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"Blue Truth Matters" by Heather MacDonald
Heather MacDonald is a fount of statistical wisdom, one of the best I know. This essay of hers appeared a few days ago on The American Mind, a website run by The Claremont Institute, whose website is also a fount of wisdom, and whose mission is to promote "the philosophical reasoning that is the foundation of limited government and the statesmanship required to bring that reasoning into practice."
Here's an excerpt:
The American public is clueless about how disproportionate violent street crime is. Even hearing the numbers makes many well-meaning whites uncomfortable, though no one seems to cringe when law enforcement is accused of a reign of racist terror.
The press touts the fact that blacks are two and a half times more likely to be fatally shot by the police than whites. Predictably, that favored statistic uses the irrelevant population benchmark. Substitute a homicide benchmark, and the ratio reverses. When homicide rates are taken into account, whites are three times more likely than blacks to be fatally shot by an officer.
28 comments:
Dear Scott,
please update truck tonage vs. S&P500. The gap is widening in my opinion.
Re truck tonnage: the gap has indeed widened, and by a significant amount. But given the nature of the US shutdown—completely unexpected, largely arbitrary, and unprecedented—and considering the long lag built into the data (we're almost at the end of September, but the latest datapoint is July) it is not surprising that reported truck tonnage has been slow to respond both to the downturn and the upturn. So I don't think this chart is particularly useful at this time. If anything, the data this year suggests that truck tonnage is a seriously lagging indicator.
The BLM movement will unalterably ruin race relations for at least 2 generations. A disastrous tragedy. All young Black Americans are being taught that every less than ideal outcome is because of the racist system, never, ever, personal choices. And being taught they are always justified in resisting police. Any parent knows that is bad parenting that will result in worse outcomes for young people. The truth about that, and the true statistics about policing, seems so patently obvious. I get the media selling space with panic porn. I get politicians being corrupt with power grabs. But I don't get the highly intelligent, well meaning public that buys in to BLM whole cloth. I just don't. My best guess is that progressive group-think has become a substitute for religious faith for too many people.
A society without racism is one where color of skin is no more interesting than hair color. This progressive movement is doing exactly the opposite. Highlighting our differences and framing all interactions as a zero sum conflict.
The link is down to the "blue truth matters" article. I did not understand the point you were trying to make: what is the difference between homicide and population?
What I don't understand is why we don't see cellphone videos or bodycam videos of white Americans being killed by police if the raw numbers of those killed by policy are white? Are all white Americans killed by police justifiable uses of force so bystanders don't post them on social media? Does questionable uses of force only happen against black Americans. Seems statistically impossible.
I read the Blue Truth Matters article and Heather MacDonald makes valid points. She should take her analysis a step deeper and normalize her race data against other factors, poverty rates, for example. Poverty rates for black teens are three times higher than whites. This surely affects crime rates.
Concerning truck tonnage
Railroad intermodal trailers and containers data lead truck tonnage data and they were higher in August 2020 than in August 2019, the best news I've seen recently along with new home sales. RR data for the latest week was also higher than the same week a year ago, so the good news is continuing.
Heather MacD is brilliant but the link does not work. I wrote an article on the subject a few years ago using Washington Post and FBI data. Back then white suspects who resisted arrest were twice as likely to die than black suspects who resisted arrest. So if you were going to resist arrest, you would be better off being black because that would have cut the possibility of being killed in half. Police officers were obviously reluctant to kill black suspects resisting arrest fearing they will lose their jobs or be prosecuted or be called racist more often than if they killed a white suspect who resisted arrest. A quick look at Washington Post current data shows black suspects who are arrested are STILL less likely to be killed than white suspects as a percentage of the violent crime they commit. Remember that black men commit a lot of crime so deaths as a percentage of arrests must be usef.
Note that if a suspect grabs the cops gun but can't get it, and the cop shoots him, the suspect is still considered "unarmed".
I wrote an article on Critical Race Theory, which is the demonization of white people, related to Marxism, which is the demonization of the owners of capital. and published it a few days ago at:
www.ElectionCircus.blogspot.com
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-tariffs/some-3500-u-s-companies-sue-over-trump-imposed-chinese-tariffs-idUSKCN26G31G
"About 3,500 U.S. companies, including Tesla Inc, Ford Motor Co, Target Corp, Walgreen Co and Home Depot have sued the Trump administration in the last two weeks over the imposition of tariffs on more than $300 billion in Chinese-made goods."
This link works... https://americanmind.org/features/ending-the-blm-revolution/blue-truth-matters/
great work.. love your blogs..
Property agent
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/landlords-sue-cdc-trump-administration-over-unconstitutional-national-eviction-moratorium-2020-09-23
"At least two lawsuits filed in federal court argue that the national eviction moratorium issued by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Trump administration earlier this month is unconstitutional."
