Thursday, June 18, 2020

The housing market is alive and well

30-yr fixed-rate mortgage rates are back down to record-low levels: a bit less than 3.4%, according to the nationwide average calculated by the Mortgage Bankers Association (see Chart #1). And they could fall further, given that the spread between current yields and the 10-yr Treasury yield are are exceptionally wide. If past norms were to return, 30-yr fixed rate mortgages could be trading at 2.4-2.7% (see Chart #2, which shows mortgage rates and 10-yr yields on the top portion, and the spread between the two on the bottom portion).

Chart #1

Chart #2

After a sharp drop in sales in March and early April, applications for new home mortgages have surged to levels last seen almost 12 years ago (see Chart #3). The housing market is responding to incentives in a healthy fashion. The economy is still weak, but home prices needn't fall much if at all, thanks to the positive impact of low and falling mortgage rates, and given the reasonable expectation that the economy will eventually return to normal.

Chart #3

As further evidence of the housing market's resilience, the Bloomberg index of home builders' stocks is now up year-to-date, though still about 14% below its February high (see Chart #4).

Chart #4

Friday, June 12, 2020

TSA throughput is surging

The most timely indicator of just how fast the US economy is recovering has to be the TSA throughput statistics, which are released every day with only a 1-day lag. As Chart #1 shows, Americans are rapidly returning to the skies. Passenger traffic at US airports, as we can infer from these numbers, has doubled since May 16, and has quadrupled since the April 17th low. Traffic is still very low compared to last year at this time, but nevertheless things are improving rapidly.

Chart #1

Chart #2 contains data as of last week, so it's not quite as timely as the TSA data. But it paints a similar picture: people are rapidly getting back on the road.

Chart #2

UPDATE (June 18th): Here is a new and updated version of Chart #1:


I've added earlier data and I've used a log scale for the y-axis to better appreciate the rate at which things are improving. TSA is processing almost 5 times as many people today as it did at the lows of April. But there is still a long way to go to return to last year's levels. 

Thursday, June 11, 2020

How bad is the national debt?

Yesterday Treasury released budget stats for the month of May '20, and they were, as expected, godawful. A simple virus, potentiated by aggressive shutdown mandates, has caused government spending to explode and revenues to crater. Measured on a rolling 12-month basis, the federal deficit in the past two months has more than doubled, reaching the obscene level of $2.126 trillion, and it will be higher still when the June numbers are tallied. Our national debt now stands at $20.1 trillion (the correct measure being the portion that's owed to the public). As a percent of GDP, our national debt is about as high as it was during the height of World War II—about 110%, and that's as high as it's ever been in recorded history. 

The raw numbers are frightening, to be sure. But we are not doomed yet. The charts tell the story:

Chart #1

Chart #1 shows the 12-month moving average of federal spending and revenues. The past two months show a very sharp—but not unprecedented in size—deterioration in each from their long-term trends.

Chart #2
 Chart #1 shows total revenues and its major components. By far the biggest contributor to a revenue shortfall has come from a reduction in individual income tax receipts. Payroll tax receipts are quite likely to deteriorate in the current month.

Chart #3

Chart #3 shows federal revenues by month for the current and two previous years. The shortfall in April revenues was gigantic.

Chart #4 

Chart #4 shows the federal deficit as a percent of GDP, with the nominal value of the deficit (green) highlighted in green. I've calculated the value for Q2/20, but my estimate of actual number, which won't be available for over a month, is only very approximate. I'm assuming GDP in the second quarter declines at a 40% annualized rate. But it's highly likely that this quarter's numbers will be the worst in history, as the chart suggests.

Chart #5

Chart #5 shows federal debt held by the public (the correct measure excludes debt owed to the social security system). Looked at using a log scale for the y-axis over a long period, the growth of debt does not look all that unusual.

Chart #6

The huge jump in federal debt relative to GDP (Chart #6) is due not only to the big increase in debt outstanding, but also to the unprecedented decline in nominal GDP in the current quarter. We are revisiting the huge debt levels registered near the end of World War II. We survived that episode of massive indebtedness thanks to a slowdown in spending and a surge in economic growth. We could see a repeat of that performance in the months and years to come.

Chart #7

Chart # shows the true measure of the burden of our federal debt: interest payments on the debt as a % of GDP. It should come as a shock to most people: how can the burden of debt be so low when the actual debt is at record levels relative to GDP? Answer: it's because interest rates on the debt are at historically low levels. If interest rates remain low for the next two years, as the Fed recently predicted, and the economy recovers and federal spending is reined in, it should be easy to avert disaster.

The burden of federal debt is calculated the same way you would measure a household's debt burden: by dividing annual debt service payments by annual income. Overall, and as a nation, we are currently spending about 3% of our annual income on our national debt. In the great scheme of things, that is a drop in the bucket—rare is the household with such a low debt burden!

