Friday, October 2, 2020

Top charts

Here's a quick review of important charts recently updated:

Chart #1

Today's September jobs report was viewed by some as evidence that the recovery was slowing. I've always argued that private sector jobs are much more important than public sector jobs, and they increased by an impressive 887,000 in September (vs +661,000 total jobs). Chart #1 focuses on these two sources of jobs, and both use a y-axis with the same ratio. What stands out immediately is that private sector jobs have grown much more than public sector jobs in the past 12 years, and in recent months. Private sector jobs have now recovered about 54% of the losses that occurred due to the Covid shutdown, whereas public sector jobs—despite Census hiring—have rebounded by much less, and are actually lower today than they were prior to the Great Recession. I'd say the private sector recovery looks pretty much like a V-shaped recovery. More than half the jobs lost have been recovered in just 5 months! And meanwhile the public sector has been slow to recover, one more sign that the private sector is inherently more dynamic than the public sector.

Chart #2

Chart #2 makes the same point: the unemployment rate has reversed much more than half its rise in just 5 months. 

Chart #3

Yesterday's ISM report provided further evidence of rapid recovery. Both the US and Eurozone manufacturing indices have rebounded very strongly from their Covid lows, and both are now consistent with relative healthy economic growth conditions. Note that the Eurozone suffered much more than the US as a result of their early and drastic lockdowns, which in the end did little or nothing to eradicate the virus. 

Chart #4

As Chart #4 shows, Sweden continues to shine. Its refusal to order drastic lockdowns not only allowed its economy to flourish relative to its locked-down neighbors, it allowed the virus to run its course in a relatively short period of time.  Daily covid-related deaths have been extremely low for the past two months or so, even as Swedes have enjoyed the freedom to travel, work, and socialize, all while eschewing those dreadful masks that do nothing to filter out viral particles. It all adds up to pretty good evidence that Sweden has achieved herd immunity. I hasten to add that deaths per million in Sweden (583 per Worldometer.com) put it lower than Belgium, Spain, USA, UK and Italy, and only somewhat higher than other Eurozone economies. BUT, with a much lower overall cost in terms of reduced economic output, lost jobs, unemployment, stress, suicides, etc. And Sweden currently looks like one of the few countries in the world that has "beat" Covid.

Chart #5

Chart #5 shows that swap spreads continue to signal very healthy liquidity conditions and very low systemic risk in both the US and the Eurozone. By this important—and often leading—indicator, the fundamentals look great.

Chart #6

Chart #6 shows two all-important measures of the Fed's monetary policy stance. The real Fed funds rate (blue) is decidedly negative (which implies very easy monetary conditions), while the slope of the Treasury yield is positive. Low real rates and a positively-sloped yield curve strongly suggest we are in the early stages of what could prove to be an extended recovery. At the very least it's safe to say that the Fed poses no risk to the economy for the foreseeable future. Note that all previous recessions were preceded by high real rates and a flat or inverted yield curve slope.

Chart #7

As Chart #7 suggests, the equity market is still somewhat cautious, with the Vix fear index still trading at elevated levels, and prices today about the same as they were prior to the Covid crisis. The Treasury market is even more cautious, given that 10-yr Treasury yields (currently less than 0.7%) are extremely low. The demand for security is still very strong.

58 comments:

is100 said...

Unfortunately -- the US is not Sweden Bro...

Joost said...

Wishful thinking of a cheerleader for a chaotic administration now in crisis.

The Cliff Claven of Finance said...

Let's not cherry pick Sweden and mislead about what happened thete.

Neighbors Norway and Denmark had much better results concerning deaths and hospitalizations. Also much of Asia, outside of China.

All nations had death rates spike in the spring and then fall a lot, not just Sweden -- including the US, although you might not hear it in the news. Death rates are now approaching seasonal flu levels as doctors learned how to keep patients alive. Thete is still much suffering for about 600 of 1000 infections while deaths are only about 1 of 1000 infections. The 1 of 1000 seem to get all the attention while the 600 of 1000 are often ignored.

