Friday, August 7, 2020

Is a 50% recovery in 3 months just chump change?

I'm hearing some analysts say the July jobs report was disappointing because it shows the economy still has a huge number of people out of work. That's true: the unemployment rate has only come down from a high of 14.7% in April to 10.2% in July, and that's still way higher than February's low of 3.5%. To bolster their case, they also note that seasonal adjustment factors overstated the job gains in July. That's true too: the non-seasonally-adjusted employment growth figure rose by only 591K in July vs. the seasonally adjusted headline figure of 1763K.

So: is this glass really half empty? Let me explain why I see it as half full.

Chart #1

Chart #1 is my long-time preferred measure of the health of the jobs market: the level of private sector jobs on a seasonally-adjusted basis (the private sector is where all the economy's dynamism comes from). From a high of 130 million in February, jobs fell to a low of 109 million in April. They have since increased to 118, and that represents a recovery of 9 million jobs, or 43% of the total loss. To be fair, you could say that since the economy has recovered only 43% of the jobs it lost, the economic glass is half empty.

Chart #2

However: Chart #2 shows the non-seasonally-adjusted version of Chart #1. Here we see that jobs fell from a high of 128 million in February to a low of 108 million in July, and they now stand at 119 million. That's a recovery of 11 million jobs, or 55% of the total loss. So by looking at the raw data, one could argue that the glass is more than half full. To be fair, let's average the 43% of jobs recovered using seasonally-adjusted data with the 53% of jobs recovered using non-seasonally-adjusted data and say that in the past three months the economy has recovered about half the jobs lost in the Covid shutdown catastrophe.

Is this just chump change? Just how lousy is a 50% recovery of the jobs lost during a deep and painful recession in just 3 months? Consider the recession of 2008-2009, which you can see in Chart #1. The total job loss from the 116 million high in December '07 to the 107 million low in February '10 was 9 million. Coming out of that Great Recession, it took the economy about two years (until early 2010) to recover half of the jobs lost. Today's economy has bounced back very quickly by historical standards. You might even call it a "V" shaped recovery, no?

I think it's very impressive, especially considering the huge headwind that Congress' $600/week bonus unemployment payout created. I pointed this out in early May, by the way. That bonus of $600/week effectively gave a raise to about two thirds of those collecting unemployment—they made more by being unemployed than they made while working. In effect, the government was giving millions of workers a raise and at the same time telling them to take a 3-month paid vacation, because the bonus $600/week would extend through August 1st. So despite very generous unemployment benefits, roughly half of the unemployed have returned to work! I won't be surprised to see stronger job gains in the months to come, thanks to the loss of $600/week that has now kicked in.

Unless, of course, Nancy Pelosi has her way and extends the $600/week bonus through the end of the year. If Trump has his way instead, he will direct the IRS to stop collecting payroll taxes through the end of the year (he would then promise to sign legislation next year to forgive these taxes). This would be very bullish, because it would not only increase the after-tax wages received by all those who work, it would also reduce the after-tax cost to employers of every worker. Employers would have a significant new incentive to re-hire or add to their workforce, and employees would have a new incentive to find a job and/or go back to work.

Pelosi's plan would be a disincentive to growth, Trump's plan (championed by my long-time friend Steve Moore at the Committee to Unleash Prosperity) would instead incentivize growth.

There is reason to be optimistic.

Now for some quick updates to charts I'm watching on a daily basis:

Chart #3

As Chart #3 shows, the stock market has recovered almost all of its Covid/shutdown losses, and investors' fear levels have fallen significantly. The market is looking across the valley of despair in the belief that a recovery is underway and we will eventually return to some semblance of normality within the foreseeable future.

Chart #4

Chart #4 compares the price of gold to the price of 5-yr TIPS (using the inverse of their real yield as a proxy for their price). Both of these utterly different assets are in a sense safe-havens. Gold protects against the unknown and is considered by many to be a hedge against inflation. TIPS are default-free and promise investors a government-guaranteed inflation hedge (their effective yield is the sum of actual inflation plus their real yield). Both work as a safe port in a storm. That both are soaring in price is a sign that investors these days are willing to pay a steep price for protection. Risk aversion, in other words, is alive and well.