Saturday, June 6, 2020

Recommended reading

Steve Moore, a long-time supply-side friend from my Art Laffer and Jude Wanniski days, as well as the founder of the Club for Growth (of which I was a charter member), is now at the helm of the Committee to Unleash Prosperity. They put out a daily newsletter which I've been reading and enjoying. It focuses on current topics of interest and initiatives that can enhance the economy's ability to grow and (of course) prosper. Caveat: it does have a conservative bias.

You can subscribe here, and it's free.

Covid-19 is yesterday's news

The Chinese virus (aka Covid-19) is no longer a big source of concern for the market. The growth rate of new cases and deaths is decelerating just about everywhere in the world. The infection fatality rate is increasingly estimated to be as low as 0.2% or even in the range of 0.06% to 0.16%—which is similar to that of the seasonal flu. Long-time readers of this blog will remember that I first floated this suspicion in late March.

One reason it has not proven to be as fatal as originally feared could be that a significant portion of the world's population was not susceptible to the virus to begin with, due to having "resistance at the T-cell level from other similar coronaviruses like the common cold."

In any event, what was once thought to be a catastrophic pandemic is now understood to be dangerous mainly to the aged and the infirm, leaving the vast majority to pursue their lives as before; not without risk, but not condemned to huddle at home in fear. For many, the virus may even be losing its potency.

The shutdown of the US economy, which I have been calling "the most expensive self-inflicted injury in the history of mankind," is no longer a source of concern either, from the market’s perspective. (But governments may well find themselves in the crosshairs of those angry at the shutdowns; see the recent report condemning the German government's handling of the Covid-19 crisis here.) Many states are reopening, of course, but more importantly, as I've been pointing out since March 19th, key financial market and economic fundamentals have been improving on the margin, at the same time our fear of Covid-19 has been tempered. The May jobs report made it clear that the economy is doing much better than feared. It's changes on the margin, like this, that move the market.

So, as investors we need to forget about Covid-19, the shutdown, and the economy, since these are all on the mend; it's no longer a question of when things start to improve, the question now is how fast they will improve.

Looking ahead, the critical areas of concern, in my mind, are 1) can Trump recover from his currently depressed levels of approval and go on to beat Biden in November, thus avoiding the economically-disastrous policies (e.g., higher taxes, increased regulation, and multiple "green" initiatives) that Biden is proposing? and 2) can the Fed react to the dramatic improvement in the economy—and the rebound in confidence which is sure to follow—by raising interest rates in a timely fashion and thereby averting an unexpected surge in inflation?

I have already begun to address this second question here, here, and here, and at the bottom of this post, but more observation is clearly needed. I will begin to address the first question in the months to come. In the meantime it is still important to track key measures of financial and economic fundamentals, some of which I update in the following charts:

Chart #1

In Chart #1, the Vix index is a good proxy for the market's level of fear. What we have seen in recent months is a perfect inverse correlation between fear and equity prices. Fear rises, prices fall; fear declines, prices rise.

Chart #2

Chart #2 shows two market-based indicators which tend to track the market's outlook for economic activity. 10-yr Treasury yields have fallen to record lows, driven by collapsing estimates of economic activity. Similarly, the ratio of copper to gold prices (which tends to increase when the market's economic growth expectations increase) recently fell to record lows but has since rebounded. Together, these two indicators seem to be signaling a major turn for the better in the market's expectation for economic growth.

Chart #3

TSA screenings continue to rise, and are up 240%, on a 7-day moving average basis, from their April all-time lows. There is still lots of room for improvement, since at this time last year screenings were averaging about 2.38 million per day. But it's clear that activity is increasing significantly on the margin.

Chart #4


Chart #4 shows Bloomberg's index of US airline stock prices, which has turned up significantly the past few days. American Airlines stock is up 65% in the past three days. Wow. Confidence in the future is improving dramatically.

Chart #5

Chart #5 shows the spread between High Yield and Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Spreads, commonly referred to as the "junk spread," or the additional yield that investors demand to move from the relative safety of investment grade to the more risky high sector sector of the corporate bond market. These spreads have decline significantly in a relatively short period of time. The Covid-19 credit crisis has reversed dramatically. This is another way of saying that investors' confidence is returning.

Chart #6

Chart #7

Chart #6 shows the 3-month annualized rate of change in money demand, for which, as a proxy, I use the sum of bank demand and savings deposits. These deposits pay almost nothing, and thus are attractive to economic actors only as a store of value, since they are relatively default-free and liquid. These deposits have increased by $1.8 trillion (+16%) since March 9th. Not coincidentally, this is almost exactly equal to the recent $1.7 trillion increase in excess bank reserves (which reflects, in turn, the Fed's recent purchases of securities), as shown in Chart #7. What this means is the Fed's purchases have gone almost completely to support the public's sudden, increased demand for safe money.