Sweden's economy (real GDP) fell 7 percent in the first half of 2020 which is not particularly good.

Sweden failed to protect nursing homes.

Swedish schools were locked down for children age 16 and up.

The other Swedish "partial lockdowns" were from people there VOLUNTARILY avoiding businesses where social distancing was difficult or not possible -- that's why their economy declined almost as much as the US in the first half of 2020.

In the earlier part of 2020, when it was very cold, people in China had little reason to fly to Sweden and spread their disease. Many flew to Italy and US, who were both hit hard. The disease went where planes from China went.

The continual attacks on masks is an anti-science conspiracy theory -- they don't do much but they do reduce the spray distance when an infected person coughs, sneezes or hollers. Useful indoors when other people are in the same room. If a wearer does not cough, sneeze or holler, the mask has done nothing ... but make the wearer uncomfortable. I bought 10 masks in March and used the fifth one today for a fifth doctor visit. I see people running outdoors wearing masks and can't believe it.

It's clear to me that after the first months or teo, the partial lockdowns caused excessive economic damage. The stock market is up from a Fed engineered 25 percent increase in the money supply over the past year, which needs its own chart, or a chart of Fed Credit.

There are still over 26 million people collecting unployment compensation, including federal programs where significant lost paid work hours allows people to collect, not just having zero hours of eork. That's only down from the peak of 32 million in May and reflects economic damage BETTER than the BLS unemployment rate or the S&P500 index.

The partial lockdowns after May had no scientific justification and were an unprecedented theft of our freedom.

Wishing President TRUMP and the first lady a speedy recovery

ebg investor said...

Scot, thank you for the post.

EHR said...

Agree with most of the above, but would argue that the negative conclusions @Sweden remain early for another 6-12 months guesstimate.

Buy Low then Sell High said...

People are looking to get back to normal.

JDonley said...

Scott, i appreciate your "glass is half full and getting fuller" rather than "glass is half empty and evaporating". keep up the good work.

wkevinw said...

There are still so many unknowns that each side cherry picks whatever country they like to show that whatever doesn't or does work: masks, social distancing, lockdown, big testing numbers, contact tracing, it goes on.

Sweden's experience is still pretty confusing. Japan is also in that category. Evidently they didn't do much to change everyday life, and have been extremely successful.

The thing that has definitely gotten better is the medical therapy. The case/motality rate has plummeted. That is always a flawed measure early in the epidemic because of low quality testing data: number of tests, accuracy of tests, etc.

My opinion: masks and social distancing work. Because they aren't perfect, the data are "statistical/probability"- oriented, so again, each side will cherry pick.

Having said that, total lockdown MUST be avoided. There needs to be some kind of compromise, featuring protection of at-risk people.

Scott Grannis said...

A good discussion of Sweden's corona virus' strategy from the NY Times:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/29/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-strategy.html

Benjamin Cole said...

Yet another great post by Scott Grannis.

It is just overwhelming to ponder Sweden...consider the millions unemployed, the small-business people crushed, the family and religious meetings not held.

And for what?

Holsinger said...

The Financial Times attempts to capture Excess Deaths due virus. I can't verify their methodology, but they show US with 273,000 thru late August, Sweden with 5700 thru early September, Norway with 300 thru late August, and Denmark with 500 thru mid August.

https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938

Henry H said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Henry H said...

Sweden hit a 3 month high in new cases. As the weather gets colder, people are doing more inside. There is less eating outdoors. If cases continue to rise in October, there will be a spike in deaths in November due to the lag in reporting.

Sweden(-8.6%)'s 2nd quarter GDP growth is worse than neighboring countries, Norway(-6.3%) Finland(-3.2%).

Steve said...

This is the only blog that points out the supply of money is being met by the demand. All the goldbugs et. al merely mention the huge supply "money printing bad" without discussing the demand.