Chart #5

Chart #5 shows the nominal and real yields on 5-yr government bonds (red and blue), and the difference between the two (green), which is the market's implied inflation expectation over the next 5 years. Note that pretty much all of the rise in expected inflation this year is due to a decline in the real yield on TIPS. Investors are paying up for inflation protection, as Chart #4 also shows, but expected inflation is still expected to be relatively tame (currently just 1.5% per year) from a historical perspective. If anything stands out on this chart, it is the unusually low level of real yields. Real yields are heavily influenced by current and expected real growth rates in the economy, as shown in Chart #6, so this is a sign that the market is still quite concerned about the long-term outlook for economic recovery.

Chart #6

Chart #7

As Chart #7 shows, airline passenger traffic was roughly flat for most of July, following a fairly dramatic recovery in April, May, and June. The latest data hint at a resumption of growth. To be fair, this chart does not support the view that the economy is still in a v-shaped recovery mode.

But it's not unreasonable to think that the so-called "second wave" of Covid new cases and new deaths, shown above, which sparked renewed attempts by a number of states to roll back their re-openings, was the reason economic growth appears to have stalled (as Chart #7 suggests) in the past month. If that's true, then we can take heart from the fact that new cases appear to have subsided of late (which further suggests that new deaths are likely to soon peak). This reduces the need for continued restraints on state economies.

In my view it's terribly unfortunate—and rather scary from a libertarian viewpoint)—that state and local authorities have resorted to draconian measures (e.g., shutting down churches, gyms, and many restaurants) to hobble their economies in a vain attempt to "beat" the virus. I have not been able to find anyone who can marshall compelling evidence that lockdowns improve Covid outcomes. Most statistical analyses I have seen find no relation between the degree of economic lockdown and the number of deaths from Covid.

In our understandable and collective rush to save lives and deny the virus, we are tragically ignoring a fundamental truth of economics. Thomas Sowell, arguably our greatest living economist, put it simply: “There are no solutions, there are only tradeoffs.” Viruses can’t be “beat,” they can only be slowed down or minimized. Locking down an economy today may postpone deaths but it can’t eradicate the virus. Most importantly, economic lockdowns incur terrible costs, as we now know, that are measured in trillions of dollars of lost income, tens of millions of lost jobs, hundreds of thousands of bankrupt businesses, and countless lives lost to other diseases and suicides.


The Cliff Claven of Finance said...

I expect optimism here and it is very
Refreshing but there are misleading data
In this column that would change the

On Thursday we were told 32 million
Americans were collecting unemployment
checks. That is about 20 percent unemployment.

Today we were told the unemployment rate
Was about 10 percent by a different
Government department.

A weekly survey by the Census Bureau
Strongly suggests the 32 million
Unemployed is the correct number.

This is a huge difference.

I believe the 10 percent unemployment
Number is economic fraud.

I bet today's employment report
Mentions the *gig workers* getting
Federal unemployment benefits
In the details or footnotes just
Like last month's report but does
Not include them in the
Unemployment rate.

I assume 32 million Americans
Getting unemployment checks
Are really unemployed.

Ignoring this conflicting
Government data issue
Would be economic fraud
Because 32 million tells
A completely different

No offense intended
To Mr Grannis but
The data say the US
Unemployment has NOT
changed much from the

Benjamin Cole said...

Per usual, great post.

Thank goodness for Scott Grannis' optimism. Certainly, we need a lift.

I am reserved. Have we ever seen such wretched government or media in the US? Local and state governments lockdown entire economies in the face of a virus that almost exclusively threatens the elderly with co-morbidities, and media defines riots as "protests."

Innumeracy is rife. The media informs the public there is a string of racist murders by police officers, and that racism defines the entire profession. Yet there are 800,000 law enforcement officers in the US. If one out of a 1000 officers is a racist, you have 800 bad cops on the beat. That is very regrettable, and can lead to a string of racist incidents, when measured and publicized nationally. But you show me any profession where the bad guys can be culled out to below one in 1,000.

Entire news organizations, such as the Washington Post, the New York Times, CNN and MSNBC, have become self-righteous but balance that by excessive wackiness and perfidiousness.

On a happier note, I have been pushing for payroll tax holidays for years, as the first response to any recession, and triggered whenever unemployment rises above, say, 4%. The Fed can buy Treasuries and place them into the SS Trust fund to make up for lost revenue. This requires some changes in law, but hardly violates the laws of physics.

