Tuesday, July 7, 2020

Lots more green shoots

It's been several weeks since my last post, but no, I haven't been sick with Covid nor has anyone in my extended family. I've just been enjoying the market's buoyancy while also tracking the economy's recovery. The economy seems to be doing pretty well, but it's still got to climb out of a very deep hole before we'll all breathe easy. Meanwhile, the market is doing a decent job of looking across the valley of despair, as it often does, and ignoring all the hype surrounding a supposed second Covid wave. BLM protests looked quite threatening for awhile, but are now fizzling out—and leaving a legacy of lawlessness and chaos which I hope will sharpen minds come election time.

New Covid cases are surging in some areas, but to date there is almost no evidence of an increase in new deaths. In fact, the Covid outlook continues to improve. Dr. John Ioannidis (an early sage who correctly cautioned against Covid shutdown) has reviewed some 50 international studies and argues that some 150 million to 300 million people around the world have already had the virus, far more than the 10 million recorded cases. “For people younger than 45, the infection fatality rate is almost 0%. For 45 to 70, it is probably about 0.05%-0.3%. For those above 70, it escalates substantially.”

Believe it or not, "Despite the recent spike in COVID-19 cases, deaths have continued to decline and may soon reach a level where the coronavirus will no longer qualify as an epidemic under CDC guidelines." (source)

Meanwhile, vaccine solutions are on the horizon, and a recent hydroxychloroquine study showed a 50% reduction in hospital mortality rates. Remember, you first heard about HCQ here in late March.
Chart #1

As Chart #1 shows, there has been a definite increase in the number of new cases in the U.S. This has prompted the MSM to warn of a deadly second wave. But this is no reason to panic, and no reason to worry about another shutdown. It's very important to remember that this virus is not going to disappear anytime soon. So far, recorded cases total less than 1% of the population (though according to Ioannidis it could be much more—but still a relatively small number). Before this is all over, at least half the population could end up infected, but the good news is that at least 99% or more will survive. Much of the recent increase in cases comes from younger people, many of whom were asymptomatic but were required, for various reasons, to be tested. And of course there has been a tremendous increase in the number of tests administered, so that alone could account for much of the rise. The nationwide wave of BLM protests and riots, most of which occurred between May 26th and June 6th, surely contributed as well to the increased number of cases.

Chart #2

As Chart #2 shows, the number of new daily deaths in the U.S. has been declining for more than two months, and there is as yet no evidence that the recent increase in cases has led to an increase in deaths. Deaths were expected to decline simply due to the warmer and sunnier weather, which typically results in fewer deaths from flu. It may also be possible that the virus has evolved into a less lethal version (which in turn enables it to more widely propagate, since its hosts live longer). Moreover, people have changed their habits—being more cautious now. HCQ may also be a factor in reducing deaths. Whatever the case, fewer deaths alongside rising cases cannot be a bad thing at all.

Chart #3

Chart #3 shows a huge increase in the ISM Service Sector Business Activity Index for the month of June. This signifies a significant improvement in what is the lion's share of our economy. It doesn't get more V-shaped than this!

Chart #4

The overall ISM service sector index, shown in Chart #4, increased by almost as much as the business activity index. And it's encouraging that conditions in the Eurozone service sector have also improved dramatically.

Chart #5

As Chart #5 shows, airline passenger traffic at US airports has risen almost seven-fold since the April low. Although the rate of growth has slowed of late, passenger traffic nevertheless increased over 20% in the past two weeks.

Chart #6

Global equity markets are recovering nicely. As Chart #6 shows, Chinese equities have surged of late, and the yuan has strengthened. Remember: what's good for China is good for the world.

Chart #7

As Chart #7 shows, Eurozone equities are still struggling, having severely underperformed US equities in recent years. Europe is still suffering from "Eurosclerosis."

Chart #8

Chart #8 continues to be most intriguing. That the prices of gold and 5-yr TIPS—two utterly distinct assets—should track each other so well and for so long is amazing. The only way to understand this is to think of each asset as a "safe haven" asset. Investors these days are willing to pay a steep price for the perceived safety of both gold and inflation-protected bonds. That must mean that the world is still in the grips of fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD). 

Chart #9

Chart #9 updates my long-time favorite chart. Here we see that with fear declining, equity prices are slowly returning to where they were before the virus hit. The recent spike in the Vix index coincided with a brief "second-wave" scare that is now being digested.

Recommended reading: Arnold Kling, Economics After the Virus

Kling presents a model—a way of thinking—to better understand what is unique about the recent plunge in economic activity. In his model "sustainable patterns of specialization and trade" were disrupted by the Covid virus and the subsequent shutdown of the economy. New patterns now need to be found. This will take time, and the traditional policy tools of monetary and fiscal stimulus are of little help. The government should thus focus its efforts on increasing the incentives to work (e.g., a payroll tax holiday), rather than handing out subsidies in an attempt to stimulate demand. Trying to stimulate demand only increases the risk of inflation, by creating shortages of essential and new products and services.

I would argue that one thing he misses is the demand for money and money equivalents, which in normal times is quite low. In a crisis, demand for money goes way up and the Fed has to accommodate this, as I have argued here for many years. But at some point the Fed has to reverse, and that is difficult (the Fed needs to get the timing, quantity, and level of rates just right to avoid problems). Other than that minor quibble, I think he gives us some valuable insights into the problems the economy and policymakers face today.

UPDATE (7/8/20): Check out this chart of Sweden's daily new deaths. Despite eschewing egregious restrictions, the country seems to be acquiring enough herd immunity to virtually stop the virus in its tracks. This is the Holy Grail of the fight against Covid:

Here's the chart of daily new deaths:


101 comments:

AL said...

Good evening Scott, don't COVID deaths take a few/several weeks to show up in the stats? Also, what are your thoughts on the other countries (i.e. New Zealand, Spain, Canada) who took the mask wearing and the shutdown seriously for a concentrated period of time, and now folks are are out and about like nothing happened? Thank you, as always, for all that you do sir.

Unknown said...

The virus really isn't as bad as they thought it would be. Those model projections are a terrible way to go about things because they're hypothetical situations. Nothing we are doing is based on actual data in the states but based on fear-mongering.

Scott Grannis said...

AL, re the differences between countries. Canada (231), New Zealand (4) and Spain (607) have had widely varying results (numbers in parenthesis are deaths per 1 million population). But that is not necessarily the best or the only metric that should be the goal of policy. To minimize cases and deaths now (by locking everyone up in their house) implies a tremendous economic and social cost, plus countless deaths from starvation, loneliness, etc). It also means that eventually the lockdown must end and that in turn means that the virus will once again be free to roam and infect. Flattening the curve now means extending the curve over time at an elevated rate. There are all sorts of trade offs that must be made. Deciding which is most important is a subjective decision; no one has the only right answer. Sweden (539), which imposed only minimal restrictions, has not fared much worse than the US (405), or France 459).

The one region of the world that has suffered far worse results than any other is New York State (1660). It’s not hard to believe that Gov Cuomo’s decision to force long-term care facilities to accept Covid patients was responsible. He did the exact opposite of what anyone would recommend today (i.e., he forced the elderly and sick to be exposed to Covid-positive patients). And indeed, in the US it turns out that approximately half of all Covid deaths have occurred in long-term care facilities.

If an effective vaccine becomes available soon, then those countries that paid a high price via shutdowns will perhaps be better off in the end. But if an effective vaccine doesn’t come for the next six months, then countries that have shut down tightly will be forced to relax their shutdowns (due to the intolerable cost) and they will then feel the unchecked effects of the virus.

To me, the only sensible course of action, now that we know how the virus acts on different age and health groups, is to 1) realize that the virus is not materially worse than the common flu, and 2) adopt strong measures to protect the aged and the infirm. Everyone else should be free, as you say, to be out and about like nothing happened. For generations we have all lived with the risk of death via flu, and no one thought it was necessary to quarantine the entire population. That we did so with Covid translates into a catastrophic mistake.