Tom Nugent said...

So, don't limit your analysis to Sweden and the focus on only one country. Let's jump over to Taiwan with 27 million people and seven, yes that is seven, deaths from the virus. News stories tell us that the Taiwan success was due to preparation for such an event, something the U.S. was cavalier about.

amritsari said...

"dreadful masks that do nothing to filter out viral particles". An economics blogger is giving epidemiological advice. Be careful folks.

Henry H said...

If the comparison is strict controls compared to loose controls, then South Korea's 2Q gdp of -3.2 was impacted less than Sweden's 2Q gdp of -8.6.

Sweden's cumulative deaths per capita is worse than 40 other European countries.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

randy said...

What do we know about Lael Brainard?

CrackRed said...

Admiring the dedication you put into your blog and the detailed information you present. It’s awesome to come across a blog every once in a while that isn’t the same unwanted rehashed material. Fantastic read! I’ve bookmarked your site.



adobe xd cc crack
adobe illustrator 2020 crack

Chanchal said...


Mcafee antivirus acts as a shield of the device. It protects against viruses, malware, online threats etc. You can download, install and activate mcafee.com/activate with activation code. mcafee antivirus provides protection from viruses, hackers, spyware and more harmful websites. If you want to protect your devices against harmful data, download mcafee antivirus by visiting themcafee.com/activate website. For more information, you can contact our team by visiting the website mcafee.com/activate. Our time wi

Chanchal said...


If you need any assistance related to this, you can contact our team at amazon.com/mytv . Our entire team will be available to help you. For more information go to this link amazon.com/mytv. Amazon Instant Video Application is a very fun application.The Amazon My TV Code program requires the customer to have an Amazon account and a streaming device or TV. Amazon Prime Video is available on almost all streaming devices like Roku, Amazon Fire TV, Chromecast. All you have to do is go to amazon.com/mytv and activate amazon.com/mytv with the help of Amazon's activation code. You can visit our website amazon.com/mytv for details of the entire process.

Chanchal said...

The Amazon My TV Code program requires the customer to have an Amazon account and a streaming device or TV. amazon.com/mytv Amazon Prime Video is available on almost all streaming devices like Roku, Amazon Fire TV, Chromecast. For this you just have to go to Amazon and activate amazon with the help of amazon.com/mytv . You can visit our website amazon.com/mytv for details of the entire process.

Chanchal said...


People's media needs can be met through the Amazon Prime platform. Amazon Prime is a subscription service, which can be subscribed by going to the link amazon.com/mytv . To know more about this you can visit the given link and also subscribe You can visit our websiteamazon.com/mytv for details of the entire process.

Chanchal said...

Amazon Prime vedio through primevideo.com/mytv is accessible to owners of streaming platforms and devices like Chromecast, Fire TV, Amazon TV, and Roku, among others.If you eagerly wanted to know what is primevideo.com/mytv then the answer is amazing. It is more than a fast delivery option. Amazon Prime is a subscription service provided by the primevideo.com/mytv with unlimited entertainment with lots of other benefits.

Chanchal said...


Once you successfully purchase Ms. Office Equipment, you will get an office.com/setup , in which you must enter the key. Download and install MS 365 in your PC with the help of the website given by us and provide the best office.com/setup for your office. To install theoffice.com/setup , click on the link given by us.

Chanchal said...


An account associated with Office is required to install or reinstall Office. For that, sign in to office.com/setup and get your office.com/setup from Office Setup. Enter product key for office setup. You can follow the instructions given by us to activate office.com/setup with product key. There is a new Sensatin office in the MS office market.

Chanchal said...

To setup and download the Hp priter driver software, visit our website 123.hp.com/setup . The 123 hp setup HP printer makes printing hassle-free and easy. Install the hp printer on your Windows or Mac computer and install the drivers via 123.hp.com/setup . For more information, contact our team at 123.hp.com/setup . We are always available to help you.