Would such payroll-tax holidays lead to too-much inflation? Hard to say. Globally inflation has been in retreat for decades ad decades, and deflation lurks in the Far East presently.

The fire to fight now is unemployment. And please, end lockdowns policies.

honestcreditguy said...

no vaccine has ever been created to 100% defeat a Corona virus.....ever...hopium is being sold in a form of virus that will help 30% of population. The self induced government depression that is coming is going to rip the hearts out of most Americans, ill prepared they be.

China and Russia have now reduced dollar trade to less than 50%, it was 90% 4 years ago....
Right now if your not preparing for what is coming in 2021 then shame on you. No matter the winner of an election that will turn this country into Venezuela on steroids...

pretty much 30% of every Mortgage, credit card and auto loan in America is in forbearance, it ends OCT. 1rst. Will they kick the can further down the road.....

America is now a dystopian wonderland full of debt pushers and credit junkies....Only a Jubilee will save it, being prudent and credit smart is probably the worst rational decision a person could have made in last 15 years......

Hell is coming.....worse then most Americans alive since 1960 have ever will shake the very fabric of the nation.....Gold will see $3500 possibly higher, I have been in since 1150....still buying....54 Silver to boot

Fred said...

Who's going to buy your gold in an economic collapse? Or, are you just expecting to trade it for a loaf of bread?

"It is not given to human beings-happily for them, for otherwise life would be intolerable-to foresee or to predict to any large extent the unfolding course of events."

Winston Churchill

Grechster said...

I think Trump just won the election (with the payroll tax cut). He is showing, by his action, just how badly the Dems have abandoned the working man. Twenty-four primary contestants and not one advocated reducing or eliminating this regressive tax.

Give the man some credit - this was a brilliant political move. The fact that he had to do it with the Dems kicking and screaming just adds to its clarity.

I'm very much looking forward to hearing from Benjamin and JBD!

Benjamin Cole said...


As stated above, I much favor the payroll tax cut.

The 2020 presidential election strikes me as up for grabs. One might posit both parties are trying to lose.

I hate to be so cynical, but I wonder if the Donks like lockdowns so they can wreck the economy on Trump's watch?

Yes, the Donks have gone over the deep end on identity politics and PC-ism, and forsaken anyone who works for a living and make less than, say, $200k a year.

There is a strange alliance between Donks, China-money, globalists and professional grievance groups. The NBA (No Balls Association) will put "BLM" on its courts and go mute on anything China.

As an aside, I like the sentiments of Will Rogers, when he said "I never met a man I didn't like." By that I mean, never judge a book by its cover, give benefit of the doubt, and try to walk a mile in the other guy's shoes.

But geez, when there are only two left shoes....

honestcreditguy said...

Fred, A lot of banks and a lot of merchants....
2000 years of proof, 10X longer than every reserve...

Churchill, he would laugh at the folly of today....
the just released a murderer from prison on life because of a flu.....a rapist they just released only took 24 to kill his accuser....
welcome to America the insane....

I guess everything is cool.....draw up M2 and GDP....a cross first time coming I see,,,

Scott Grannis said...

Cliff Claven: Don't know where you're getting your facts. The latest figure (as of 7/24/20) for those collecting unemployment is 16.1 million. That's down 9 million from the high in early May. Total employed has increased from a low of 130.3 million in April to now 139.6 million. These two sets of numbers of very consistent with each other.

Scott Grannis said...

Yesterday Trump “trumped” Pelosi by directing that the unemployment bonus payment be $400 instead of her $600. That would sharply reduce the number of people making more by being unemployed than they would returning to work. But more importantly, he also directed Treasury to suspend payroll taxes for all those (apparently) making less than $4000 every two weeks. This equates to a meaningful stimulus for the economy, and should reboot the growth momentum that was temporarily stalled in July. Good news all around! Trump also did an end run around a gridlocked Congress. That should go in the plus column for leadership.

randy said...