As I have been saying for months now: “The decision to shut down the US economy will prove to be the most expensive self-inflicted injury in the history of mankind.™”

Roy said...

Thanks for the data.

"I would argue that one thing he misses is the demand for money and money equivalents, which in normal times is quite low. In a crisis, demand for money goes way up and the Fed has to accommodate this, as I have argued here for many years"

I erroneously thought you believe and follow the "supply-side economic theory", looking at everything through the supply side. And yet, here you look at the demand side of things as having an impact on the supply side... there's hope for you yet ;)

Happy belated 4th!

AL said...

Scott, thank you for both the prompt reply and all your feedback. Why do you think that when a lockdown ends, the virus is free to roam and infect? Why hasn’t a country like South Korea had a 2nd wave? If in America, we had taken an action like mask wearing and quarantining seriously – and in a collective manner – then couldn’t we have reached a state where the virus was virtually dead in it’s tracks, and we were out and about, like the citizens of the countries I mentioned before? Also, what are your thoughts on action needing to have been taken earlier in the US? Lastly, the goal of any/all policies should’ve been to go beyond flattening the curve, right? Thanks again Scott for your time and replies.

cbt696 said...

“Dr. Michael Levitt and Sweden have been right all along. The only way through COVID-19 is by achieving the modest (10-20%) Herd Immunity Threshold required to have the virus snuff itself out. The sooner politicians—and the press—start talking about HIT and stop talking about new confirmed cases, the better off we will all be. Either way, it’s likely weeks, not months, before the data of new daily deaths will be so low that the press will have to find something new to scare everyone. It’s over.

A quick note:

Haters of this article will post articles about Sweden saying their approach has been a failure. They will point to recent press about Sweden having higher rates of COVID-19 positive tests lately — Sweden has pushed back strongly — so here’a chart for the haters, it shows positive cases in Sweden, tracked against deaths. There’s no correlation.“

Article in full:
https://off-guardian.org/2020/07/07/second-wave-not-even-close/

“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.“ H. L. Mencken

Fred said...

I'm not so sure about Dr. Levitt's models. He predicted Covid would be over in the US in April and if you look at his Stanford lab models they are constantly changing based on actual numbers. He's obviously brillant in his field where he won the Nobel but does anybody believe China's numbers on cases and deaths, which Dr. Levitt "acurately predicted?" Seems like China looked at his model and then provided the numbers to make it work. How could they possibly have had so few deaths in a population so large? I also wonder if this thing wasn't created in their lab (I know- it sounds like crazy conspiracy theories-but it seems as though Covid is doing things that no virus has done before).

Midwest Guy said...

Chart 3 is a diffusion index so of course it looks better coming off April and May. This won't tell us anything for another month or so.

SPG said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
SPG said...

Scott,

Your research is, in many regards, unparalleled. I would like to share this post with my clients: Do you permit your posts, in their entirety, to be shared with proper attribution?

Thank you!

SPG

The Cliff Claven of Finance said...

Protests + riots = covid cases spikes

Hot weather in southern states + air conditioned bars open = covid cases spike.

The notion that Trump will win is wishful thinking.

The year does not favor reelection.

Only 10 percent own enough stocks to care about stock averages.

Trunp has made one wron statement after another about covid, helped by Dr. Always Wrong Fauci

The pandemic is still in progress so there are no experts yet.

There are over 30 million people collecting unemployment yet the BLS claims fewer than 18 million were unemployed in June -- the biggest discrepancy I've seen in over 40 years of studying employment data !

Regina said...

While the corona death rate fades, why the increased draconian measures?
We are in a mountain town in TN and people in the most rural settings are walking around in masks. We stopped into a taco place and had to have our temp taken, hands sanitized and they wanted masks on while we were not seated at our table. Unless "corona" is dropping from the skies, it does not seem plausible that a virus could survive in this vast rural mountainous areas.
Going forward with tight controls on humanity:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_mGUQiO6m0&feature=youtu.be

Regina

Scott Grannis said...

SPG: you are welcome to share my posts with attribution.

Urban Carmel said...

Scott - The fewer deaths are in NY and NE. The rise in new cases are in the South and West and have unfortunately been followed by a shape rise in deaths. Charts here: https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1273783198082711552/photo/1

Benjamin Cole said...

Another excellent post by Scott Grannis.

And boy, chart #6 is a big surprise. If you had asked me which stock market has performed better since 1995, that of the US or that of China, I would have guessed China.

America, at the local, state and federal levels, recently has been through some of the worst governance we have ever seen. Looting is called "protesting," and honest business owners and their employees are shut down to prevent the spread of a virus which is going to spread anyway.

A US president says he wants to get out of Afghanistan, and the establishments of both parties work to booby-trap him back into that endless quagmire.

I love the idea of a payroll-tax holiday. Why ever tax people who act productively?

Regina said...

"A US president says he wants to get out of Afghanistan, and the establishments of both parties work to booby-trap him back into that endless quagmire."


I think Sibel Edmonds explains it well here:
https://www.newsbud.com/2020/06/10/the-coup-makers-psyop-exposed-meet-their-generals/

Regina said...

Woot!


Transition to Greatness "America Need God" Holy Spirit // President Trump

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5hZoEPdJzc

and no masks. Normal social gestures.
I think this is exactly what America needs to recover from the trauma of lockdowns, etc...

Scott Grannis said...

There's nothing wrong with a huge surge in new cases that is followed by only a moderate rise in new deaths. This is the strategy Sweden employed: let the virus infect a lot of people while minimizing its ability to infect the most vulernable. That is the way to herd immunity, and that is ultimately the only way to "beat" the virus in the absence of vaccines and/or miracle drug therapeutics.

Fred said...

The problem is that the media is relentless in its negative narrative of the new cases. They report a spike in deaths in AZ, TX and FL even if the deaths are part of a data dump of old cases. They then report cases where young people still are suffering lingering effects of the virus weeks after they were supposed to be recovered. I am seeing more businesses close up in midtown Atlanta because of a "surge in cases" which will not help the recovery. The bad reports will keep coming until Biden wins, and if he doesn't, expect them to continue for as long as possible until there isn't a single new case to report anywhere in the US or we have an effective antibody drug that both prevents and cures Covid.

Scott Grannis said...

Babylon Bee sums it up nicely: "Governors Reinstate Lockdowns to Combat Recovering Economy”

The Cliff Claven of Finance said...

There is A LOT wrong with a huge surge in new COVID cases because us old timers are still vulnerable to catch the disease from a young person who is infected but doesn't even know.

Also, people with this disease
can SUFFER and survive -- at this blog it seems suffering does not matter if you don't die.

One 60-something friend suffered for "the worst three weeks of my life" and then recovered. She is a retired emergency room physician in good shape before Covid19 and got the best possible care.

Governors took charge of their economies and are not giving up that unjustified power.

The media deliberately scares people.

Trump makes repeated wrong statements about the disease, along with his advisors.

Attacks on Trump will get worse as the election approaches -- truth does not matter to leftists.

That Trump is behind Joe "Chauncy Gardener" Biden is very disturbing.

If Biden can do something to avoid debating he will win.

He reads a teleprompter better than Trump and will run on empty socialist promises rather than any record as Obama did.

The latest Trump Mount Rushmore apeech was an exception to his usual boring telepromter reading.

Trump can't win on promises as he did in 2016 -- now he has a record and it has been mediocre since Democrats took over the House in Hanuary 2019.

That Biden can tell black people who don't vote for him that they are not really black is insulting and racist, yet the meddia lets that slide.

Trump has the media and lots of people against him.

Including too many Republicans.

My state of Michigan helped make Trump president in 2016 but probably not in 2020.

