If you subscribe to my good friend Steve Moore's daily Hotline (subscribe for free
here), you have already seen this. I reprint it so as to maximize its distribution. These proposals are so astoundingly anti-business and anti-prosperity that I can't imagine they will ever see the light of day. But at the very least you have here a liberal wish-list that, if even partially enacted, would very likely eviscerate the economy.
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Kamala Proposes $5 Trillion in New Taxes – the Biggest Tax Hike in the History of the World |
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We've argued that Harris-Walz is the most anti-business ticket by a major presidential party in our lifetimes and perhaps in American history. And we said this BEFORE we saw the new tax plan.
Instead of lowering tax rates to make America more competitive, it raises nearly everyone.
The Harris tax plan would:
- Raise the corporate tax from 21% to 28%
- Quadruple the tax on stock buybacks from 1% to 4%
- Double the global minimum tax from 10% to 20%
- Raise the top Income tax rate from 37% to 39.6%
- Raise the corporate alternative minimum tax from 15% to 21%
- Raise the capital gains tax from 24% to 43.5%
- Impose the first-ever tax on unrealized capital gains at 25%
- Double the number of Americans subject to the death tax
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The compounding effect of these multiple tiers of taxation would mean that a $100 investment in a new company could be subject to an 80% tax rate. |
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19 comments:
Republicans need to choose between ban on abortions or a socialist Marxist presidency.
If Trump/Republicans state that abortions are up to individual choice it's a 100% win. That's it.
As bad as those tax proposals are, except for the unrealized gains tax, they are mostly in the bell curve of awful policies legislators have authority to enact. I'm more disgusted with the attacks on institutions and democracy (for all the left talk about protecting democracy). The attacks on the legitimacy of the Supreme Court as a prelude to packing is about the worst. Abandoning the filibuster and the attacks on the electoral college too.
So basically back to where things were pre 2018?
Election 100% odds Trump wins!!! "Swamp" now controlling USA will be MANAGED!!! Pres + VP + House + Senate + Supreme CT all on same page!!!
First 3 days Under TRUMP = EXCITING!!
I asked Chat GPT who the policies would benefit and hurt the most, here is the answer:
"The proposed tax policies would significantly alter the U.S. tax code, affecting various groups differently. Here's a breakdown of who would likely benefit and who would be hurt the most:
Beneficiaries:
Government: The primary beneficiary would be the U.S. government, which would see a significant increase in tax revenue. This could potentially fund increased government spending or reduce the national debt.
Lower-income earners: While the proposed tax policies would increase taxes on high-income earners and corporations, they could also lead to increased government spending on programs that benefit lower-income individuals, such as education, healthcare, and infrastructure.
Certain industries: Some industries, such as those that rely heavily on government contracts or subsidies, might benefit from increased government spending.
Those Hurt:
High-income earners: The proposed tax increases on personal income, capital gains, and unrealized capital gains would disproportionately affect high-income individuals, potentially reducing their disposable income and investment capacity.
Corporations: Increased corporate taxes could lead to reduced corporate profits, lower investment, and potentially fewer jobs.
Stockholders: Higher taxes on stock buybacks and capital gains could reduce the returns on investments for stockholders.
Small businesses: While the impact on small businesses would vary, some might face increased costs due to higher corporate taxes and potential regulatory burdens.
Estate planning: The expanded death tax could have significant implications for estate planning, potentially forcing families to sell assets or restructure their estates to minimize tax burdens.
Important Considerations:
Economic Impact: The overall economic impact of these policies is uncertain and would depend on factors such as how businesses and individuals respond to the changes.
Political Feasibility: The political feasibility of implementing these policies is also uncertain, as they would likely face significant opposition from various interest groups.
Alternative Approaches: There are alternative approaches to raising revenue, such as closing tax loopholes or increasing spending efficiency, which might have a less significant impact on individuals and businesses.
It is crucial to consider the potential benefits and drawbacks of these proposed tax policies carefully, as they could have far-reaching implications for the U.S. economy and society."