Good point regarding Trumps end-around. Must make Pelosi furious. However, the suspension of payroll taxes is of course less than it sounds. It is a deferral, with the taxes supposedly due in arrears... sometime. As an employer, I might not participate in the deferral because it puts me at risk of paying the back taxes if employees can't or won't or quit when the taxes come due. In reality it's maybe a good gamble for Trump that Pelosi can get trapped into passing legislation to make the deferral permanent. But what a mess. As a property owner I'm less enthused about the "eviction moratorium". As with the payroll tax deferral, what's supposed to happen when the deferral is over? Who will be on the hook for the lost rents? As an aside, I have a very nice, smart, young woman employee that was telling about her small apartment complex forming a group to have a "rent boycott". This is from someone that has been fully paid to work from home and is at no risk of losing that. Landlords are robber barons.

Federal money for everyone and everything.

randy said...

Re: federal money for everyone - I'm getting more comfortable with Andrew Yang Freedom Dividend. If it could be done such that it would consolidate the myriad of social support programs into a single program of limited free health care and cash - at least it would be transparent.

Of course it would never happen that way... its the Freedom Dividend on top of everything else.

Scott Grannis said...

Randy: Let’s stipulate the payroll tax holiday takes effect, because Trump can legitimately order it to happen and he has. Now fast forward a few months. What politician would campaign on a pledge to enforce the payback when Trump is promising to forgive the non-payment? I think it would be extremely difficult for any politician to make that argument this year as well as next year. The government is spending money will-nilly for that matter, and the payroll tax holiday could be chalked up as just another expense. But it would be a worth expense since it would likely strengthen the economy, create jobs, and eventually boost tax collections.

Benjamin Cole said...

I love the payroll tax cut.

I propose that lost revenues can be offset by having the Federal Reserve buy treasury bonds and place them into the Social Security trust fund.

Perhaps this will cause some inflation, perhaps not.

Payroll taxes amount to about $1 trillion a year.

So the Federal Reserve has already purchased multiples of 1 trillion in treasury bonds. My guess is those bonds will be on the federal reserve's balance sheet in perpetuity.

Does it really matter if we shift those bonds from the Federal Reserve's balance sheet to the Social Security trust Fund balance sheet?

Trump is the worst communicator ever born, and His Own Worst Enemy. But oddly enough, he is right on the big issues.

Benjamin Cole said...

Well, we can use some good news and from Zero Hedge no less.

"With 160 Vaccine Candidates In Development, Goldman Expects An Economic Boom Once At Least One Is Approved By The End Of 2020

by Tyler Durden

Sun, 08/09/2020 - 18:04
As Deutsche Bank Marion Laboure and Jim Reid wrote last week, whereas vaccines normally require years of testing and additional time to produce at scale, amidst the modern era pandemic scientists are hoping to develop a coronavirus vaccine within 12 to 18 months..."

Douglas said...

Scott, under what authority does POTUS effect tax decreases (or increases)? Neither taxation nor appropriation are in the power of the executive, yes? no?

Johnny Bee Dawg said...

Masks are bad for your health and dont stop a virus.
Only herd immunity has EVER stopped a virus spread in all of man's history.
Herd immunity does NOT mean hundreds of thousands of deaths.

Job growth just beat expectations by 20% in July. After setting records in May, and then again in June.
Economists and pundits and news anchors continue to belittle the massive recovery and improvement in economy and markets.

"Cases", COVID hospitalizations, and daily deaths have all peaked in the hot spots.

Record cash on the sidelines.
VALUE and Small Caps are now starting to catch a bid, as the "stay at home" trade has roared, uncontested to date.

Just because DEMOCRAT Mayors are driving the most prosperous, successful, efficient people on the planet out of their cities, does NOT mean that those peoples' GDP contributions will end. They will just move to greener pastures where Mayors are not Marxist idiots, who couldn't run a pay toilet business successfully. In fact, they are turning their cities into actual pay toilets, if you think about it. Normal people will stay away from the stink, and not pay for the privilege.

Communities with strong community support for police, and responsible fiscal policy will attract the producers.
Watch and see.
Meanwhile, DEMs insist that America is clamoring for a nursing home patient for POTUS, and our only concern for VP is skin pigment and female genitalia. I dont believe that America sees it the same way that DEMs say they do.

We will just have to see.

Scott Grannis said...

Douglas re "under what authority does POTUS effect tax decreases (or increases)?"

POTUS does not have the authority to raise or lower tax rates. But he does have the authority to direct Treasury to not collect taxes owed on temporary or emergency basis. This is what Trump did over the weekend.

Scott Grannis said...

