Monday, July 29, 2013

Stocks track truck tonnage

It's not surprising: the inflation-adjusted value of U.S. equities has closely tracked the amount of tonnage carried by U.S. trucking services, according to data compiled by the American Trucking Association. Truck tonnage is a reasonable proxy for the size of the economy, so it makes sense that as the economy expands the value of U.S. businesses should rise. At times stocks appear to overshoot or undershoot truck tonnage, but that is likely due to the vagaries of human emotion which tend to magnify the ups and downs of the business cycle.

With truck tonnage up almost 6% in the year ending June 2013, the expansion of the U.S. economy may actually be greater than suggested by the GDP statistics, which, when released later this week, will probably show that the economy grew by about 2% over the same period. GDP growth statistics may be registering a bit on the low side due to the relatively dramatic shrinkage of the public sector during the past four years. Regardless, the ongoing physical expansion of the economy reflected in rising truck tonnage is encouraging.

The recovery is real; it is not a figment of Fed policy or the result of fiscal "pump-priming."

Newest tongue twister: "stocks track truck tonnage"


William said...

I would be interested to see the periods of US recession overlaid on this chart. I was wondering if truck tonnage drops before recessions begin or after recessions have started.

Benjamin Cole said...

Fun charts. I have always liked looking at truck tonnage, and also railroad volumes. Port volumes tell stories too.

The recovery is real---just too slow.

The Fed has loosened the monetary noose around the economy's neck, but that is about all.

theyenguy said...

Well today Today, May 29, 2013, the known desire to taper has alarmed investors who perceive that the world central bankers have lost control over interest rates. Liberalism’s debt trade seen in the ratio of Junk Bonds, JNK, relative to US Ten Year Government Bonds, JNK:TLT, has reached its zenith. And Liberalism’s master currency carry trade, the EUR/JPY, has topped out once again and is falling sharply lower as is seen in Action Forex EUR/JPY Daily Outlook for July 29, 2013 with a value of 129.991

The short selling opportunity of a lifetime has developed. Look for strong derisking to come out of fiat asset invesment leaders, such as these forty, XIV, FDN, CARZ, PBS, IGV, IBB, RZV, PSCI, PBD, PPA, IAI, SPHB, SMH, XRT, PJP, EWN, PSP, UJB, KRE, TAN, RXI, WOOD, FLM, LNKD, LYG, ,MFG, BPOP, SLM, JPM, NNI, UBS, BLK, NMR, MKTAY, PSUN, DORM, GE, IP, CHTR, and ING, seen in this Finviz Screener.

The 300% Bear Stock Market ETFs, seen in this Finviz Screener, EDZ, YANG, RUSS, DPK, MIDZ, ERY, TZA, SOXS, and DRV. have all turned higher.

And the 200% Bear Stock Market EFTs, seen in this Finviz Screener, BIS, FXP, SQQQ, SDD, EEV, EFU, KOLD, SMDD, SSG, DUG, EWV, SRS, CMD, SKF, SDP, have all turned higher.

Given the failure of credit that has recommenced Monday July 29, 2013, I believe that the fastest rising bear market ETFS, will be TZA and SSD, as these are based inversely of the Small Cap Stocks, RZV, which are the most credit sensitive of all stocks.

Perhaps one might enjoy my article World Stocks Fall Lower From An Elliott Wave 5 High In Front Of FOMC Meeting …

Benjamin Cole said...

The Yen Guy-

Richard Fisher, FOMC board member-Dallas President, went super short back in 2010, to the tune of several million dollars, according to public disclosure documents.

Didn't work out for him; indeed he took a bath. Soiled his reputation too.

Going super short is dicey. Meanwhile, we seem to be in a glacial growth mode.

I think property is a good bet, and have said so for a couple of years.

If Obama appoints Summers as Fed chief, we could see the Dow tank, if Summers tightens money and says only federal deficit spending can work.

If Summers indicates that is his belief and he will implement his beliefs, than I would also go super-short.

Rob said...

Even better: "Scott states: stocks track truck tonnage".