Thursday, May 10, 2012

Claims back on track

Weekly claims for unemployment came in as expected, and as this chart shows, the seasonally adjusted level of claims and the 52-week moving average both still appear to be trending down. On an unadjusted basis, claims last week were almost 15% below the level of a year ago, which is actually quite impressive. Taken together, these numbers confirm that the downtrend in this series is still intact, and the upward surprise of a few weeks ago was the result of faulty seasonal adjustment factors.

It is also impressive that the total number of people receiving unemployment insurance has declined by 1.2 million, or 16.8%, over the past year. This means that more people are finding jobs, and also that more people have a greater incentive to find and accept jobs. On the margin, the dynamics of the labor market are still positive.


Anonymous said...

Dog Short is showing the 52-week MA of unadjusted claims at 390K???

vg said...

... or perhaps MORE people have given up looking for work, and are receiving other forms of transfer payments? The numbers of people applying for, and receiving, SSI Disability is growing at record levels.

Benjamin Cole said...

Glacial progress.


The dollar declined against other currencies, but mostly from 2000 to 2008. Since then it has roughly landed.

But since start of 2008, oil went to $147, back down to $47 and then up to $100.

Are you sure US domestic monetary policy has anything to do with global oil prices? Seems like other factors must outweigh Fed policy by 20 to 1.