It is with heavy heart that I note the passing last night of "cbt696" due to complications from Covid. He had been a prolific contributor to the comments section of this blog in recent months. He was 74 and a good friend and fellow researcher and market watcher.

randy said...

Condolences to his family and friends.

Grechster said...

RIP CBT. I always enjoyed his valuable input.

Benjamin Cole said...

Sorry to hear about cbt696. I enjoy everyone's insights on this blog, and will miss cbt696.

The Cliff Claven of Finance said...

The Great Recession reached 10% unemployment in just one month, October 2009.

If this "recession" is really at 10% unemployment, then why has GDP fallen so much more than in the Great Recession of 2009 ?

I believe the answer is that the unemployment rate is not 10% now, nor has it improved significantly from the peak unemployment rate during this recession.

In fact, there are about 32 million Americans collecting unemployment compensation.

Assuming they are really unemployed, that represents about 20% unemployment, not 10%.

20% unemployment would better explain the actual Real GDP decline in the first half of 2020.

The difference between 10% unemployment and 20% unemployment is huge.

If 20% is the correct number, and I am confident it is, the premise of this article (a significant decline in the unemployment rate) is wrong.

I have written an article on my own finance blog to explain this in more detail.

Keep an open mind about what you hear in an election year.

European nations are also cheating with their reported unemployment rates, which have barely changed in the EU during the COVID-19 partial lockdowns. Don't believe that. I explain that too.

Thank you for listening,

WealthMony said...

Scott, thank you for letting us know about the passing of cbt696 from complications of COVID. His last and final comment was "thank you," directed to Benj who had wished him well in his struggles with the virus. I am so sorry he did not make it, and I can only wish that I could offer more comfort to his family and to you, his friend. I join with others in saying we will miss cbt696, whoever you are.

Scott Grannis said...

Cliff: real GDP fell 11% in the first half of the year. Second quarter GDP was reported as -32.9%, but that is a quarterly annualized figure. The actual decline in Q2 was -9.5%. I have no idea where you're getting 32 million people collecting unemployment insurance, when the latest figure (July) is 16.1 million.

minnesota nice said...

I, too, am sorry to hear about cbt696. My thoughts and prayers are with his family and friends.

The Cliff Claven of Finance said...

32 million
are collecting
unemployment benefits.

I assume they are
all unemployed.

32 million includes
federal benefits
for gig workers
while BLS ignores
them for no logical

The huge decline
of GDP this year
and a weekly
CENSUS survey both
suggest the 32 million
is correct. not 10 million.

I know this blog has been
constantly bullish
sonce 2008 but there
are times to be

This is the worst
recession in our
lifetime and many
politicians want
to continue
until election day.

The fact that your
APPLE stock is booming
should not bias your

There is no way Real
GDP could fall so much
from 1Q to 2Q -- down
about negative 7.5 percent
for real final sales,
with only 10 percent

The Cliff Claven of Finance said...

Add 16.27 million temporarily unemployed
who are collecting the new CARES federal
gig workers / 1099 workers unemployment
checks under PUA and PEUC, both managed
by the state unemployment offices so there
is no double dipping.

EU uses a similar trick to understate
unemployment which they claimed was
only 7.8 percent in June 2020 up only 0.4
points from January 2020. No one
with sense believes that.

I understand GDP data and have since the
1970s when earning my finance MBA.

A 9.5 percentage point
Real GDP decline from
quarter to quarter is huge.

That size decline did not happen
from a roughly nine point rise
of the unemployment rate from
1Q to 2Q of roughly 4 percent to
13 percent unemployment.

Ignoring the temporary unemployed
when temporary is five months so far
is stretching the definition of
temporary way too far.

Mark said...

Hi Scott, to comment your recurring gdp gap chart. This little direct stimulus experiment indicates to close the gap gap all we needed were higher personal incomes.

Johnny Bee Dawg said...


I think the reason the GDP might have fallen so hard is because 41 Governors closed down their economies, shutting businesses in their states for a flu virus that 99.9% of people survive.

The reason there aren't more unemployed is because President Trump's administration created an emergency program, providing billions of loans for businesses. As part of his program, if those businesses use the loan proceeds to keep paying employees and rents and mortgages and utilities, THAT part of the loan will be forgiven. This program allowed millions of businesses to remain on "pause" while retaining employees on the payroll.

