tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.comments2024-03-18T13:22:06.536-07:00Calafia Beach PunditScott Grannishttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comBlogger34523125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-63338073129170882042024-03-18T13:22:06.536-07:002024-03-18T13:22:06.536-07:00A couple of very obvious items that those in power...A couple of very obvious items that those in power knew about, but chose to be tyrannical instead of "following the science"- related to children, which makes it especially evil.<br /><br />1. their guidance about masks was riddled with errors, especially with respect to children. Having significant occupational training in respiratory protection, I can say that when Tony Fauci said itwkevinwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17600473578823788550noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-78064060536247420272024-03-18T12:02:03.391-07:002024-03-18T12:02:03.391-07:00I always forget something!
Leftists learned that ...I always forget something!<br /><br />Leftists learned that scary boogeyman like Covid enabled them to enact their beloved fascism for a few years. A better boogeyman than global warming.Honest Climate Science and Energyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00396590662292537071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-65792550881443592842024-03-18T11:55:49.422-07:002024-03-18T11:55:49.422-07:00All known before Covid showed up
Missing is you c...All known before Covid showed up<br /><br />Missing is you can not effectively for a respiratory disease that mutates and you can't develop a safe vaccine in 9 months. The Covid shots have been the least safe and least effective shots in history There is no statistical evidence to show they saved any lives. And much evidence their serious adverse side effects were 50x worse than any prior Honest Climate Science and Energyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00396590662292537071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-91735218136947594372024-03-17T10:15:33.065-07:002024-03-17T10:15:33.065-07:00The FED's technical staff doesn't know a d...The FED's technical staff doesn't know a debit from a credit, etc. The FED will cut their administered rates when the O/N RRP facility empties out. And @ 413.877, we are close to that date.Salmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-29956907499305467712024-03-16T10:17:21.725-07:002024-03-16T10:17:21.725-07:00“The Pandemic Housing Boom increased the price of ...“The Pandemic Housing Boom increased the price of starter homes a whopping 45%.” Unless you include asset prices, you mis-judge inflation.<br /><br />Bernanke brought down real-estate prices by a long-term contractionary money policy. Rent will converge with house prices. The FED needs to continue with its tight money policy. But interest rates have little to do with a change in either Vt or M,Salmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-31988888231361197492024-03-16T10:00:54.616-07:002024-03-16T10:00:54.616-07:00Data quality is always a big issue. There are 3-4...Data quality is always a big issue. There are 3-4 rent price indices and they are up to a couple percent apart in their estimate of rental inflation. There's also the timeliness aspect of data quality. <br /><br />People forget that the Case-Shiller index was only introduced in ~ 1980. There are some estimates of nation-wide residential real estate prices that pre-date that, but their wkevinwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17600473578823788550noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-70624467704236845202024-03-15T03:53:38.984-07:002024-03-15T03:53:38.984-07:00The Fed tends to fight the last war.
Personally,...The Fed tends to fight the last war. <br /><br />Personally, I would rather see 3% inflation as measured and economic growth, than 2% inflation and a stagnant economy. <br /><br />Yes, housing is a national catastrophe, spelled out every month for renters and most buyers. <br /><br />Somehow property zoning needs to be killed off, and go to free markets...but that is a tall order. Benjamin Colehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14001038338873263877noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-30408874368334160822024-03-14T12:44:19.369-07:002024-03-14T12:44:19.369-07:00Rent is still going up. N-gDp is too fast.Rent is still going up. N-gDp is too fast.Salmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-62524014709253746472024-03-14T12:23:35.028-07:002024-03-14T12:23:35.028-07:00PREACH!PREACH!Downtown Adam Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07019897390680887031noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-91787833797951812532024-03-14T07:35:41.548-07:002024-03-14T07:35:41.548-07:00Powell should be fired. PPI up 6% mo-to-mo
Contra...Powell should be fired. PPI up 6% mo-to-mo<br /><br />Contrary to the FED’s technical staff, retail MMMFs are nonbanks.<br /><br />In my 1958 Money and Banking text. “Purchases and sales between the Reserve banks and non-bank investors directly affect both bank reserves (outside money) and the money stock (inside money).”Salmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-39077377955903102502024-03-14T07:04:30.837-07:002024-03-14T07:04:30.837-07:00Any thoughts on PPI?Any thoughts on PPI?Royhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09325498485905547125noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-46485601603951740192024-03-13T19:01:56.041-07:002024-03-13T19:01:56.041-07:00The FED doesn't strive to maintain a continuit...The FED doesn't strive to maintain a continuity with their numbers/time series. But the people that watch the numbers will always find the FED's errors.Salmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-21472681286007972342024-03-13T14:37:39.830-07:002024-03-13T14:37:39.830-07:00Re "Do you really believe the official inflat...Re "Do you really believe the official inflation numbers are accurate?" Yes I do, but with some qualifications. I've been working with macroeconomic statistics every day since 1980. While at times I have doubts, I do believe that it is nearly impossible for the government to fudge any subset of the numbers consistently without problems showing up elsewhere. So "reasonably Scott Grannishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14028519647946868684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-23773105995690932002024-03-13T14:28:55.428-07:002024-03-13T14:28:55.428-07:00@steve j
