Sunday, April 19, 2020

The beginning of the end of the shutdown

‘This is the worst it’s ever been’: L.A. Mayor announces city worker furloughs during State of the City address.

More than HALF of Los Angeles workers are now unemployed just one month into coronavirus lockdowns.

FINALLY, politicians are realizing that the shutdown of the US economy is a huge disaster. Air travel at LAX is down 95%. City revenues are evaporating. 

This extreme and utterly depressing news is actually good news, since it means that the politicians that ordered the shutdown are now feeling the consequences. Before, they were acting nobly, to save millions of lives. Now they realize they have jeopardized everyone's lives—and their own futures—by shutting down the economy. When people discover they have skin in the game, their perspective shifts. They are no longer a spectator, they become a participant. 

Welcome to the real world, Eric.

HT: Glenn Reynolds, my nominee for Most Valuable Citizen-Journalist.

Reminder: The shutdown of the US economy will prove to be the most expensive self-inflicted injury in the history of mankind.™


randy said...

Tangentially related to the post, but what can you do but shake your head. The link is from the left leaning Salon to be fair to the other side. You really have to twist an argument to not see that filling the reserve is just common sense. If there was a storage reserve for wind or solar, that would be good to fill too. Alas, storage remains the holy grail or quixotic depending on your perspective. The decision tree for advocates is easy. If it's positive for carbon or nuclear it's bad - no matter the details. If it's positive for renewables it's good, no matter the details.

Democrats argued that if the government was going to bail out the oil industry by purchasing $3 billion of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, why not help other hurting energy industries, too? The clash seems to have ended in a draw, as neither the oil bailout nor any clean energy or emissions reduction measures are in the most recent version of the bill.

steve said...

Crude trading at $11.50. Unreal. Cannot bode well for economic prognosis. On the bright side it will be a lot less expensive to heat house, run car, fly etc...But on balance I have a hard time seeing the good news in this.

Frozen in the North said...


I don't understand, usually, you complain the public officials don't care about the money -- now they do? You are right, I am certain that city/state officials are well aware of the impact of "stay at home" rules. Obviously, when being questions they say that this is a problem -- it is a problem, but not a pressing one!

As for Randy: dude strategic petroleum reserves are already full. its not $3 billion that will make a difference to oil prices...really its not. The one group it will help is the US government because they are going to buy oil cheap.

randy said...

"The one group it will help is the US government because they are going to buy oil cheap."

Doesn't that mean the citizens of the government? That doesn't sound evil to help the citizens.

Adam said...

This article confirms the thesis of a rulers biggest mistake ever.

Rick Jones said...

Adam said:

>This article...

That's a fascinating article. Thanks for sharing.

steve said...

Last crude print.....$7.91 Like WTF. Scott, edify us.

JHCA said...

Out of curiosity, what was the RIGHT policy response in your opinion?

Adam said...

Always happy to share.
I follow LT3000 blog, ie. Lyall Taylor on TWTR. He has found that. BTW he was second source, after Scott, who had a cool stance and called right the panic extremum. LT 3000 is my top read on equities related stories.

JDonley said...

interesting.....instead of getting royalty checks every month, those lucky, fortunate enough to have production will be getting a bill every month. is this a great world or what?

AL said...

Scott, I don't understand...wouldn't the US hospital system have been overwhelmed and eventually crash if we didn't have the lock-down? Didn't we need to buy some time to understand the virus further, while making sure our hospitals weren't swamped? Although I'm fine hearing what others on this forum have to say about this, I'd loved to hear directly from you. Thank you sir.

Benjamin Cole said...

A new study on LA County, from USC–

“221,000 to 442,000 adults” in LA County have COVID-19 antibodies in their blood. No one knows how many additional children have anti-bodies to COVID-19.

There are 617 COVID-19 related deaths in the county, usually people with co-morbidities.

That’s a 0.01% to 0.03% death rate from COVID-19—but even that measures only adults. The death rate would sink if children were added into the mix.

No doubt the USC study will now be attacked or defended on its methodology, because COVID-19 is no longer about policy options, but defending one’s previous positions or even ideologies.

Frankly, I think hysteria beat science.

Rick Jones said...

Benjamin Cole said:

>Frankly, I think hysteria beat science.

When has it not?

Daniel Kahneman said, “No one ever made a decision because of a number. They need a story.”

We are not going to get back to anywhere near normal until there's a better -- but believable -- story.

Scott Grannis said...

For perspective on the China virus that you won't see in the MSM here, I highly recommend checking this website every few days:

Rick Jones said...

Scott Grannis said:

>For perspective on the China virus that you won't see in the MSM here, I highly recommend checking this website every few days...

You should also spend some time on Google or DuckDuckGo researching the veracity and reputation of this site. My admittedly quick look indicates it's not something I'd put too much stock in.

ahihi said...
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ahihi said...

Thanks for sharing, great post!

Áo khoác Đà Lạt chuyên sỉ và lẻ áo khoác áo khoác nam với giá ưu đãi nhất 2020. Luôn cập nhật mẫu mới chất lượng và dày ấm nhất kể cả với thời tiết lạnh giá các nước có du học sinh và xuất khẩu lao động. được đồng hành cùng các bạn!!!!