The economy is still far from normal and the stock market is more overvalued than at any time in history.

Investors must assume Trump will win but that is wishful thinking.









Frozen in the North said...

What STudies?

Quote:Meanwhile, vaccine solutions are on the horizon, and a recent hydroxychloroquine study showed a 50% reduction in-hospital mortality rates. Remember, you first heard about HCQ here in late March"

Virtually everyone in the world has withdrawn hydroxychloroquine from any use in hospitals setting. Maybe some FOX News know hospital...maybe its an American thing?

On the other hand, new hospitalizations are 50% below the age of 40, and maybe they don't die, but there are substantial sequels to Covid19. Also, anyone who's got Covid19 will be unable to insure themselves going forward -- pre-existing conditions are back baby!

amritsari said...

Scott at 1300 deaths - "only 1300, whats the big deal ?", Scott at 130000 deaths "don't worry, deaths haven't spiked and just take HCQ". What will Scott say at 300000 deaths? (because that's where we are headed). A good example that money and education can't buy you common sense and empathy.
The moronic intransigence of the right wing in america to masks/social distancing is going against there own stated desire to reopen - how do you expect people to feel safe going back to work/shop if there aren't sufficient safety measures being employed?
The utter failure of US to this pandemic must make US adversaries think seriously about bioweapons. It would work great. Too many americans think their selfish, unscientific beliefs trump facts and the way virus spreads. Or maybe people will take it seriously if it is blamed on Al Qaida/ISIS?
The misery will continue until the last doubter is dragged into the ICU.

The Cliff Claven of Finance said...

Amritsari
Your diatribe is ridiculous.

The pandemic is not over so conclusions are not yet possible -- that might take
another year.

The economic shutdown has health effects too --rising suicides, more spouse abuse, more child abuse and people avoiding hospitals and doctors for non-Covid problems.

The morons of the left wing went out to shout protests and one and two weeks later new,infections spiked amoung younger people.

Not one country that attracted incoming flights from China in early 2020 avoided the virus.

Stupid young liberals crowding into bars eith no masks
Just like stupid young conservatives doing the same thing.


If kept in place to long the economic lockdowns will cause more harm than the disease even though that can't be calculated now.

We all know social distancing and masks help but some people can't stand it anymore

Trump has communicated almost nothing of value except for mentioning HCQ. -- which anti-science liberals attacked simply because Trump mentioned the cheap, rarely harmful generic drug used by doctors all over the world with xonc supplements.


The Us daily death rate was down 75 to 80 percent the last time I looked which we should celebrate and hope the trend continues

Aaron J. Courtney said...

This is why most economists should leave molecular biology alone unless they truly understand the biochemistry behind the pathogenesis and subsequent pathophysiology of the hyperinflammatory disease that actually kills you. If you don't understand the meaning of endotheliopathy as it relates to elevated D-dimer and von Willebrand Factor, then you really shouldn't hold yourself as an authority on the topic of SARS-CoV-2.

And for everyone talking about herd immunity without a truly effective inoculation (not some useless "40% effective vaccine") let's revisit the topic after every asymptomatic pt has ZERO IgG present after only a few months. And then let's watch the symptomatics' IgG antibodies disappear after 6-12 months. These dire predictions will then most certainly pull out the "memory T cell" advocates. Sure some validity there. But in order for that pathway to be utilized by the adaptive immune system, CD4/CD8 memory T cells, depending on which particular interleukin is present, either go the TH1 or TH2 route. And that's one more opportunity for a dysregulated immune system to go haywire with an overproduction of cytotoxic T cells that will once again annihilate everything cellular in sight, likely promoting more thrombotic microangiopathy and even macro-circulatory thromboembolic complications leading to even greater sequelae if not outright death depending, once again, on the state of the healthcare system. Nevermind that little fact that studies show a statistically significant reduction in CD4 in severe cases of Covid-19. And those that do remain appear "exhausted". Why? Probably because the virus targets CD4/CD8, not via ACE-2, but via CD147. Check with Nobel Laureate virologist Luc Montagnier about why this happens.

What does all of the above ultimately mean? It means America is nowhere close to getting this disaster under control. There will be enormous pain and suffering until we unite as a country and take the necessary precautions to starve this man-made virus (Wuhan Institute of Virology thanks to NIH-sponsored gain of function research to the tune of $7.4M) of fresh bodies.

steve said...

The basis premise of this post has already been invalidated. Deaths are rising again-absolutely unsurprisingly, and will continue to do so especially given that cases per day have spiked. All because people can't wear a damn mask and stay 6 feet away from others. Brilliant. Trump has blood on his hands by somehow politicizing the wearing of a mask. Narcissist does not even come close to defining this mans warped ego.

Johnny Bee Dawg said...

Comments section is amazing.

The Cliff Claven of Finance said...

Mr. DAWG
That was your shortest comment ever.
And no pro-Trump cheerleading?
Are you okay?
Give us more.

Do you think Biden will be able to avoid a debate?
Maybe they'll suddenly claim he has the virus and cancel just before the first debate?

Biden was always a bottom of the class sort of politician when he was young prior early dementia. A politician surrounded by a family of now wealthy grifters.

Johnny Bee Dawg said...

I think the market continues to see through all the fake panic about the virus, and fake polls and propaganda about a Joe Biden Presidency.

Markets love Donald, and they always have. They aren't worried about Biden getting in.

Biden is a nursing home patient, and a liar, and a life-long plagiarist, and a corrupt politician who's used his office to steal, skim and extort millions or decades. He's the epitome of the Swamp. He even bragged ON CAMERA about withholding US aid unless the prosecutor investigating his drug addled son's company was fired. Biden is a bad person because of his behavior in office. And he is an ACTUAL racist, based on decades of statements. LINK: And he gropes little girls. And he personally helped launch the illegal witch-hunt against the President.

If Biden were worth a crap, DEMs would have run him last time. Now, he's senile.
Who votes for that instead of the record prosperity of Trump's policies???

DEMs are complete disasters in governing. Look at every major city run by DEMs for decades. Third world S-holes. They pumped nursing homes full of infected COVID patients, on purpose. Amazing. Name one good thing DEMs have done for the country since Trump has been in office, that HE hasn't shoved down their throat.

Aint no way America is going to vote for the Party of Riots, Racism and Karl Marx right now....and Markets know that.
Trump policies will bring us 4 more years of record prosperity, record job creation, record high tax revenues, record low regulations, and record high 401-Ks. 401-K account balances are at fresh new all-time highs right this minute. People notice that.
There is record cash on the sidelines that is going to be invested.

Markets just had their best quarter in decades, and July is screaming higher.
GOD BLESS DONALD!
All Lives Matter.

Regina said...

Woot JBD!!!

HAH! "the Party of Riots, Racism and Karl Marx.."

And for more fodder, read Awan Minutes To Midnight by George Webb.

The Cliff Claven of Finance said...

Thank you Dawg and Scott for optimism that offsets the constant pessimism in the mainstream media.

I have moved 100 percent into cash but my only short term indicator which is AAII Sentiment, turned bullish March 18 and remains bullish.

I hope I am wrong and will miss some profits ... But am too old for losses now -- I retired at age 51 and live on my savings.

I am surrounded by people who hate Trump and want Dumbocrat governors to TRY to ruin the US economy with high Covid unemployment.

I swear that a few very wealthy peple I know have openly discussed not buying stocks in the month before the election to hurt the stock market.

I have never heard so many Americans dislike their own country.

Obama gave us eight years averaging only 1.5 percent real GDP growth -- a
a corrupt FBI and CIA ... and he gave $150 billion to &@$& Iran ... I still loved my country in spite of him !

fixer said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Fred said...

