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Here's a quick update of charts I've been posting and writing about for a long time using recently released data for Q1/25. For more commentary, see here. The U.S. economy is an astounding engine of growth and prosperity, no doubt about it.
Chart #1
Chart #2
Chart #3
Chart #4
14 comments:
It'd take a "Black Swan" to stop this economy.
“The financial condition of individual families is getting worse. This chart shows how much families at various income levels could afford to pay for an unexpected bill like a medical or transportation problem. Even families making $60,000 would struggle to pay a few hundred dollars without going into debt. This is more critical than we realize. The next crisis like Covid, the government won’t be able to step in like it did because of debt.”
https://x.com/JohnFMauldin/status/1934239776959250538
But at least some of us are getting really rich.
This is the impact of the dysfunction in the "globalist economy" of the past several decades. Macro variables such as averages and totals don't tell the whole story. (Medians and other stats are often more interesting.)
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GtpzoAPXAAAlo4U?format=png&name=small
John Mauldin is your source for that POV? Oh my.
"John Mauldin is your source for that POV? Oh my."
Enlighten us all with what facts he mis-stated, and feel free to tell us what those facts actually are.
Scott- Previously you mention lowering interest rates is past due. Isn't it prudent for FED to be cautious about the lagging inflation potential due to tariffs? Or is the tariff inflationary effect being overblown or priced in? thx
I have always maintained that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. Monetary policy determines inflation, not rising gasoline prices or higher tariffs on imported goods, to give two examples. So I think the Fed is over-reacting to Trump tariffs. Maybe they just don't like Trump's style. But whatever the motivation, Fed policy seems a bit too tight to me, which means the Fed is once again committing a mistake: they are late to the game, as is almost always the case. Therefore the risks of deflation and a weaker economy have increased. Trump's aggressive deportation policy is also a threat to the economy. There is no shortage of restaurant closures in So. California, as cooks and assorted personnel—most of which are of Mexican decent—refuse to show up out of fear of being detained. Two of our favorite restaurants closed their doors this past week. California's economy is already feeling the pain, and it will get worse if Trump doesn't overrule Stephen Miller.
In my experience, John Mauldin's mission in life is to relentlessly search out all the reasons to avoid making risky decisions. Perhaps he should be called a rational pessimist.
Thanks for the reply Scott. I guess the subtlety is... Could the stock of money supply already available accommodate the price rise that producers will (try) due to tariffs. But understood, in the end the FED is ultimately responsible to accommodate inflation via monetary policy only. The money supply must be available to accommodate higher prices...
Latest GDPnow estimate: 3.4 percent — June 18, 2025. The 3rd qtr. looks weaker, probably falling enough to lower the 2-year roc in N-gDp levels to a point where the FED needs to react.
Sorry for bringing John Mauldin into the discussion, Scott. I sure hope you are not dismissive of the FACTS in his post because you disagree with his opinions elsewhere. If he has his facts wrong, fine. Point them out.
I'm not questioning Mauldin's facts, and I'm sure he takes great pains to ensure his facts are correct. I'm simply pointing out that the conclusions he draws from his facts have a strong tendency to be cautious and risk averse.
When I used to read his stuff years ago he was basically a glorified marketing guy pushing his products . It was annoying and I stopped reading his stuff
Is Mauldin still a salesman?
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