Ian, re George Floyd's death: You might be interested in this alternative analysis of Floyd's death. Seems to me that he likely killed himself with a lethal drug cocktail:
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/09/who_killed_george_floyd.html
The manifestations of the BLM movement seem entirely counterproductive to me. Primarily all rage and clearly crazy demands. But there are genuine threads more related to excess force; unreasonable protections for the excess force; using police where other services may be a better solution; negative effects of the war on drugs; etc. For a more useful view from the Black perspective, this was a good podcast. (If I could have beers with one person, it might be Larry Wilmore... he's fantastic)
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/binge-mode-weekly/id1243247464?i=1000492659755
There is a reason BLM exists. If you don't see it, you're simply not trying very hard.
The point is not that the police themselves are bad. It's that the police, and the entire justice system, are an institution whose existence perpetuates systemic racism. This is not difficult to recognize if you have even a slight interest in understanding the truth. People have always feared 'the other', and this is just something we all have to deal with. It doesn't mean we're evil, or have bad intent. It just means there are things we can do better.
This study below is specific to Massachusetts. It doesn't always yield the answers one would expect, because racism is a difficult topic.
http://cjpp.law.harvard.edu/assets/Massachusetts-Racial-Disparity-Report-FINAL.pdf
It's true that few of the people arrested were anything close to saints. Yet, despite MacDonalds' claims, there is also at least one extensive study about Chicago policing that indicates whites resist more frequently, and die in custody less often. I don't have time or inclination to chase that link down, but my point is that this isn't anywhere near as clear cut as her post would seem to indicate.
At the same time far too much is expected of the police. They are expected to be experts in several specialties when responding to various types of calls. This is what many people mean by 'defund the police'. It's about redirecting resources to where many issues like mental health can be more directly addressed.
The really sad thing about Heather MacDonald's piece is that rather than tackle the issues head on, and use her statistical familiarity to navigate the very real issues, she falls prey to denial, picking sides in a battle where both parties are doing their best to do the right thing, yet both can improve.
The systemic racism in this nation is mainly black Americans falsely blaming white Americans for their personal shortcomings.
Concerning police, data CLEARLY shows police are significantly less likely to kill a black suspect resisting arrest, ad a percentage of suspects resisting arrest.
Concerning colleges, black applicants are accepted with significantly lower grades than Asian or white students.
Many black people from all around the world move To the US. Why?
No other nation has laws that discriminate in favor of black citizens.
BLM is an anti-white racist orgsnization, led by self-proclaimed Marxists who believe in the racist critical race theory and encourage violence with false claims about the police. Fewer polive and less funding for police, that BLM suppporys, would be a disaster for poor neighborhoods. They seem to have no interest in black deaths caused by black men. They only care about the very few black criminals resisting arrest who ate killed by police -- less than one dozen on a typical year. One dozen black deaths by gunfire would be a typical tbree day summer "weekend" in Chicago ... but BLM could not care lesd.
Black Americans are their own worst enemied. The crime they commit, the single parents having out of wedlock babies living on welfare rather than a father's paychecks, are not the fault of people. Those behaviors hurt white people just as much ... but they never blame black people for their personar shortcomings
"Will you shut up, man!"
"Keep yapping, man"
"liar"
"racist"
"this clown"
"You're the worst president that America's ever had!"
So much for Biden being the "decent" & "honorable" candidate in the race. His handlers are worried Trump's gonna bait him into even worse crudity.
I did not watch the debate because I judge people by accomplishments rather than speeches or debates. In the morning my wife and her good friend, the only two women I know supporting Trump, were disgusted by Trump's behavior. I dobut if they even heard the policy statements. If other white women feel the same way, Trump is in big trouble. I'd like to think the stock market rise the next day showed Trump won the debate ... but I'm not sure anyone won that debate. Excerpts on a conservative radio show -- Dennis Prager-- made Trump seem very reasonable but other news stations will be biased for Biden. We get a huge number of Biden ads here in Michigan -- just meaningless platitudes from a man whose main accomplishments were making himself and his family of grifters rich.
Cliff Claven, that's a classic "born on second base and thought you hit a double' statement. You're simply incorrect. From slavery to jim crow to the structure and impact of the legal system, to segregation, to token minorities... it's extremely well documented. Cultures don't go through that kind of experience unscathed. This stuff is so well known, it doesn't need references.
You're looking for confirmation of your pre-existing beliefs in a surface knowledge of facts, which hell, most of us do this all the time, but this is a topic that deserves a deeper dive. The statistics themselves are often hard to interpret. If more blacks resist arrest, is it because of their behavior, or because of officer's perception of their likelihood of guilt, regardless of that actual likelihood? However, this isn't the forum for it though, I'll leave it at that. I take no personal responsibility for the sins of the past... but I also am not going to ignore their impact in our society. Reply if you want, I'm leaving it at this.
Wow - can we take a good outlook?