Consider it "reparations" from the Federal Government after 41 Governors took away their constituents' ability to earn a living.

Meanwhile those businesses proceeded on a shoestring, sinking GDP. That decline in GDP was widely anticipated.
A very good plan for a temporary "problem".
It explains all your concerns, and shows why the market has roared to new all time highs, and why unemployment is only 10%.

Once the "Most High Governors" and "Lord Mayors" allow their serfs to earn a living again, most of those businesses will be (and are) intact, and ready to start up again...IF they decide to continue operating in big cities decimated by Marxist destroyers. Over a million customers have fled NYC, after all. Maybe the small businesses will move with them. Who needs police, after all?

"New Normal" was an old-time Marxist propaganda term. Notice which Party always dredges up old Marxist terms.

The Cliff Claven of Finance said...

32 million are collecting unemployment
checks so unemployment is about
20 percent, not 10 percent.

Yes the BLS is misleading
the nation.

The BLS and Scott can ignore the
new programs for gig workers
but 16 million are receiving checks
for up to 39 weeks

These people were supposed to be
temporarily unemployed but that
means a month, maybe two.

It's been five months now and
many governors want economic suffering
to continue at least until
election day.

The US economy is in worse shape
than the deceptive 10 percent
unemployment rate suggests.

The EU claims Covid increased
their own unemployment rate
by only 0.4 points since January,
which is even more midleafong.

So I guess there is worldwide
deception about actual unemployment.

Typical of government

The true unemployment rate
is an even greater reason
to end these lockdowns quickly.

SCOTT you are acting as if
no one took advantage of the
new CARES Pandemic Unemployment
Assistance Program and the
new Pandemic Emergency
Unemployment Compensation
Program, which is not true.

The Cliff Claven of Finance said...

New data yesterday reveals
28 million people collecting
state and new federal
unemployment benefits,
down from a peak of about
32 million but still a huge
number. I suspect the end
of the $600 per week
unemployment bonus had
some effect.

Scott your unemployment
data for this post overlooked
the newer federal unemployment
compensation programs.

How would this post change
if you had included them.

Many of the people laid off
temporarily did not look for
new jobs so were deleted from
the labor force and othes were
considered temporary layoffs
and not included in U3 data.

BLS has a long winded explanation
of how they treated Covid related
unemployment that you should read.

Roy said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Roy said...

"But more importantly, he also directed Treasury to suspend payroll taxes for all those (apparently) making less than $4000 every two weeks. This equates to a meaningful stimulus for the economy, " - SG


Demand via household consumption is exactly what the economy is lacking, not growth in supply, right now. Businesses are not going to invest and expand and hire if there is no demand.

To make it worse, external markets also suck away some of our household demand with their supply-side stimulus.

It's great to see, again, that even supply-siders people finally understand that "it depends" should replace "faith-based economics" where one way of thinking applies 100% of the time.

This is a step in the right direction, but of course a very small step considering the challenges ahead. Let's hope that Trump will continue to support households/consumption.

Johnny Bee Dawg said...

That doesn’t even make sense

WealthMony said...

I'm thinking about where was the demand for CDs, 3-D printers, cell phones, personal computers, the internet, etc. before they were invented? Supply comes before demand, but it must fill a need or want, even if unknown.

I think the thing we need to worry about most right now is inflation. It looks like it's coming. What could happen with rising inflation is a robust economy with a hot stock market that ends up crashing when the Fed aggressively turns on the brakes. Watch out 2021 or 2022!

amritsari said...

libertarians - "local governments should have control over how to respond to difficult situations".
local governments - "we are going to shut down in response to a pandemic"
same libertarians - "local governments are stupid and shouldn't be allowed to take major decisions".

Johnny Bee Dawg said...

amritsari: local governments should have to follow the law, and should not be allowed to take away anyone's basic civil rights. Why do you disagree? Nevermind. I know why.

Meanwhile, Donald fast-tracks yet another good treatment regimen for the China Virus, and markets advance even more. The "Right to Try" President!! Old-school American greatness lives!
Andrew Ross Sorkin on CNBC reporting this morning "there is NO evidence that this treatment even works", despite the data shared last nite in the presser. LOL. More and more people are getting tired of the FAKE NEWS lying media. Amazin'

FREASH New all-time highs abound as daily deaths, cases, and hospitalizations plummet all over the USA. The Re-Open trade is starting to catch another bid. What an opportunity if those sectors start to catch up to the rest of the market. Imagine if that starts working.