Looks like the markets haven't quite decided the virus is fake, or at least that Governors can do harm to the economy by imposing partial or complete lockdowns again due to rising cases. Here in Atlanta the mayor has issued an executive order shutting down businesses again even though our Governor says they are unenforceable. The problem is several businesses have decided to follow the mayor's order.

Oeconomicus said...

California shutting down again. Small businesses must be in big trouble.

Johnny Bee Dawg said...

The virus is real. The panic is fake.
DEM Governors are rightly terrified of soaring stock markets, record high 401-Ks, and back-to-back record high job creation months.
They have to act quickly to destroy the recovery by any means necessary.

Must...close...down....outdoor...bars...to save the children.

randy said...

Generally, it's clear that statistically the young and healthy have progressively smaller risk of fatalities. Still, as a pretty health 55+, I can see good reason to worry Covid is much riskier than regular flu. The reason is the still developing unknowns and variability. For those (cbt696, JBD) more inclined to think the risk is way over-hyped, how do you see these kinds of reports from medical providers:

"Humans have been living with influenza for over a century, successfully treating and creating vaccines that reduce the effects of the disease. On the other hand, the long-term consequences of COVID-19 are still unclear (e.g., Pediatric Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome). Unlike the flu, there is a wider concern of growing reports of symptoms lingering for weeks and months after recovering from the cough and fever. These symptoms include chronic lung damage, crippling fatigue, joint pain and deep bone aches, chest pain, heart palpitations, headaches and dizziness."

The problem of course is no reliable statistics and a world full of hypochondriacs. Even with that, I'm a long way from being ready to go to bars.

Johnny Bee Dawg said...

We have never "beaten" the flu with a vaccine. We never had a vaccine for SARS or MERS.
I am highly skeptical of predictions of "chronic lung damage" for people who have had the disease for less than 3 months.
Takes me 3 months at least to get over every bout of flu I've ever had.

"Cases" vs Deaths is proving the more data we get, the lower the death rates become.
Anecdotal stories of maxed out hospitals & equipment have all proved to be false....everywhere.

Stanford's John Ioannidis (an actual infectious disease expert, rather than a govt bureaucrat) continues to report on data.
He concludes: "“For people younger than 45, the infection fatality rate is almost 0%. For 45 to 70, it is probably about 0.05%-0.3%. For those above 70, it escalates substantially.”
This is seasonal flu-type numbers WITHOUT any vaccine.

99% of people who get the virus have ZERO to mild symptoms.
Protect the elderly & infirm, and let the rest of us get on with it.
Open the schools.


People should stay home if they are fearful and allow businesses to open as they see fit.
Masks are bad for your health, and they help spread the virus.
Have you watched the Diminutive Doctor handle his mask on TV? Unreal. His behavior PROVES he knows its BS.

Fred said...

I never thought I would say this, but with California closing down again and school districts refusing to open for in-person instruction, it's more obvious than ever that the goal is to destroy the economy so Trump loses in November. We may be at the point where we just can't keep this country together any longer and it's now time to agree to split.

fixer said...

What is the evidence for "deaths are rising" in the US?

The Cliff Claven of Finance said...

Okay Dawg now you did it.

Masks are great for your health if everyone else wears them.

If they cough or sneeze the "water vapor" doesn't spray as far.

That's especially important if you get too close to lots of people.

Coughing outdoors where there is high humidity cuts the spray distance too -- even better if the wind is blowing toward the cougher.

It's now clear governors have seized too much powerto throttle the economy to screw Trump.

One potential problem for Trump is that PPP money went to far too many people who are rich and not enough went to small businesses who may not survive -- the details and lack of oversight would shock the American people.

The thought that Joe "Chauncy Gardener" Biden is the choice, with AOC as a climate change advisor, makes me wonder if half the country has gone insane.

DEMOCRATS will say nothing bad about Biden but are not enthusiastic about him.

I made a bet on Trump in 2016 simply because his supporters were so enthusiastic about him in 2016.

I think enthusiasm for a candidate is more important than polls

Johnny Bee Dawg said...

Every box of masks now carries the warning: "This mask provides no protection against COVID-19"
That's because they dont.
Masks are bad for your health, and they help spread the virus.

Multiple research studies have made this conclusion:
LINK: Masks Don't Work: A review of science relevant to COVID-19 social policy

Virus particles are too small to be contained by a mask.
Watch somebody blow cigarette smoke thru a mask. It comes right thru.
Stand next to somebody who farts while wearing underwear and thick denim jeans. (That is like wearing multiple masks.)
Tell me if you can smell those particles, or were they contained?

Even if you wanted to believe a mask would stop virus particles, health pros say you would need to change the mask every few minutes, and NEVER touch a mask, because that puts virus on your hands and spreads it to others.
Look at Dr. Fauci constantly fiddling with his mask, and touching it, and setting on surfaces and putting it back on, and dangling it from an ear, and stuffing it in his pocket. All without hand sanitizer, etc. HE KNOWS its all bunk, or he would demonstrate proper protocol in his own actions.

The CO2 trapped by a mask is bad for your health....not to mention the virus accumulating at your air holes.
Watch people walking around with masks in stores. Constantly fiddling with them. Touching them. Moving them aside to drink. Putting them in the car, contaminating every surface, and driving around, and putting them on again.

If you can believe this...some people actually carry the same mask around for days or weeks, wearing it repeatedly, stuffing it in pockets, touching it, laying it down, putting it on repeatedly. Madness.
This defeats the purported reason for a the mask, and actually makes matters worse...spreading the virus.

The REAL reason the NeverTrump politicians demand that you wear a mask is to spread more virus, and to force compliance with their edicts.
Play along with them, and spread the virus if you like, but realize that ALL THE SCIENCE says masks are counterproductive for this virus. They have 4 months to get deaths up, or else they lose this election. Cuomo may have to stuff some more infected COVID patients into nursing homes again if this ploy doesn't work.

Meanwhile news of a new vaccine is going to drive markets to all-time highs, soon, and citizens are going to rebel against their overlords, and open up their businesses. Watch and see.

And virus, or no virus, I am going to get to DC again to watch Trump's second inauguration.

Regina said...

Great comments again Dawg -

you mean the "vaccines" which will line the fatso pockets of Fauci, Gates, Slaoui and um Wellcome.
What "science" anyway. The most hijacked word in recent times.
Replace it with egregore. Pathologize anyone that dares question the egregore.

Martha Stewart must be gobsmacked at the brazen insider trading and the snake oil gang at it again.

My only caution is the way the gang don't feel they have to hide it anymore.

We have to watch the defund the police plan. Ushering in Nato, dyncorp jackboots to make certain we behave as global citzens.

cbt696 said...

https://issuesinsights.com/2020/07/15/covid-19-shows-how-to-create-a-pandemic-panicand-keep-it-going/

Oeconomicus said...

Completely agree JBD. But I'm finding the media and politicians have succeeded in scaring or terrifying the majority of the general public into believing masks are absolutely necessary! The social fabric of society has been scarred possibly for the long term. ):

Fred said...

There are several reports now of people leaving long lines for testing only to find out later that they tested positive for Covid even though they were never tested! Hospital gets a federal payment for every positive test. Also some labs reporting 100% positive tests. JBD: try charcoal filter underwear. It might help with your farts.

Johnny Bee Dawg said...

Mine dont stink. Im special.

Grechster said...

Fred: I'm with you. The Dems/media have thrown everything at Trump and now they're torturing the interpretation of all the Covid data to try to take down Trump, via a weakened economy. I'm not sure why this is even considered a goofy position. They tried everything else! FBI, Mueller, lies about Russia, ... Now they've seized upon this Covid stuff to take away the one issue that Trump was clearly better about: the economy. I say all this as a guy who doesn't care for Trump, but I prefer him to the awful Biden/Dems. I won't vote for either of these jerks but I live in MA so it doesn't matter anyway. I'm with JBD: I think Trump will win. I'm going to bet a decent amount on it although my conviction level is probably lower than that of JBD. As to your other point, you're on to something. The fissure in this country probably can't be healed. Let's get to splitting up into several countries and give the peeps some real choices. Heck, we might even do humanity a favor by bringing about the end of our aggressive and costly (and illegal) wars.

