Tuesday, July 13, 2010

The trade picture continues to look bright

I'm on the river in Aswan, Egypt, on a mini ocean liner; tomorrow we set off down the Nile to visit various interesting things. We had a wonderful dinner tonight that seemed right out of a movie. Plus, I just discovered they have WiFi! So I thought I would make a quick post, seeing as it's after dinner and we had a big day. It's been wonderful, but also VERY hot.

US exports are growing nicely, and imports are doing even better. Double-digit growth in both means all sorts of good things are happening. Strong growth in exports, as has been presaged for a long time by outbound container exports, means that exports are adding to the growth picture in the U.S. Even stronger growth in imports means that demand has U.S. consumer demand has rebounded nicely, and it also means that foreign manufacturers are benefiting. Eventually, what is good for overseas exporters is good for overseas demand for U.S. goods and services, so this is just a good old-fashioned virtuous cycle.

I just can't seen anything to complain about in the overall trade picture.


John said...

Imports are showing increased demand in the USA. No dubbledip showing here. We are hearing much less of 'dubbledip' lately. Maybe we need to coin a new phrase: didndoit, didndoit...nah.

Scott it sounds like a great trip! Keep us 'posted' on your stops. Looking forward to pictures too!

Bill said...

Just got back from a wonderful week in Whitefish, Montana and Galcier National Park. All the fancy hotels were booked solid as well as the roadside motels. I didn't hear any folks from the rich to the plain old middle class complaining about the economy or fearing the dreaded double-dip. Everyone seemed happy to spend their money and enjoy the beauty of the place. It was nice to avoid the TV and newspapers and feel greatful for our wonderful country and all it has to offer.

Anonymous said...

Hi Scott,

The wonders of modern technology, your doing all these graphs etc from a boat in Egypt...simply marvelous,and thanks for continuing your blog while on holiday!!

I've always planned to see Egypt but never got around to it, any chance you can post some pics up of what your seeing??



Public Library said...

This will lead us right into another boom/bust. There is nothing pretty about the widening gap and it will have negative consequences when it comes home to roost.

Scott Grannis said...

travels: I hope to add some pictures soon, just haven't had enough time.

Scott Grannis said...

Public: In the absence of exchange controls and with a free-floating currency such as we have, there is nothing wrong with a trade deficit. Indeed, it is a sign of strength since it means that the world prefers to invest their trade surplus with us rather than spend their export earnings on our goods and services.

Public Library said...

China, Germany, and Japan have no other option but to goose their export markets towards the US with Europe DOA.

The funneling of monies back into the US will drive down rates and increase assets again on an even thinner US consumption base. These countries are not investing in us so much as they have no other place to park their money or export their products.

Another spectacular bust is almost assured. We already reached a tipping point, gunning for the top again will not solve our problems one bit.

Public Library said...

Here is one of your favorites, LA Port traffic. Exports flat, imports surging massively.


The trade balances are heading towards unsustainable levels again. We are caught in a cycle of insanity.

Doing the same thing over and over again hoping it turns out differently.