Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Export activity continues to rebound

Export activity continues to rise, and that is good news for just about everyone. I've been showing this chart since early last year, pointing out that data on container shipments from the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach were likely leading indicators of overall U.S. export activity. Outbound container shipments from Los Angeles surged 40% last year (the green line in the chart), marking a significant V-shaped recovery in the wake of the collapse of global trade in late 2008. We've already seen U.S. goods exports rise 18% from the lows of April '09, so we can most likely expect to see continued strong gains in the months to come (because shipping data is more up to date than the export data that is reflected in the GDP stats), and this will in turn be an important source of growth for the economy.

The strong rebound in global trade that we have seen this past year is a very good reason to be bullish about the future.


Benjamin Cole said...

Die recession, die, die, die!

We can hope that exports will grow long-term, as the Far East becomes the world's economic powerhouse.

If mainland China ever stops currency manipulation, we may even see a day, perhaps in 20 years, when US wages are lower than China's, meaning they set up factories here to bring back goods to China.

Japan would do that already, but it is cheaper for them to go to China or Thailand and do it, and they are also a mercantile nation, adverse to imports.

Time will tell.

In another 20 years? Who knows, maybe the US can become a manufacturing platform again.

alstry said...


Air cargo demand is up for first time since '08

Benjamin Cole said...

Air cargo through LAX turning north again also.

Dow way off today--would have thought the Mass miracle was a bullish sign.

Sometimes you can't tell anything.