Regina said...

Yep.
Even dem Cynthia McKinny is pro-Trump for all the right reasons.

George Webb correctly sees her as someone who can help heal the fissure.

Great interview.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CT0VAdAW03A

It's we the people. Whatever the misLeaders can do to keep us divided and fighting and distracted allows them to keep doing their evil deeds to peonize us.

Regina said...

Here's Dr. Paul on it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFIo55kT1RI

Johnny Bee Dawg said...

I know this is a kinda long video, but it is absolutely chilling.

Link: New York Undercover Nurse exposes COVID-19 Crimes

This COVID panic is a criminal exploit. Follow the money, and the power.

Johnny Bee Dawg said...

LINK: Worldwide Peer Review of fraudulent Chinese research papers about COVID

Apparently fraudulent data in dozens of peer-reviewed articles spark fresh worries about ‘paper mills’ used by researchers under pressure to publish.

HONG KONG—Internationally peer-reviewed journals published more than 100 scientific research papers from China-based authors that appear to have reused identical sets of images, raising questions about the proliferation of problematic science as institutions fast-track research during the coronavirus pandemic.

The cache of 121 papers, credited to researchers from hospitals and medical universities across roughly 50 cities in China, all shared at least one image with another—a sign that many were likely produced by the same company or “paper mill,” said Elisabeth Bik, a California-based microbiologist and image-analysis expert who identified the trove.

Though the reports were published by different authors over a four-year period, many included identical snapshots of cell colonies—sometimes rotated or cropped to appear unique—despite focusing on different research topics. Phrases in figure captions were also repeated verbatim across the collection of reports.

Still, the apparently fraudulent research made it past the scientific peer-review process at six international journals, with the European Review for Medical and Pharmacological Sciences alone publishing 113 of the 121 papers.

One of the questionable reports was subsequently cited by other researchers more than 50 times since 2017, according to Google Scholar, while three others received more than 20 citations—suggesting the impact that the problematic papers could have on other research.

Such paper mill productions are “polluting the scientific body of work,” said Dr. Bik, a former researcher at the Stanford School of Medicine who quit her job at a medical startup last year to investigate research misconduct full-time. “I’m worried they might be the tip of the iceberg.”

Reached for comment, the European Review for Medical and Pharmacological Sciences said it would contact the authors in question and ask them to prove the originality of their data.

See remainder of article in the LINK above

The Cliff Claven of Finance said...

Please don't listen to Deputy Dawg's pronouncements about face masks

They are net beneficial for society

He is spouting conspiracy theory tin foil hat nonsense on that specific topic.

Masks significantly reduce the "spray distance" when someone coughs or sneezes.

So you are bettrer off if everybody else in the world wears a mask.

Even a cheap 99 cent mask used one day, and then thrown away,

I HAD TO wear a mask to see my doctor yesterday.

The strap broke within one hour !

His mask was down and he shook hands with me before I left.

I asked him whether our governor Witless had not outlawed shaking hands in Michigan and we laughed.

Grechster said...

It's hard to know anything for certain. But my spider sense tells me JBD is correct. When you follow the money and the power it's hard not to come to some very sinister potential agendas out there.

And can we stop using "conspiracy theory" as a cudgel? Grown men know that the very powerful conspire in horrible ways. Always have, always will. To not believe that is the crazy thinking...

The Cliff Claven of Finance said...

Gretchter
I don't know what "spider sense" but yours needs adjusting.

Covid science is in the learning stage.

There are no experts yet.

There is real science backing the use of masks.

They cut down the "spray distance" of coughs, sneezes, hollering at the police and even singing in a choir.

That benefits society.

They don't cause prople to get sick if you use a new 99 cent mask every day you need one.

There is no real science backing the 6 foot social distancing "rule" -- a violent cough can "spray" 20 feet.

A mask might bring that down to 6 feet or 10 feet.

I can't stand wearing a mask and spent less than three hours wearing masks since March 15.

But I respect real science, especially when done BEFORE an election year.
And before covid 19 showed up.

WEAR A MASK if you get close to people.

If you are coughing or sneezing just stay home.

Like we all used to do in the past when we were sick and polite.

Sorry but I love the term "conspiracy theory" and the word "smarmy" and have vowed to use both every single day so I remember how to spell them.

This is a wonderful country -- where else could a dingbat like AOC get a job paying $174,000 a year?

Grechster said...

Cliff: I wasn't commenting on the use of masks or any of the technical aspects of the virus. I was thinking of the government's response to the virus. And I believe the context was clear - JBD had commented that the COVID panic was a criminal exploit and to follow the money and power. I broadly agree with that sentiment.

WealthMony said...

The surge in new COVID-19 cases is troubling. What did we not do that China did? The WSJ reports that its economy is now growing year-over-year. We have situations where people tested as positive COVID-19 when they say they were never tested. I have personally heard of such cases locally. Then there is perhaps a greater problem of a person being tested multiple times who is positive COVID and each test counts as a separate test-positive. There's no way these testings can be monitored, so the whole situation is a mess. Ya'll are right that we can't trust any of the data.

At the same time, this is bringing havoc on the US economy and hurting people who work for a living.

Without a booming economy (we may have one by November) I don't see any way DT gets elected to a second term. The Dems are offering a pathetic alternative, and I have no confidence in what Biden's administration might do. Joe seems committed to the extreme left. I see much higher taxes and much higher wasteful spending if the Dems gain the White House and Senate and hold the House. Unfortunately, they seem much more capable in getting things done than do the hapless Republicans. What did the Republican House give us? Just a tax bill that will die with the next Democratic administration and the First Step Act. The Senate did get two Supreme Court justices who are constitutional thinkers but most of the pluses that have come from the Trump presidency is a result of executive orders and they are easily reversed.

What did the Dems accomplish? Roger Stone and Michael Flynn and others were prosecuted for wrongdoing in the 2016 campaign. Not one person on the other side has been brought to justice---not one. There's a new way to spell inept---Republican. Their failure to get charges brought against that herd of Dems is now going to hurt Trump this November.

Donald does not help himself. That rambling Rose Garden speech he gave this week was pathetic even though what he said was true.

At this point I am not optimistic about November, not with the media solidly opposed to the president, and not with the president stumbling over his own speech patterns that ramble and do not stoke confidence, and not with a Republican Senate and House that seemingly can't get anything done or even articulate an optimistic vision. If Biden gets elected and is able to raise corporate taxes to 28% and individual taxes to 39% and increase regulations and begin the Green New Deal and back off China and further limit free speech, I do not see the recovery continuing. I fear it will end.

Oeconomicus said...

What about double dip recession from re-shutting down? Market says no so far.

Oeconomicus said...

Could this be where we finally get a durable increase in productivity? If unemployment numbers and manufacturing accurate look's like productivity could finally have a lasting increase.

The Cliff Claven of Finance said...

Wealth Money
Good comment.

But you are too pessimistic.

Biden was "below average" before the mild dementia.

AND now he's running as a socialist.

If Repubicans picked Trump's opponent they could not do "better" than Joe "Chauncey
Gardener" Biden !

Trump is obnoxious, brags far too much about himself and often sounds like he hasn't read a book in decades.

But he has good instincts on most subjects, didn't start a useless war, and always knows what state he is in.

If you are always optimistic, you.will be right most of the time -- if always pessimistic you will be wrong most of the time.

Politicians all over the world saw covid as an excuse to take charge and wild guess what to do, helped by the media inciting panic.

They've done the same thing with climate change since the 1980s.

What we really need is less government and more freedom.