Chanchal said...

To setup and install your 123 HP printer go to 123.hp.com/setup for mac . For installation of drivers, seek help immediately from the website 123.hp.com/setup . We’ll help you download the right HP printer software and drivers. Be sure to install cartridges, load paper and power on the printer. Download the 123.hp.com/setup to get the recommended software for your printer.

Chanchal said...


Roku provides the simplest way to stream entertainment on your TV. roku.com/link is the official site to link, activate, set-up and manage your Roku player or Roku TV. A Roku account gives you access to an amazing selection of movies, TV shows, music and you can watch TV shows and movies online from the roku.com/link channel store. For more information, visit the website roku.com/link and enjoy.

Chanchal said...

Once the device is found, you can add roku paid channel or roku channel from roku.com/link with activation code store. Connected to your TV screen roku.com/link . And will start displaying some instructions to activate roku. You will then receive an activation code for Roku. After that you have to connect Link roku to roku.com/link . You can choose from your favorite channel roku.com/link.

Chanchal said...

Using a Canon printer service phone, you can get a full installation of the canon.com/ijsetup printer and go to the installed Canon printer to download the canon.com/ijsetup driver. To get more and more information, visit our website canon.com/ijsetup and get the information according to convenience .

Download the Canon printer from canon.com/ijsetup and set it up on your device. Canon printers are all in one printer that facilitates print, copy and scan. And to download canon.com/ijsetup printer drivers you can visit our website Canon.com/ijsetup. Canon printers are designed for personal and business use. To learn more about Canon printers, visit our website canon.com/ijsetup and take advantage.

Chanchal said...


If you have forgotten the password for your Apple ID, then you have come to the right place to reset the forgotten password. Go to your Apple ID account page and enter your Apple ID and click on apple.com/recover And if you remember your Apple ID password, you can sign in with one of your trusted devices and create a new apple.com/recover . For this go to your Apple ID account page and sign in with your password and trusted device. For more information on Apple ID, you can visit our website apple.com/recover and through this you can also stay connected with us.

Chanchal said...

Select Login on screen, then Activate on Computer. Go to your account page (logged in) and check out espn on your devices section, or go to espn.com/activate directly. First of all espn.com/activate . When you open the Hulu app, the espn activation code will be on your TV. If your account needs activation then it will be displayed online on your screen then you can install it by going to espn.com/activate In this way you can use the espn app.

Chanchal said...

HBO Max offers TV shows, blockbuster movies, and new Max Originals to its users. Visit hbomax.com/tvsignin and choose your subscription plan and start streaming with hbo max. Go to hbomax.com/tvsignin and follow the simple procedure to create an account for hbomax. Hbo max is easy to setup and connect with your smart tv. To know more details about hbo max setup and sign up visit its official website: hbomax.com/tvsignin and complete the steps for setup.

Download the HBO Max on your device to experience excellent sound and video quality of unlimited movies, shows and much more with hbomax.com/tvsignin .For more information visit our website

Chanchal said...


The Amazon Prime Activation Code is a six digit alphanumeric code that can be found on your TV screen when you click on “Register” on amazon.com/mytv .Amazon prime paid for online streaming services used at amazon.com/mytv Gives users access to a variety of services such as instant delivery.Search for “Amazon” to find the amazon.com/mytv app.Get more information

Chanchal said...

Go to amazon.com/mytv and create your Amazon account.For this you just have to go to Amazon and activate amazon with the help of amazon activation code. You can visit our website amazon.com/mytv for details of the entire process.Amazon Prime is a subscription service that caters to the media needs of people through the Amazon Prime platform. amazon.com/mytv Notifies visitors about topics such as Register TV, Amazon Prime TV and MyTV code.

Chanchal said...


You can use the Amazon Instant Video application on your smart TV or by installing a digital media player or video game console, which will be given by the link amazon.com/mytv in my TV description. If you need any assistance related to this, you can contact our team at amazon.com/mytv . Our entire team will be available to help you. For more information go to this link amazon.com/mytv Amazon Instant Video Application is a very fun application.