You asked: "What am I missing?"...@steve j<br /><br />You asked: "What am I missing?"<br /><br />Perhaps you're missing that the blue line on chart 1 does not really show "Housing Prices" (although that's what the blue label says). As the post explains, "the blue line is the year over year change in home prices."<br /><br />You note that the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Brent Bucknerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14754659334435107746noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-88913193512246884972024-03-13T09:50:15.018-07:002024-03-13T09:50:15.018-07:00Scott, No quibble with your post. The perspective ...Scott, No quibble with your post. The perspective of the “man on the street” is that food prices, which we have to pay at least weekly, are at 30 yr. highs as a percentage of disposable income (per the USDA). So the perception that inflation is too high and is hurting us remains in place.Matt from Clevelandhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02887188782465239693noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-28819181113056251942024-03-13T09:39:33.675-07:002024-03-13T09:39:33.675-07:00Do you really believe the official inflation numbe...Do you really believe the official inflation numbers are accurate?geoffrobinsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14949411893531888555noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-5099051083486956142024-03-13T09:26:48.066-07:002024-03-13T09:26:48.066-07:00Both short and long-term money flows contract in t...Both short and long-term money flows contract in the last half of the year.Salmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-51615823354394958912024-03-13T09:24:33.122-07:002024-03-13T09:24:33.122-07:00See: The Mechanics of Fed Balance Sheet Normalizat...See: The Mechanics of Fed Balance Sheet Normalization - FRB-STL<br /><br />"The Fed has to watch how take-up at the O/N RRP facility will evolve, as a quick shift into (out of) the facility could drain (boost) reserve balances."<br /><br />I.e., Powell doesn't know a bank from a nonbank, money from mud pie. MMMFs are nonbanks. Including MMMFs in M2 double counts the money stock.<Salmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-6094011177069018592024-03-13T09:17:45.007-07:002024-03-13T09:17:45.007-07:00re: "I think Powell knows all about these lag...re: "I think Powell knows all about these lags."<br /><br />Powell doesn't know squat. To eliminate stagflation, you drive the banks out of the savings business while draining reserves. The 1966 Interest Rate Adjustment Act is the paradigm.Salmo Truttahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13910212017849902362noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-44040796414635189062024-03-13T09:01:55.928-07:002024-03-13T09:01:55.928-07:00The dynamics of the cycle of the economy are diffi...The dynamics of the cycle of the economy are difficult to model. Here we are in 2024 saying that nobody has a good model. That is a statement of malpractice in the academic practice of economics, at minimum. <br /><br />Having said that, I think Powell knows all about these lags. He/the Fed don't know enough about the economic cycle to predict the effect(s) of items like savings draw downwkevinwhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17600473578823788550noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-10913622207853748012024-03-13T08:44:41.599-07:002024-03-13T08:44:41.599-07:00Who cares? Inflation has already done its damage. ...Who cares? Inflation has already done its damage. Personal saving is down over 40% over the past 4 years, according to the January data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Yeah, that's right, down over 40% from PRE-PANDEMIC levels. The lack of savings is going to drive economic results much more than tweaks to inflation.Jameshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05404564044322857558noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-57239888688361670142024-03-13T08:31:43.403-07:002024-03-13T08:31:43.403-07:00Scott, I've always appreciated your attempts t...Scott, I've always appreciated your attempts to be objective and I have found great value in your analysis. Having said that - I look at my own situation, I am locked into a 30-year mortgage with a low rate...so my housing costs have not moved an inch over the whole period of inflation...and yet, month after month my costs for other things are going up. So I see your graphs and charts that Adam Kruegerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12460938738580518447noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-28011790114435047802024-03-13T05:58:41.813-07:002024-03-13T05:58:41.813-07:00Looking at the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S....Looking at the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index - I don't see prices falling. What am I missing? <br /><br />Dec 2023 310.668<br />June 22 308.265<br />March 21 244.234 <br /><br />Also, I live in New England and prices have not come down much. Steve J.https://www.blogger.com/profile/08979644103279069994noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-5825303976744517262024-03-13T05:47:04.103-07:002024-03-13T05:47:04.103-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Steve J.https://www.blogger.com/profile/08979644103279069994noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616959642391988608.post-54692077782445789952024-03-12T11:08:08.688-07:002024-03-12T11:08:08.688-07:00Looking at the household data, there were only 600...Looking at the household data, there were only 600,000 jobs created in the past year. There were about 600,000 government jobs created in the past year. This is not a good sign.Junkyard_hawg1985https://www.blogger.com/profile/18114117558513498514noreply@blogger.com