Wednesday, February 1, 2012

ADP report points to decent jobs growth

The ADP estimate of January private sector job gains dipped from its relatively strong December level, but is fully consistent with the 163K jobs number this Friday that the market is expecting. No sign here of any meaningful deterioration. As with the manufacturing report today, this is one more reason to expect 3-4% growth, and one more reason to not worry about a double-dip recession.


Anonymous said...

TrimTabs, which I previously regarded as an accurate read of the month's jobs report, seems to have completely lost it this month (and to a lesser extent, last month). Today they estimated January jobs would rise only 45K jobs based on withholding tax receipts ... but both of my 2 sources of withholding tax data have shown a large jump in the growth of withholding receipts compared to a year ago. Have no idea what's going on with them.

They should also be wary of their own conclusions based on initial jobless claims. The recent levels and trends of jobless claims point to much larger jobs gains than they're estimating.

Benjamin Cole said...

The word "decent" is prevalent in Scott Grannis' reportage today, and that about sums it up. Fair, but this is not like hitting a home run, or making love to a young Raquel Welch.

Just okay. The Fed is priapic about the results however. No inflation.