"... the “black middle-class is disappearing” as we hear all the time, but it’s because middle-income black households in the US are gradually moving up to higher-income groups, and not down into lower-income groups as the mainstream media and leftists (but I repeat myself) would have you believe. In 1967, only 9.1% of black households in the US earned $75,000 or more (in 2019 dollars). In 2019, 29.4% of black households had moved up into that high-income category, a new record high. In other words, over the last half-century, the share of black households earning incomes of $75,000 or more (in 2019 dollars) has more than tripled as that share increased by 3.2 times over the last half-century!"
https://www.wsj.com/articles/cheer-up-america-11601497698?st=60s8std7tb6sqiu
https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/more-charts-and-commentary-on-last-weeks-census-bureau-report-on-income/
Flying Roobarb
Your very polite character attack on me was without specific details.
Black Americans commit way too much crime.
That is not the fault of white Americans.
In fact white Americans are too often the victims of black criminals
while white criminals rarely pick black victims.
Blacks are arrested a lot because they commit so many crimes.
If black suspects resist arrest, that is their personal choice and they might be killed.
But far more white suspects are killed as a percentage of those resisting arrest.
If the police are racist, then the data show they are racist against white criminals.
I live in a world of facts, data and logic, Flying Roobarb, not your leftist feelings and beliefs.
Prove my conclusions are not based on data and I will change my conclusions.
Slaves, by the way, were sold into slavery by BLACK leaders in Africa, and there is still some slavery in Africa, thanks to some Muslims living there. I'm sure you will be protesting about that soon?
Cops rarely get away with killing people Cactus Future, but they so have to make instant decisions to protect their lives and sometimes their reactions, when viewed long after the emergency situation, looks wrong. Not intentionally wrong. But a wrong "split second decision". You take a job as a cop and see how you do.
Scott, there were two autopsies on Floyd and both found that he died of homicide. That's good enough for me. As usual, you think you know better than the experts.
Ian,
I suggest you go back and read the official autopsy carefully. Floyd had significant quantities of Fentanyl and Meth in his blood. The videotape also shows him complaining that he can't breath when he is in the back seat of the police care unrestrained by the police officers, a clear marker of Fentanyl poisoning. I think it will be very difficult for the prosecution to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that the police officers murdered Floyd and that the drugs wouldn't have killed him regardless of the knee on this neck. Is it possible that a jury will ignore or discount this evidence and convict? Of course. But it's not a clear case by any means.
Ian, re "experts." In my lifetime I've seen hundreds, if not thousands, of so-called experts that were in fact ignorant of their subject. I've become so cynical of "experts" that when I see someone labeled as such I automatically prepare myself to disregard anything they say. Anyone who blindly trusts experts is doing him or herself a disservice, and that's putting it kindly. Every Floyd autopsy makes it clear that he had a lethal dose of fentanyl in his system, on top of several other co-morbidities. He began saying he couldn't breathe well before any cop's knee touched his neck. I could go on, but I'll leave it to you to form your own opinion.
Floyd was a career criminal who spent many years in prison for a violent crime against a woman. Floyd was a heavy drug user who passed a fake bill and resisted arrest, not allowing the police to close the back door of the police car so he ended up handcuffed and on the ground. The knee on the side of Floyd''s neck did not stop his breathing, as he was repeatedly talking.
However a person having difficulty breathing should never be placed face down on his belly. If any officer was leaning on his back in that position, that could have killed him. The original call to the police said Floyd was high on something. After being handcuffed Floyd needed an ambulance, not being face down on the sidewalk. That may be police negligence. This was not murder. The world is certainly better off withot a criminal like Floyd. The city may be better off with most of those four policemen out of the force. I don't consider them the cause of the drug related heart attack of a very unhealthy Floyd.
Scott, I like your reference to the problems of "experts." It just so happens that that is the trend in the agenda. I noted that on the Atlantic Council website, they do not list their employees as "staff" or "the team". No, they are called (drumroll), "The Experts."
The predator class are pushing for an authoritarian "The Experts" with everyone else as the Mute peons. The Experts give a big "how dare you!!" if you question their authority or the settled "Science." 'Settled Science' being one of their most clownshoe oxymoronic scams.
Scott, the fact that you've gone through your life finding all of the experts wrong doesn't mean that they were wrong in most cases. Rather, it means that you're an egotist who adheres so dogmatically to his view of the world that he can't hear any challenge to it. Rather than evaluating the evidence on an issue impartially, you look around to see if there's a single published writer who supports your opinion, and having found that writer, you declare the matter settled. That's what you've done on climate change and coronavirus, and now you're doing it with George Floyd and BLM.
Ian, I don't understand why you waste your time reading Scott's blog. What exactly is your purpose? It is clear you are not here to be informed, so you must be here to instruct, warn and protect the rest of us from Scott's heresies. Apparently, you consider yourself to be an expert listener to experts. Instead of your hurling worthless insults, why don't you deal with the substance of the conversation? That would be much better and more profitable to the rest of us.
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