Thursday, April 23, 2009

David vs. Goliath (2)

As recently as a little over 9 years ago Microsoft had a market cap of $586 billion, while Apple's was a mere $17 billion. MSFT investors have since lost $421 billion, while AAPL investors have gained $95 billion. In my first post on this subject last October, I suggested AAPL could surpass MSFT's market cap within a few years. One reader said it would happen in less than a year. He has a good chance of being right.

Almost 90% of the people who visit this blog use Windows-based operating systems. 74% use Windows XP, 13% use Windows Vista, and 10% use Macs. Microsoft's only significant product introduction in recent years (Vista) will soon be eclipsed by the Mac OS, I predict. Given the relative failure of Vista, it's unlikely that many XP users will switch to the upcoming release of Vista 7 for at least a year or two. Macs will likely be the computer of choice for increasing numbers of people who want to switch from XP to a more modern operating system. Windows XP is almost 8 years old, while Apple's Mac OS X will see its sixth major upgrade this year, perhaps as early as June or July. If you haven't tried a Mac recently, you really should. And did I mention that there are no Mac viruses to worry about?

Full disclosure: I own several Macs and am long AAPL at the time of this writing.


Louis Cyphre said...

Mr. Grannis, Apple products are very nice. More importantly, they are perceived as cool by many hip people. But I believe their prices have to go down quite a bit before they become as popular as Mr. Gate's paraphernalia.

Scott Grannis said...

Many people have done cost comparisons between Macs and comparably-equipped (including software) PCs, and in most cases Macs cost the same or less. If you factor in the value of your time spent fixing and maintaining a computer, Macs are much cheaper.

In any event, I would note that, despite apparently higher prices, Mac sales have been growing much faster than PC sales.

Those who prefer PCs to Macs because they appear to cost less are doing themselves a disservice.

Mark A. Sadowski said...

I've got four computers at home, all on Vista. It's a little complicated getting Vista set up to your liking but once it's done right there's nothing like its networking ability.