Meanwhile, oblivious to all data, Senile Joe comes out of the basement to declare he will create for himself new totalitarian powers over the populace. Promises to "shut down the entire country" if "scientists" tell him to. Just like "scientists" told him to subject US citizens to unelected world government because the climate changes.

Meanwhile, the USA just created almost as many new jobs in the last 3 months under Donald as we did in 8 LONG YEARS under Barack & Joe. Let that sink in. Read it again. Donald policies are giving hard working Americans profits and paychecks and record HIGH 401-K balances.

Trump policies have created the most prosperity for the most people in all of US history. That is why markets snapped back from the Governors' shutdowns so quickly, and why they are soaring to new highs, now. Trump policies and virus response are why this was the shortest bear market and "recession" ever in US history.

DEMs told us 2 million Americans would die. Trump kept it to less than 10% of that number, and their heads are exploding with rage as they try to massively rig the election with indiscriminate mass mailings of election ballots.

At this point, one has to be a dishonest person with a warped soul to vote for these DEMs. These are not your Grandpa's DEM policies. Fortunately, most of America is still dominated by honest people. Silent majority.
Trump in a landslide. FORWARD!

Fred said...

Always fun to read JBD. I don't think the Dems will accept Trump's reelection so I expect this will make 2000 look like a love fest of cooperation. We should also expect Antifa and BLM to riot as well. One of my good friends, a Trump supporter, thinks enough people might pull the lever for Biden just to avoid all of this. We shall see.

Adam said...

Dems are using basic instinct rule to cheat black part of America. They explore the fear of exclusion and lack of social lift. The weak part of a Trump proposition for black people is that they often do not have resources to upgrade themselves. They are cought in a viscious circle of powerty. Trump should offer them some "scholar grants" or so.

Johnny Bee Dawg said...

This is the best political convention of my lifetime.
Amazing stories of regular Americans who have benefitted from Trump policies of less government, less taxes, more jobs and booming economy and markets.
Makes you feel that there really ARE decent Patriotic Americans out there, and Washington DC is the pit of hell.
Trump is making things better for ALL Americans...not the elites and the Swamp.
Every American should tune in. High production values, and beautiful, positive hopeful outlook.
its like heaven. Very exciting to experience.

The Cliff Claven of Finance said...

Deputy Dawg, the Trump cheerleader, is the antidote to the mant Trump haters.

I want to bring back some reality, however.

As of last Thursday 28 million Americans were collecting state or federal unemployment benefits. That's down from a peak of about 32 million. This blog refuses to acknowledge the new federal unemployment benefits but that error is not my fault. The worst part of this depression level unemployment (assuming benefits roughly equals unemployment) is that Dems and some Republicans want it to continue through Election day.

The Trump record is slightly faster Real GDP growth than under Obama, starting Obama's count after the December 2007 Recession ended. He did not cause that recession. Thats not the best economy ever. Not even close. The unemployment rate is not the only indicator of economic health.

I dont watch conventions or political speeches because talk is cheap. Actions and results are far more important. We know what Trump accomplished in his first term with huge opposition since January 2019. I can't think of anything Joe Biden accomplished in 50 years. But despite Bernie Sanders style policies, hiding in his basement and having an unlikable VP choice who flopped in the primaries, he is still running ahead of Trump in polls. Thats scary. Even if you give Trump an extra five points assuming many people won't admit they plan to vote for him, he still loses. Biden is hide'n and his mind is slidin' but he is still ahead in polls What's wrong with this nation?

We have the lowest rate of new Covid infections in two month and the mass media fails to report that fact.

Adam said...

Scott, there is a lot of talks of a potential shift in FED inflation targeting approach. Especially temporary target overshooting could be important. What is your perespective plse.

vito said...

Calafia Beach Pundit
Hope no news is good news only one post this month?

Johnny Bee Dawg said...

I guess by now everybody has seen the big announcement by the CDC this weekend.
After further examination, they determined that there have been only 9210 deaths in the entire USA from COVID alone.
And 90% of those were in nursing homes.