Note also that the first three episodes of Quantitative Easing did not correspond with any sudden increase in money demand on the part of the public (the growth of money demand as shown in Chart was somewhat elevated from 2008 through 2013, but not sudden, as we have seen recently). Thus, the initial rounds of QE were mainly designed to accommodate the banking industry's demand for safe assets (e.g., bank reserves), because banks needed to shore up their balance sheets in the wake of the near-collapse of the global banking industry. This time around, QE efforts have largely accommodated the public's demand for safe assets.

Going forward, all eyes will be watching the aftermath of the recent gigantic increase in demand and savings deposits. How long will the public want to maintain these outsized deposits? When optimism returns and the demand for money declines, where will the $1.8 trillion go? The only way that money can "disappear" is if the Fed reverses its asset purchases—by selling securities and absorbing/extinguishing bank reserves in the process. If the Fed doesn't reabsorb the money it has created as the demand for that money declines, then the unwanted money will find its way into asset prices and the general price level (i.e., rising inflation). Recent increases in stock prices could be an early sign of declining money demand, but it is too early to come to that conclusion, especially since, as I noted in my previous post, the market in general does not appear to be overly optimistic.

Wednesday, June 3, 2020

Lots of green shoots

Economic fundamentals are definitely on the mend. It's no wonder stocks are rising nearly everywhere: the virus is burning out and lockdowns are ending. People are anxious to get out and go back to work, and it shows. Numerous high-frequency indicators show sharp turnarounds, and the stock market appears to be pricing in a substantial recovery. There's a whiff of a market "meltup" in the air, in the sense that those who cashed out when the cannons were blasting are now worried about whether and when to get back in. But it's not at all clear that prices are overbought or that investors are over-confident.

Chart #1

As Chart #1 shows, equity prices have recovered a substantial portion of what they lost in March. The Vix Index (fear) is still elevated however, so it's tough to say that investors are throwing caution to the wind, especially given the still-low level of 10yr Treasury yields (0.75% as of today).

Chart #2

Chart #1
Both the 10yr Treasury yield and the ratio of copper to gold prices have turned up a bit of late (see Chart #2), and this is a good sign that global economic conditions are beginning to improve. Still, there is lots and lots of room for further improvement.

Chart #3

As Chart #3 suggests, consumption of motor gasoline has rebounded significantly. This is a good measure of the extent to which consumers are still sheltering at home and working at home.

Chart #4

Thanks to aggressive Fed action to supply much-needed liquidity to the banking system, over financial conditions have improved dramatically, as Chart #4 shows. We've never seen such a rapid rate of financial healing after a recession.

Chart #5

Chart #5 shows that credit spreads have narrowed significantly and rather rapidly. When liquidity is abundant and the economy is expanding, the risks to corporate profits decline. Spreads are still somewhat elevated, but they have retreated meaningfully from the edge of the abyss.
 
Chart #6

As Chart #6 shows, Eurozone equities have also rallied significantly. However, US stocks continue to be the strongest. The S&P 500 index has outpaced its Eurozone counterpart by roughly 100% over the past decade.

Chart #7

Earnings are very likely to be weak for the remainder of the year, but even discounting that, the equity risk premium is at least 3%. Investors are still willing to give up a substantial amount of yield in exchange for the safety of Treasuries. Again, no sign here that caution has been thrown to the wind.

Chart #8

The business activity subset of the ISM service sector surveys (Chart #8) shows a significant rebound in the month of May. This should move higher still with this month's survey.

Chart #9

Chart #9 shows an index of new mortgage purchases (mortgages taken out for an initial home purchase, as contrasted to mortgage refinancings). Home sales must be doing quite well these days, despite the shutdowns.

Chart #10

Chart #10 shows the national average of 30-yr fixed rate mortgage rates. Mortgage rates for conventional mortgages have never been lower in the history of the US. However, they do have room to decline further, since the spread between this index and the 10-yr Treasury is still unusually wide.


Chart #11

On a 7-day moving average basis, TSA screeners as of yesterday had processed three times the number they processed just two months ago. Still a long way to go to get back to normal, but there is a noticeable increase in the demand for air travel.

I still worry about a potential surplus of money. Monetary expansion has been off the charts in the past two months, and that is fine as long as the market wants precautionary and safe haven money balances. But as confidence returns the demand for money will inevitably decline, and it will be critical for the Fed to respond to this by raising short-term interest rates. Whether this will play out soon or later this year is an open question.

I can point to some evidence of declining money demand which is showing up as rising prices for stocks, commodities, and risk assets in general. But as yet it's not clear that prices for any of these things is irrational, as might prove the case when and if the Fed is slow to offset declining money demand with higher interest rates. But I am keeping a sharp eye out for this.

In the meantime, the chance of an unexpected rise in inflation has probably never been so likely, given that hardly anyone is concerned about this at a time when the fundamentals could definitely support higher inflation. That increases the attractiveness of debt in general, and of real estate and other hard assets.