Thursday, May 7, 2009

Weekly claims still pointing to a bottom

Weekly unemployment claims this week came in lower than they have been in the past 13 weeks. This is now becoming good evidence that we have seen the bottom of the recession, and it probably occurred sometime in April. The labor market is no longer deteriorating.


M Miller said...

Maybe I've missed it...but I've not seen the obvious comments that this unemployment spike is so deep and quick because we are in the first real-time, just in time, employment market. In 1981, we were not real time.

Now, inventory adjustments occur within minutes, and so can plans for layoffs. Massive, targeted layoffs occurred in December, after planning in November, following real time info in October. In previous recessions, layoffs were gradual, not as targeted.

That is why I believe the unemployment rate and layoffs will stabilize quicker than in the past.

Its a new employment world unlike others in the past due to real time data. It looks scarier but is more effective and over with quicker.

Scott Grannis said...

Excellent observation! And it fits with what I have been thinking for a long time, namely that this recession could be over and done with a lot faster than most people expect.