All the other deaths had an average of 2.6 co-morbidities. Flu will also kill you with co-morbidities exactly like that, but rarely reported as such.
Stage 4 cancer, and you die with flu? The death is reported as Stage 4 cancer.
Stage 4 cancer, and you die with COVID? The death is reported as COVID. $76000 per COVID patient will do that for you.

And seasonal flu kills FAR more people on its own each year than 9210.
EVERYTHING Dr. Knut Wittowski said was true, and has come to pass. Even less deaths than he predicted.

The whole panic was a FRAUD, and the shut-down was just a back-up plan to the failed coup attempt in JAN.
EU pushing the ESG and Green New Deal...COVID panic conveniently resets all the tech usage worldwide for stay at home.
Cars off the road. Herd the populace. OBEY!! MASKS ON!!! Fundamental Transformation ready for adoption.

Meanwhile the New York Times makes a shocking revelation that most of the positive test results are bunk.
An amazing weekend for earth shattering announcements.

Welschman said...

Links to CDC announcement?

Johnny Bee Dawg said...


Sorry, I was being sarcastic. The CDC made no fanfare with their bombshell new data. Isn't that odd?
They quietly updated their website, and no major news source is covering it.
Its not on the front page of CNBC.
Of course, its gone viral all over the internet. The President talked about it.

CDC quietly updates data showing only 6% of Americans died of COVID alone

Its in the "Comorbidities" paragraph.

The Cliff Claven of Finance said...

Influenza deaths are greatly overstated by using models rather than a list of actual patients who died. Almost all doctors will say they have had no patients or few who died from influenza. It would be surprising if COVID counts wrre any more accurate. It was known in April that the disease was mainly killing old people with other medical problems -- most older people have other medical problems. So this is not news. AND you Deputy Dawg, continue to ignore the suffering of older people, in general, who survived the virus. One friend in her 60s was so sick for three weeks that she considered suicide at one point. Her son, a doctor, kept her at home and cared for het, fearing his hospital would be more dangetous. She was a recently retired emergency room dictor. He then got COVI but with much milder symptoms.

If overweight people with diabetes and high blood pressure die after getting COVID, they died from COVId, not from diabetes and high blood pressure.

The claim that only 9000 Americans died from Covid is mislwading nonsense just as your anti-science claim that masks CAUSE disease. Stick to subjects you know like Trump cheerleading. COVID death analyses is not one of them

Johnny Bee Dawg said...

9210 died of COVID, alone, as of 8/22/2020.
That is directly from the CDC.
Every other reported death had average of 2.6, in fact.
All according to CDC.

Seasonal flu, alone, causes many more deaths than that each year
Markets saw right thru the panic hoax, and blasted to all time highs.

London residents have seen thru it, too. Any idea why the BBC won't show this?

The Cliff Claven of Finance said...

Deputy Dawg
You have no idea how deaths are recorded. CDC used computer models for estimating influenza deaths in the past, not a list of the names of victims. Doctors think their estimates are too high. I imagine the CDC estimates for COVID will also be too high but consistent with how CDC operated in the past.

The cause of death will not be the flu, it will be a major organ failure.
Usually the lungs, and the cause of death will usually be listed as pneumonia. The death certificate may note that a flu infection was present, or maybe not.

The 9000 people listed as COVID deaths had no KNOWN other medical problems, but probably had unknown medical problems. Diabetes, for example, can be present for years before being discovered.

The belief that only 9000 people really died from SARS2 is idiotic and fails to recognize how flu deaths are traditionally estimated by CDC.

Very important but you and others here ignore this. Perhaps 99.9 percent of infected people survive. Maybe 40 percent have mild symptoms or don't know they are affected. That leaves almost 60 percent who suffer ... and the suffering with COVID is worse than an ordinary seasonal flu. Especially through April when doctors didn't really know what to do. I believe patients not counted as COVID actuslly had COVID before March and just thought they haf an unusually bad influenza infection. I know two early victims who found out they had COVID well after they were cured. One was so sick for three weeks she considered suicide at one point. She was a very healthy 60something with no known medical problems. A retired doctor, in fact.

For every 1000 people who get SARS2 infections perhaps 999 will survive. Why does everyone here focus on the 1 of 1000 who die and ignore perhaps 600 of 1000 who suffer and survive? Some with permanent lung damage?