Chanchal said...

Amazon Prime TV and MyTV code. To register your device on the Amazon website you go to our website amazon.com/mytv and enter the given code.People's media needs can be met through the Amazon Prime platform. Amazon Prime is a subscription service, which can be subscribed by going to the link amazon.com/mytv . To know more about this you can visit the given link amazon.com/mytv and also subscribe.

Chanchal said...

Prime video is a subscription service that caters to the media needs of people through the primevideo.com/mytv platform. primevideo.com/mytv Notifies visitors about topics such as Register TV, Prime video TV and MyTV code. To register your device on the Prime video website you go to our website primevideo.com/mytv and enter the given code.

Amazon Prime vedio through primevideo.com/mytv is accessible to owners of streaming platforms and devices like Chromecast, Fire TV, Amazon TV, and Roku, among others.If you eagerly wanted to know what is primevideo.com/mytv then the answer is amazing. It is more than a fast delivery option. Amazon Prime is a subscription service provided by the primevideo.com/mytv with unlimited entertainment with lots of other benefits.

Chanchal said...

Bet 365 is an international betting company and one of the oldest online resources created for betting. To access the bet365 login page, if you are new, you need to know more about Bet 365's bet account. You can visit our website " bet365 login " to get more information about Bet365 and access the bet365 login page.

Chanchal said...

netgear router login - NETGEAR has its own service of websites,netgear router login i.e., routerlogin.com and routerlogin.net. netgear router login sites will work particularly only when accessed from NETGEAR routers. These websites allow users to access their consoles by username rather than IP addresses.For more netgear router login information, visit our website

Chanchal said...

The Canon printer enhances scan functionality, and includes a robust security feature set. Using a Canon printer service phone, you can get a full installation of the ij.start.canon and go to the installed Canon printer to download the ij.start.canon . To get more and more information, visit our website ij.start.canon and get the information according to convenience .

The Canon IJ Network Tool is a free application that allows you to set, view, or configure the printer's network settings that are connected through the network. For more information about this, you can visit our website ij.start.canon . And using the Canon printer service phone, you can get the complete installation of the ij.start.canon and go to the installed Canon printer to download the ij.start.canon .

Chanchal said...

Download the Canon printer from ij.start.canon and set it up on your device. Canon printers are all in one printer that facilitates print, copy and scan. And to download Canon ijsetup printer drivers you can visit our website ij.start.canon . Canon printers are designed for personal and business use. To learn more about Canon printers, visit our website ij.start.canon and take advantage.

Chanchal said...

Using a Canon printer service phone, you can get a full installation of the ij.start.canon and go to the installed Canon printer to download the ij.start.canon . To get more and more

Chanchal said...

Canon printer is the best printer out of all printers. Which allows for the best print, copy and scan. Canon printers are designed for personal as well as commercial use. You can visit the ij.start.canon website to download the Canon printer driver. To get rid of any type of problem related to Canon printers, you can contact our team at ij.start.canon . For more information about Canon printers, you can visit ij.start.canon and get the information as per your convenience.

Chanchal said...

You can visit the ij.start.canon website to get information about Canon Multifunction Printers, Canon Printers Dealers, Retailers, Stores and Distributors. Download the driver or software for the printer scanner. To install your additional Canon driver or software, go to the ij.start.canon link and follow the steps on it. To get more information about it, visit our website ij.start.canon and enjoy.

Chanchal said...

The Canon printer enhances scan functionality, and includes a robust security feature set. Using a Canon printer service phone, you can get a full installation of the ij.start.canon and go to the installed Canon printer to download the ij.start.canon . To get more and more information, visit our website Canon Printer Drivers and get the information according to convenience .

Chanchal said...