And wear masks.

Johnny Bee Dawg said...

Cliff:
Masks are bad for your health, and they actually help spread the virus. That is why DEM Governors demand you wear them.
You can pontificate all you want, but the SCIENCE is clear. Masks dont work.

Just to remind you: ALL of the peer-reviewed, randomly controlled trial studies (the gold standard) conclude that masks do not work to stop a respiratory virus. It might seem counterintuitive until you understand how the particles move and spread.

Kinda like the market climbing a wall of worry, or buying on rumor & selling on news.

The Cliff Claven of Finance said...

Deputy Dawg:
I challenge you to provide links to prove masks help spread Covid (or any airborne spead virus).

Otherwise I stand by my assertion that you are wrong about masks.

And you ARE wrong.

And of course that means we can't trust anything you will say on any subject in the future, or anyhing you have ever said on any subject in the past ?

The market climbs a wall of worry makes no sense even when scott says it.

People buy and sell stocks every day.

Who is worried?

Maybe the sellers are worried but the buyers must not be.

STOCK MARKET prices climb a ladder of optimism.

Optimism peaks at or near market peaks.

Stock prices, on average, go down as investor optimism, on average, goes down.


And masks reduce the distance of the "spray" coming at you from someone who coughs, sneezes or hollers in your direction -- otherwise they do nothing except to annoy the wearer.

That is based on real science.
It applies to airborne diseases in general.
Specific conclusions about Covid are still in the learning stage.

I have a BS degree so know BS when I hear it.
Also, Al Gore and I invented the internet.

WealthMony said...

There is an excellent opinion piece by Kimberley Strassel in the July 17 WSJ about the election. We all know that seasoned politicians run with promises they never intend to keep, but Joe Biden is making promises that are severely dangerous to the US economy, even if only some of them are kept.

I want our government to do everything it possibly can to make individual achievement and prosperity possible, but Mr. Biden seems to want government to do the achieving on behalf of the individual, and is eager to put handcuffs on industries and businesses to restrict progress and prosperity for the individual.

If we are to regain quickly the broad demographic prosperity we experienced before the pandemic, we need to keep the same White House administration in power for four more years. Prosperity for one! Prosperity for all! Damn the pandemic!

Frozen in the North said...

Masques being Dangerous...Yeah that's why doctors have been using them for more than 90 years... What's next Peneciline promotes infections.

Then again you think that Trump's rose garden speech made sense...did you actually try to listen to what he was saying...

Next you will say that people queue for hours multiple times a week to get more tests. On what planet do you live, and that's the reason there were 67,000 new cases yesterday. Oh and to make it worse, more than 50% of those infected are below the age of 40.

Forget a death rate of 1%, think of all the hospitalization, the damaged livers, brain function, lungs. these are not nothing. Then again you may be like that ex-game show host who suddenly took down his tweet because his sun got Covid19

fixer said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Johnny Bee Dawg said...

Doctors wears masks in a sterile environment. And it’s mostly for show. And it’s tradition.

Just a reminder: There have been extensive randomized controlled trial (RCT) studies, and meta-analysis reviews of RCT studies, which ALL show that masks and respirators do not work to prevent respiratory influenza-like illnesses, or respiratory illnesses believed to be transmitted by droplets and aerosol particles.

fixer said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
fixer said...

Actually, it's a good thing that people under 40 represent more than 50% of the "infections". In the US, the number of deaths of people under 40 is about 2% of the total though they constitute >50% of the population. In general, this age group has little problem with the virus.

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Death-Counts-by-Sex-Age-and-S/9bhg-hcku

Johnny Bee Dawg said...

Hey Cliff...do you ever touch your mask while you are out walking around in the COVID soup we are told is everywhere?
Then do you ever touch anything else? Uh oh. Touch your face? Double uh oh.
Tsk tsk. You just spread virus, whether you think you did or not.

Do you discard your mask every few minutes after it accumulates virus on the cloth at your breathing hole?
Do you stuff it in your pocket? Carry it around from store to store, touching it each time?
Just curious.

Doesn't look like you bothered to click the link and read about the Science studies about masks in my post above about the topic.

Maybe a video would be more accessible.
Here is one showing how masks spread virus. You can see it with your own eyes.
LINK: MASKS SPREADING VIRUS

Oeconomicus said...

JBD is correct in all his reasons why masks are not effective so I won't repeat them.

Masks are not practical and have turned ordinarily reasonable people into enemies.

People are being killed over fights about mask wearing.

Think about that.

Johnny Bee Dawg said...

Frozen, et al:

According to CDC, only 8% of US hospital beds are occupied with COVID or "suspected" COVID patients, as of July 14.
Read that again.

The worst hospitalization state in the nation is Arizona, and they are only at 26% COVID beds. That is LOW, LOW, LOW.
Hospitals are completely able to handle this flu virus. The curve "flattened" months ago.
There is no reason to shut down the economy in ANY state, except to try and harm growth and jobs, and try to effect an election.

Rational America and the stock market see right thru it all.
America's 401-K accounts are at all time highs right now, and Americans notice that.
My accounts are at all time highs, again, just before lunch, while the DOW is down 50.

Media and DEM Governors are overreaching.
Baby Daughter got "mask shamed" running in UV-drenched Los Angeles yesterday by some woman.
Baby Daughter was running...alone....in the road, off the sidewalk...outdoors. More than 6 ft away from Karen.
DEMs are crazy.

Trump ROLLS in November.

The Cliff Claven of Finance said...

Deputy Dawg
On masks you are wrong.

Your so called science is lunatics spouting off on YouTube.

Of course I agree that touching your mask makes wearing one counterproductive.

I wore a mask for about three hours in the past four months.

Doctors office would not let me in without one.

Never touched my face or took it off.

Threw out each new mask as soon as I left the doctor's office.

How could you allow a daughter to live in the California lunatic asylum?

I bet your 401 accounts reached record highs under OBUMMER but that didn't make him a good president.

Media and Dem. Governors are always over reaching

DEMS are crazy and have become congenital liars.

Like the Clintons always were.

I write about the lying in one of my three blogs
www.ElectionCircus.Blogspot.com

You would probably agree with most of what I have written since 2016 ... But it is more fun to argue about face masks.

Say hi to your motorcycle gang.

Johnny Bee Dawg said...

Well, Cliff, my "so-called Science" is peer-reviewed randomized controlled trial (RCT) studies, and meta-analysis reviews of RCT studies...which I supplied. If a mask makes you feel better, then by all means wear one.
But masks are bad for your health, and they help spread the virus.

Just realize that our governments are dictating a range of behaviors for WELL PEOPLE, not sick people. All against Science, to promote fear and destruction of our economy.

With a mask, we can all look the same, and better be part of The Collective. Masks help you to buy into the Doom & Fear zeitgeist they seek to invent with their media pals.
Nobody needs to see a smile or a frown. With a mask, we can all be good little obedient automatons, and remove all human contact and intimacy. No social groupings. Stay away. SIX FEET! Fear "The Other!" Your neighbor might kill you with an invisible creature without even knowing. You might kill Grandma!!
Your kids face certain death at school! Keep them home, and unsocialized. Destroy their immune systems. Its worth it.
We just cant know!! It could be anywhere! Just wait two weeks!
Its too new...we won't know for sure about this virus until Biden's inauguration.

Almost like 330 million individual "solitary confinement" sentences. "Stay safe!!" is the most insipid slogan for this age.
People get weird in solitary confinement, and the Mask wooziness from the CO2 helps keep 'em docile and confused.
The only mask I wear says "I Cant Breathe" on it, but it's just a matter of time until Antifa jacks me from behind with a baseball bat.

Cant control the baby daughter, Cliff, but I do love L.A. except for the traffic.
The Baby is all growed up. She is getting her PhD at UCLA to get on that Government Research gravy train!
Only advice I gave was whatever she works on...find a way to Weaponize it, because there's always money in the Military Industrial Complex!!. Just put "Kill, Kill, Kill" in the grant proposals.

