Wednesday, April 8, 2009

Brazil is bouncing

Measured in dollars, Brazil's stock market is up 57% from its lows of Nov. 21st, 2008, whereas the S&P 500 is up only 10%. Brazil's market had previously lost about 70% of its value, since Brazil was at the apex of the global financial storm: commodity prices had been crushed, the dollar was rebounding, and investors were unwinding carry trades. All of those pressures are being reduced now: the dollar today is about the same as it was in late November, commodity prices are generally higher, and investors and speculators have had plenty of time to unwind carry trades and deleverage. There is plenty of upside in emerging markets if the global economy simply avoids depression and deflation, and by the looks of things, a modest recovery appears to be getting underway.

Full disclosure: I am long shares of SLAFX and EMD.

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