To setup and install your 123 HP printer go to HP Printer Drivers for mac . For installation of drivers, seek help immediately from the website HP Printer Drivers . We’ll help you download the right HP printer software and drivers. Be sure to install cartridges, load paper and power on the printer. Download the HP Printer Drivers to get the recommended software for your printer.

Chanchal said...

Canon printer is the best printer out of all printers. Which allows for the best print, copy and scan. Canon printers are designed for personal as well as commercial use. You can visit the Canon Printer Drivers website to download the Canon printer driver. To get rid of any type of problem related to Canon printers, you can contact our team at Canon Printer Drivers . For more information about Canon printers, you can visit Canon Printer Drivers and get the information as per your convenience.

Canon printer is the best printer out of all printers. Which allows for the best print, copy and scan. Canon printers are designed for personal as well as commercial use. You can visit the Canon Printer Drivers website to download the Canon printer driver.For more information visit our website

Chanchal said...

We will help you download the correct HP printer software and drivers. Which includes Windows, MacOS, iOS and Android. You can then install your HP Printer Drivers . For installation of drives, you can take help of our website HP Printer Drivers . A printer driver is software that your computer uses to talk to a physical printer, which may be connected to your computer or another computer on your network. You can download printer drivers and software from our website. You can visit this site to install printer setup. you can take help from our website HP Printer Drivers .

Chanchal said...

We will help you download the correct HP printer software and drivers. Which includes Windows, MacOS, iOS and Android. You can then install yourHP Printer Drivers . For installation of drives, you can take help of our website HP Printer Drivers. A printer driver is software that your computer uses to talk to a physical printer, which may be connected to your computer or another computer on your network. You can download printer drivers and software from our website. You can visit this site to install printer setup. you can take help from our website HP Printer Drivers .

Chanchal said...


To setup and download the Hp priter driver software, visit our website HP Printer Drivers . The 123 hp setup HP printer makes printing hassle-free and easy. Install the hp printer on your Windows or Mac computer and install the drivers via HP Printer Drivers . For more information, contact our team at HP Printer Drivers . We are always available to help you.

To setup and install your 123 HP printer go to HP Printer Drivers for mac . For installation of drivers, seek help immediately from the website HP Printer Drivers .

Chanchal said...

You can visit the Canon Printer Drivers website to get information about Canon Multifunction Printers, Canon Printers Dealers, Retailers, Stores and Distributors. Download the driver or software for the printer scanner. To install your additional Canon driver or software, go to the Canon Printer Drivers link and follow the steps on it. To get more information about it, visit our website Canon Printer Drivers and enjoy.

Chanchal said...

The Canon printer enhances scan functionality, and includes a robust security feature set. Using a Canon printer service phone, you can get a full installation of the Canon Printer Drivers and go to the installed Canon printer to download the Canon Printer Drivers . To get more and more information, visit our websiteCanon Printer Drivers and get the information according to convenience .

Chanchal said...

Using a Canon printer service phone, you can get a full installation of the Canon Printer Drivers and go to the installed Canon printer to download the Canon Printer Drivers . To get more and more information, visit our website Canon Printer Drivers and get the information according to convenience .

Chanchal said...

To setup and download the Hp priter driver software, visit our website HP Printer Drivers The 123 hp setup HP printer makes printing hassle-free and easy. Install the hp printer on your Windows or Mac computer and install the drivers via HP Printer Drivers . For more information, contact our team at HP Printer Drivers . We are always available to help you.

Chanchal said...

Get your office setup from office.com/setup . If your version of Ms Office setup came with your PC, you can download or order a latest version from office.com/setup . You can also set up an office with a 25-digit activation code. For more information, you should visit our website office.com/setup

Chanchal said...

Disney Plus is one of the most popular streaming services in the world right now. You can go to Disnetplus.com/begin and activate your disney now for watching TV shows and movie ,you can also play games. you can also Disnetplus.com/begin to watch disney channel With which you can watch full episodes of your favorite Disney Junior and Disney XD shows .