It took years to get America's 401-Ks back to new highs with Barack's lawlessness, and scolding and threats of tax.
My man, Trump, got us back in 90 days.

God Bless Donald!
And God Bless Scott for putting up with all this crap in his comments section!
Have a great weekend!

The Cliff Claven of Finance said...

There are no large controlled studies of masks and the corona virus.

There have been studies of masks and other viruses.

One 2013 double blind study of a virus of a similar size found that all masks were useful, although none like a well fitting N95 mask.

The virus is so.small it passes through cotton.

But the much bigger water vapor particles that carry the virus are at least partially blocked by any mask.

Masks are important because so many infected people have no symptoms. And don't stay home -- if they go out in public and cough they spread virus further than with no mask on.

That is the science of a physical barrier.

If masks help, then they will help Trump get reelected and you will be happy (me too).

Congratulations on your daughter getting a PhD.

I assume she was adopted?

Heh heh

You argue in the style of Floyd R.Turbo (duck duck go that name) which I find very entertaining.

This disease is not a hoax but the response to it may be even worse.

I have a climate science blog where I try to explain why climate change is real but is harmless -- leftists are so anti-science they think wild guesses of the future climate must be true because government bureaucrat scientists say so.
My science blog has had over 61,000 page views

www.elOnionBloggle.Blogspot.com

randy said...

Cliff.. on the climate change front, you might like Holman Jenkins recent editorial. As he says:

"We're lucky the climate challenge is overblown because politics obviously can’t solve it. Carnegie Europe’s Jan Techau coined one of my favorite phrases, sophisticated state failure, which he lays to the "sheer difficulty of governing complex, highly diverse societies"."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-climate-plan-is-seriousabout-green-pork-11595024735?st=mytr0sb6vkmqrpg

Mr. Jenkins is probably my favorite columnist. Really good at tearing through the bull*t and seeing things for what they really are.

Oeconomicus said...

Scott- Do you think the equity market could be forecasting better corporate structural costs and economies of scale via creative destruction of the past social and business norms?

ie; Less human interaction going forward including labor costs due to the supposed need to stop viruses spreading.

Also the eventual lower physical capital cost structure of corporations, substituting lower physical capital costs for relatively expensive labor costs.

The Cliff Claven of Finance said...

Deputy Dawg
Thank you for all the Covid data

The TV news has politicized their reporting.

In a few months they will probably be claiming Trump invented the virus, colluding with Russians, to make the Chinese look bad ~ or something
like that.

My article on COVIC Deceptions ad LIes, with nine good charts, is here:
:
www.ElectionCircus.Blogspot.com

WealthMony said...

Some of you may remember the days of Walter Cronkite on CBS News, a liberal anchor. However, with his reporting and that of Huntley-Brinkley the listener could not easily detect liberal bias, although I suspect it was there. There is no question about the bias, often extreme, on news channels today, and that includes even the morning shows, which should be lighter. I think this came about through several developments: 24-hour news channels starting with CNN, the emergence of PBS and NPR without any real voice for conservatism. Before Fox News ever surfaced to compete there was the 30-minute CROSSFIRE on CNN with its battered conservative journalist, Robert Novak. PBS carried William F. Buckley's FIRING LINE but it was clear that conservative shows were outliers. The force of news was driving ever leftward. It has been like this now for a very long time. It is probably what most people know. So there we have this persistent pushing to the left for bigger and stronger government serving as our nanny. We witness it on television, in print media, in college classrooms, administrations, and government itself. Now, public corporations are falling in line. Even the military complex has been taken in. There is an ideological war going on and it's not just between the US and China. It is here at home.

Unknown said...

Scott, do you have a chart of the S&P 500 vs the S&P 495? I'm really surprised no one has come up with an index or a EFT of the S&P ex FAANG.

The Cliff Claven of Finance said...

Unknown
The charts you asked about were posted within batches of charts posted on my finance blog on July 14 and July 16

The home page is
Www.el2017.Blogspot.com

AVVOCATO PEDOFILO ASSASSINO DANIELE MINOTTI DI GENOVA E RAPALLO! said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
The Cliff Claven of Finance said...

Postkey
You display great ignorance of climate sciencs.

Wild guesses about the future climate that have been consistently
Wrong for 50 years are not real science.

A science degree does not change that.

Real science requires predictions that are correct ... and repeatedly adjusting historical temperature data to make predictions less wrong is science fraud.

Your pitiful argument is based on the appeal to authority logical fallacy.

Your writing suggests you may be intelligent with some subjects but climate science is not one of them.

I have enjoyed reading climate science studies and articles since 1997.

I started a climate science blog a few years ago and have had over 61,000 page views.

Pick a subject you know something about before you make another comment.

I assume you are a liberal who trusts everything you hear
from government agencies.

Did you also believe Iraq had weapons of mass destruction?

Did you believe the June 2020 claim of 11 percent unemployment
When almost 32 million were collecting unemployment checks
Out of about 160 million workers?

That's about 20 percent unemployment.

Don't trust the government

And their climate scientists have no business
Making wrong predictions of the future climate
Which is currently the best it has been iat least 500 years.

Global warming has been in progress
For 325 years so far and no one was harmed.

I wrote this much only because I thought
You were capable of learning.

I'm a proud libertarian since 1973.

WealthMony said...

There are multiple policy directions that would likely surface under a President Joe Biden, but one that concerns me a great deal would be his plans for China. What would he do to confront the China 2025 program? Sadly, no previous administration has taken on the goals of China to rule the world while championing Communist Socialism as a better way than US capitalism. The Trump presidency has really rocked the boat of China ascendancy. The United States has a lot riding on this issue, and if we really care about our country, our grandchildren and their children's children, we must continue to pursue the Trump doctrine on China.

Rick Jones said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Rick Jones said...

Donald Trump just floated the idea of delaying the elections. I take this to be his opening move on quitting.

The COVID situation is pretty bad, with over 150,000 dead and currently 1,400 new deaths a day (sort of like the flu, eh, Scott?).

The economic numbers are horrible, and in view of the COVID situation not likely to get better anytime soon. Plus, the Senate Republicans are balking at a new stimulus.

And to top it all off, his poll numbers are abysmal in all the places that matter:

• Arizona: Biden 46%, Trump 38% (Redfield & Wilton)
• Florida: Biden 50%, Trump 46% (Mason Dixon)
• Florida: Biden 48%, Trump 41% (Redfield & Wilton)
• Michigan: Biden 49%, Trump 37% (Redfield & Wilton)
• North Carolina: Biden 43%, Trump 42% (Redfield & Wilton)
• North Carolina: Trump 48%, Biden 47% (Cardinal Point)
• Pennsylvania: Biden 50%, Trump 41% (Franklin & Marshall)
• Pennsylvania: Biden 48%, Trump 41% (Redfield & Wilton)
• Wisconsin: Biden 45%, Trump 35% (Redfield & Wilton)

He's trapped, and he knows it.

So he floats the idea of delaying the election because mail-in is subject to fraud and cheating. He knows full well Nancy Pelosi won't support this. And so he'll quit. He'll say, "F*ck it, I'm not running in a rigged election."

As Johnny Bee Dawg says...hmmm...I forget...what does JBD say? Something like, "Time will tell."

The Cliff Claven of Finance said...

Rick Jones
You don't understand Trump.

Voting by mail enables fraud that can't be detected.

Trump made that point in a way that got everyone's attention.

He knows the election day won't be changed.

But he's got Democrats overreacting once again.

On polls, they did not work in 2016 and are even worse now. Trump 5 points behind means nothing. After 4 years demonizing Trump, I'm surprised anyone would admit to a stranger they planned to vote for him

An intelligent Democrat with moderate positions who supports the police could win.

