Just about the entire world economy is in the grips of reflation. What's reflation? My definition of reflation is when economic activity and prices are all moving higher. Economic growth is returning to almost every country in the world, and almost all commodity prices are rising. Reported inflation is still "tame," but inflation expectations are rising. The Fed has determined that they want inflation to be higher, and they are getting their wish.
This now poses an excruciating dilemma for most investors: while it is certainly nice for prices and economic growth to be increasing, this creates significant risks for fixed income investors, since eventually interest rates will have to rise as well. 10-yr Treasury yields have already risen from a low of 0.5% to now just over 1.3%, but they will have to go much higher still to be competitive with inflation, which will soon be running at a solid 2% per year, on the way to perhaps 3-4%. But as interest rates rise commensurate with the return of inflation, that will subtract significant support from equity prices. And once the Fed decides that inflation has moved up by "enough," whatever this is, then short-term interest rates are almost surely going to rise, and significantly. That's otherwise know as "tight" money, which has traditionally been anathema to the equity market, and eventually to the economy.
The Fed's current monetary policy stance, in short, is not sustainable. Sooner or later they will be yanking the punchbowl. Many observers realize this, but no one knows how long the current situation can last. The Fed has convinced the bond market that short-term interest rates are going to be pegged at extraordinarily low levels for the next two years. I sincerely doubt the Fed will be able to stick to this promise.
And then there is the issue of fiscal policy, which seems almost like a runaway train under the leadership of President Biden (with an assist from not-so-conservative Republicans). Our national debt is now 100% of GDP and likely to rise further if Biden gets his wish. That sounds outrageous, but it's not really a problem—for now, at least—because the cost of servicing that debt is very low, a mere 2.3% of GDP, thanks to extremely low interest rates (courtesy of the Fed).
The thing to worry about is the direction of fiscal policy, which will almost certainly bring us higher taxes, increased regulatory burdens, and more expensive energy.
To be fair, higher inflation combined with today's very low interest rates will lighten Treasury's debt burden significantly over time. Treasury reaps a bonanza with every bond it sells, since interest costs are less than inflation across almost the entire yield curve, while inflation lifts income and revenue streams which in turn increase tax revenues. A good deal of today's debt can be paid off with cheaper dollars tomorrow. Of course, that also means that those holding Treasury debt are losing money every year—in the form of lost purchasing power. Bond investors don't like that, but most institutional fixed-income investors don't have the ability to dump bonds in favor of higher-yielding equities. So it's like watching a train wreck in slow motion.
Unfortunately, it's never a good idea for the public sector to "steal" money from the private sector via an inflation tax. Argentina has been doing that for generations now, and the economy and its people are a wreck. People catch on: capital leaves for safer locations, money is poured into inflation hedges, and long-term investment projects face higher hurdles because of greater uncertainty. The poor and the ignorant among us suffer the most. Already we see commodity prices, real estate values and equity markets levitating.
Potential disaster is not imminent, but it is certainly on the horizon. No one with foresight is sleeping easy these days.
Some charts to round out the story:
Chart #1
For the past three decades there has been an impressive correlation between 10-yr Treasury yields (the benchmark for nearly all global bond yields) and the ratio of copper to gold prices, as shown in Chart #1. Copper prices rise as global economic activity picks up, and although you might expect gold to rise with inflation expectations, that is not always the case. In fact, it could be argued that gold prices rose some years ago in anticipation of the rising inflation that we are seeing today. Moreover, stirrings of economic life and higher interest rates pose challenges to holding gold, since it pays no interest or dividends and must be stored. This chart suggests that interest rates are only just beginning to turn higher. Copper and nearly every other commodity are up quite strongly since last March; crude oil prices have nearly tripled over the same period.
Chart #2
As Chart #2 shows, for the past 15 years gold prices have been highly correlated with the price of 5-yr TIPS (the chart uses the inverse of their real yield as a proxy for their price). It also suggests that gold tends to lead TIPS prices. Gold prices started to decline last year, and recently we have seen signs that TIPS prices are beginning to decline (i.e., real yields are starting to rise after hitting the extremely low level of almost -2%). Real yields also tend to rise as economic activity picks up. It all ties together.
Chart #3
Chart #3 shows two measures of corporate credit spreads, which are a good barometer of the outlook for corporate profits. A growing economy and rising prices are good news for most businesses, and the outlook for corporate profits is robust; that's why spreads are quite narrow.
Chart #4
Chart #4 compares the nominal and real yields of 5-yr Treasuries; the difference between the two is the market's expectation for what the CPI is going to average over the next 5 years. Here we see that inflation expectations have soared since last March, and now exceed 2.3%. For reference, the CPI ex-energy has risen about 2% per year for the past decade.
Chart #5
On the pessimistic side of the ledger we have a big and fairly recent decline in small business confidence, as shown in Chart #5. Confidence soared following the election of Trump in late 2016, and it has almost completely reversed thanks to Biden's promise of higher taxes and more regulations. The economy is is likely to continue growing, but it's not going to be growing at a gangbuster level. I discussed this in my previous post, and I continue to think that 2% annual growth is the best we're going to see for the next several years.
Chart #6
Chart #6 shows how much the current level of air travel has dropped from the same period a year ago (i.e., pre-Covid). Air travel has not improved very well in recent months and is still almost 60% below the levels of a year ago. This speaks to the lack of confidence on the part of consumers and individuals in general. It's reasonable to expect things to improve for the rest of the year, but it will likely take a long time to get back to what used to be "normal" levels.
Chart #7
Chart #7 shows the number of daily new Covid cases in the US as of yesterday. Things are really improving! And not just in the US: most countries around the world are seeing similar improvement, and this can only get better as vaccinations spread. My friend Brian Wesbury has a nice collection of Covid-related charts and factoids
here, one of which shows that more than 40% of the US population has most likely already acquired Covid-19 immunity. In the US, daily new cases are down 65% in the past month, and in California, daily new cases are down a whopping 80% over the same period. Why aren't we hearing more about this? This is fantastic news, so why is Biden still preaching doom and why are so many teachers still afraid to go back to school?
Chart #8 shows why Fed tightening has invariably led to recessions. Fed tightening happens when real yields rise (blue line) and the yield curve flattens (red line). Note that every recession on this chart has been preceded by a big increase in real yields and a big flattening or inversion of the yield curve. It should also be clear that these two critical predictors of recession are nowhere close to the point at which we should become worried. As I said before, disaster is not imminent, but it is on the horizon.
Chart #9 shows that the current burden of federal debt is historically low, despite the fact that federal debt equals 100% of GDP, a level not seen since the days of WW II. It's all about today's very, very low interest rates. A cynic might argue that the Fed is keeping interest rates extremely low in order to bail out Treasury and support politicians' urge to pass "stimulus" bills which threaten to add yet more trillions to our national debt. (But do remember that fiscal "stimulus" of the sort that hands out money and subsidies and tax breaks to favored groups and industries does almost nothing to create real stimulus. Real stimulus requires policies which create incentives for people to work and invest more. Sadly, no one is even thinking about genuine stimulus these days. Old-fashioned "stimulus" such as Congress is currently considering will only sap the economy's strength over time.)
Finally, Chart #10 shows the current state of the equity market. Fear is still out there, but not excessively so, and so prices continue to drift higher.
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