I can see why some in this group are against them.
hey scott - curious where you are on the fear / optimistic end of the spectrum at this point - you have been in the no recession camp which has been right - curious if you are growing more concerned? - inflation coming down / fed seems to be dovishly inclined but economic activity is slowing / housing in recession - i'm just concerned the fed waited too long but curious what you think - thanks
I have heard and read comments by analysts who have said that the tax on unrealized capital gains would apply to all unrealized capital gains, without qualification. However, from what I have read on that tax, it would apply only to investors with net worth in excess of 100 million dollars.
Scott, I am happy to see you are back posting. I thought you just threw in the towel and quit there for a moment. I've been reading your blog for the last decade and I always enjoy your very detailed analysis. You are one of the few people who can cut through the day to day and week to week noise and give a very clear picture of what is happening. Glad your back. Alain from Canada!
In the event Harris wins the election, I would not be the least surprised to see her flip flop back to many of her prior positions. Of course, she would have to concoct reasons for the reverse flip flops. She is very good at that sort of thing.
As an aside, Biden, who has been put out to pasture by the Democrats and not thrilled about that, recent said that the Inflation Reduction Act has not reduced inflation.
Pure Fear in the autumn air as registered across the region's well-known NJ Racquet Club Banter Metric of Rich White Dudes (NJRCBMRWD). Here's the data & exclusive report!
If Trump wins, the US Equity Party continues in a new-Regan Era & if Kamala wins, the smart money sells 80% of their equities as family offices run to the safety of cash markets for a decade+ <- wow!
Who will be the biggest losers? Those having the most equities to lose!
The biggest winners? The Young & the Patient.
Round & Round we go! Where she stops, nobody knows!
Scott- Any post-debate thoughts? I felt like Trump was strong on substance but fell into the old problems on style. Kamala was substance-free, and maudlin in her "I feel your pain" approach. She acted like she just showed up and had noting to do with 3.5 years of failed policy.
Real Estate, Mortgage Markets-
From what I can tell, the 30 year fixed rate has dropped from ~7.9% to ~6.2%. So, there has already been a big decline in this rate.
It looks like we have a lot of potential buyers waiting until rates bottom and start to go up a bit.
The Fed, Treasury Dept, and other cronies have really created an interesting bubble, unfortunately for the average Joe.
There are three basic elements comprising long-term interest rates: (1) a “pure” rate; (2) a risk rate; (3) an inflation premium.
The pure rate presumably reflects the price required to induce lenders into parting with their money in a non-inflationary and risk-free situation.
The risk rate is measured by the yield curve in conjunction with the bond’s duration (counter-party credit quality, & repricing/liquidity, investment alternative, etc.).
The inflation premium is the expected interest rate differential added to compensate for the future rate-of-change in inflation.
The truth is that the inflation premium injected into long-term yields is not a constant function of the rate of inflation. The slope of real yields varies as a function of the supply and demand for loanable funds.
QE increases supply and reduces demand.
QT does the opposite.
And the gov’t is crowding out the private sector (reducing income and raising taxes).
Government stats on economy revised upward. The economy has been better than these statistics have been saying for a couple of years. This brings up a couple of interesting issues 1. is the recent Fed action another policy error? (leading to more inflation) 2. a good economy favors the incumbent party in a presidential election.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2024/09/26/revisions-show-us-economy-grew-faster-2021-23-boosting-real-incomes/
You going to alter this post? Her policy stance has changed. Nice fear mongering. The markets do not seem to fear these policies because divided government will not allow for radical change. Tuck Frump.
Four years ago Trump said if Biden was elected, the stock market would crash. I put these alarmist claims in the same trash basket.
Hi Scott, We miss you! I never write on the message board; however, I miss reading your post. I hope all is well.
In every election there is always the same bull from both parties: those that want tax cuts and those that don't want them. Regardless of what happens, the average person is left on the same spot. They might pass a dumb law that might help but generally speaking the average working dude working his ass off get peanuts from whoever is in office. Put this way, you get sick with a terminal illness and your screw while you still alive if you don't pay for health insurance.
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