But the Democrats are going with mentally shaky Biden, with far left positions and anti-police comments.

It's almost like the Democrats want to lose so they can continue insulting Trump for another four years.

The GDP declining 8 percent last quarter with 20 percent of the labor force collecting unemployment is better than I expected - almost hard to believe.And of the 8 percent decline quarter to quarter, one point was from inventory reduction which is counted as bad news but really is not.

Trump needs rallies to win
BIDEN needs to avoid debates
Maybe Covid will be an excuse to prevent rallies and avoid debates?

Don't count Trump out - he may be obnoxious but is a good salesman and a consistent winnner -- I have no idea why but those are facts.

The 3Q 2020 GDP data will be released in late October - bound to look good compared with 2Q 2020

cbt696 said...

There’s Rick Jones!

“ The COVID situation is pretty bad, with over 150,000 dead and currently 1,400 new deaths a day (sort of like the flu, eh, Scott?).”

If I were liking for a human being, I’d step over you in the hunt.

Rick Jones said...

Scott said:

If I were liking for a human being, I’d step over you in the hunt.

Is that supposed to be an English sentence?

cbt696 said...

*lookiing for

Rick Jones said...

Scott said:

lookiing for

Try again.

cbt696 said...

Doesn’t make you any less of a truly ugly character.

Rick Jones said...

Scott said:

Doesn’t make you any less of a truly ugly character.

With my mask on I don't know how you could say that. LOL!

But seriously...just because I am pointing out how wrong, wrong, wrong you have been about the virus?

cbt696 said...

Mr. Jones
I apologize for my remark. It was unkind.
This not about virus counts and fatalities.
It is about human liberties, individual rights.
Read Jeffrey Tucker’s work at AIER
God bless. I hope you remain well.

Rick Jones said...

Scott wrote:

>Read Jeffrey Tucker’s work at AIER

You know, as a show of good faith, I shall.

Rick Jones said...

The Cliff Claven of Finance wrote:

>On polls, they did not work in 2016...

Well, actually a lot of them did. Don't forget -- even for a minute -- that Donald Trump did not win the popular vote. And he didn't trail by a few hanging chads...he trailed by almost 3 million votes. Many pollsters saw that.

The people who were more at fault than the pollsters were the forecasters: Cook, Sabato, Gonzales, etc. But if you bother to read their postmortems, their models often gave Trump a much higher chance than they publicly forecast. The reason: they thought Trump winning was so unlikely that their models must have been wrong. And so they changed their forecasts.

But do keep this thought in mind: only 46.1% of the voters went for Trump in 2016. Since then -- except for his first month in office -- his disapproval rating has never been lower than 50%, and his approval rating has never been higher than 46%.

Also since then, the Democrats gained 41 seats in the House of Representatives in 2018. That certainly says something about the mood of the country.

Also, the pollsters and forecasters learned a few lessons from 2016, and have adjusted their methods. But more important, the current national Biden/Trump polls are consistent with state polls, and they are consistent with Senate polls and with Senate fundraising numbers.

There is no telling what might happen, and I am not making a black and white forecast. But I do think there's a significantly better than 0.5 probability that the rather weak tides that carried Donald Trump along in 2016 have changed quite a bit, and that it's more likely than not that Joe Biden will be the next President, and that he'll have a Democratic House and Senate to work with.

The Cliff Claven of Finance said...

The polls were wrong in 2016.
The popular vote does not matter.
I recall Trump won the popular vote in the 49 states
Excluding CA.

Hillary was smarter than Biden, much more moderate than
Biden and I don't remember her as anti-police.

Biden is so mentally challenged he makes Trump look smart.

His methodology for picking a VP is a disgrace.

Joe Chauncy Gardener Biden
vs
Donald Loudmouth Trump

The two best and brightest we have?

Rick Jones said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Rick Jones said...

The Cliff Claven of Finance wrote:

>I recall Trump won the popular vote in the 49 states excluding CA.

LOL! Perhaps you should see a doctor about that problem with recollection you seem to have.

Clinton won the popular vote in Washington State, Oregon, California, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, Illinois, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, and the District of Columbia.

The Cliff Claven of Finance said...

Rick Jones
Keep that mask on.
Of course I was right and you were wrong.

Hillary won the popular vote by 3 million.

Hillary won by 4 million in California.

That means for all the other 49 states,
AS A GROUP of 49 states,
Hillary lost the popular vote
by 1 million.

Numbers rounded to the nearest million.

Rick Jones said...

The Cliff Claven of Finance wrote:

Hillary won the popular vote by 3 million...Hillary won by 4 million in California....That means for all the other 49 states...AS A GROUP of 49 states...Hillary lost the popular vote by 1 million.

Please tell me you're not that fucking stupid.

As I said earlier, Hillary won the popular vote in 19 states plus the District of Columbia.

The fact that she won by 4 million in California, plus won the popular vote in 18 other states -- but won by 3 million in aggregate -- simply means that she lost the popular vote by a wider margin in the remaining states.

Go to this site and click on the red and blue states to see what the popular vote results were:

2016 Presidential Elections

And you really expect people to look at your climate change blog when you write crap like that? Sheesh...

The Cliff Claven of Finance said...

Rick Jones
Hillary lost

Popular vote is irrelevant.

She had 4 million more
Popular votes in CA.

For the other 49 states
As a group of 49 states,
The 49 state total popular
Vote for Trump exceeded
The total 49 state popular
Vote for Hillary by about
One million votes
In total.

I've tried to explain
This again in a way that
Even a child could understand,
MR. JONES,
so please find a child
to explain it to you.

My climate science blog
has had over 62,000 page views

I suppose your rude, incorrect
comments here have had
5 or 6 page views!

Aaron J. Courtney said...

Six weeks ago, I warned you ideological bozos with the following: "These dire predictions will then most certainly pull out the "memory T cell" advocates. Sure some validity there. But in order for that pathway to be utilized by the adaptive immune system, CD4/CD8 memory T cells, depending on which particular interleukin is present, either go the TH1 or TH2 route. And that's one more opportunity for a dysregulated immune system to go haywire with an overproduction of cytotoxic T cells that will once again annihilate everything cellular in sight, likely promoting more thrombotic microangiopathy and even macro-circulatory thromboembolic complications leading to even greater sequelae if not outright death depending, once again, on the state of the healthcare system."

Fast forward to what was released this week from the Ragon Institute of MGH/MIT/Harvard crew. And what is the latest conclusion regarding durable immunity as a function of a humoral immune response post Covid-19 critical care and recovery?

"In contrast to the reduced GC-TFH cell numbers, TH1 cells were consistently increased early and late in both the lymph nodes and spleen, whereas an increase in TH17 cells was more variable (Fig. 4). In contrast, a consistent reduction in TH2 cells was observed (Fig. 4). Overall there was an increase in secondary lymphoid organ CD4+ T cells relative to CD8+ T cells in COVID-19 secondary lymphoid organs though this was variable (Fig. S4). These data indicate that the defect in GCtype TFH cell differentiation is specific and suggest that this defect may be indirectly linked to the strong TH1 response seen in this disease."

So the T helper 1 pathway is preferred as I predicted in severe illness. But what's worse than that is the apparent absence of germinal centers in the lymphatic system necessary for robust B cell production from the T helper 2 pathway. And once the adaptive immune system preferentially activates the T helper 1 pathway, perhaps through some sort of an immunomodulatory feedback mechanism, it keeps pumping it, repeating the cascaded effects from the cytokine storm that caused the FIRST bout of severe illness. In short, a dysregulated immune response to your first exposure to SARS-CoV-2 basically guarantees a repeat experience upon reinfection, which is all but guaranteed to happen upon re-exposure.

This is a freaking disaster in the making.

https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0092867420310679