Friday, October 2, 2009

Weekly claims update

This is an updated version of a chart I've shown several times, and which I promised to post today in response to a reader's question. The chart shows weekly claims as a % of the workforce. That percentage dipped today to its lowest level for the year. Comparing the severity of this recession to others based on this metric, we are in better shape now than in the recessions of '74-'75 and '81-'82. The economy is now about 3 months into a recovery with a workforce disruption metric that has fallen to 0.42%. It took almost one year of recovery for that same metric to drop to this level following the '81-'82 recession, and almost 18 months of recovery following the '74-'75 recession.


Jake said...

Compared to the recessions of '74-'75 and '81-'82, this is definitely more of a plateu.

Thanks for posting.

stilettoheels said...

Are you certain that you want to draw any conclusions from intertemporal initial claims data? I wouldn't.

A more illuminating chart would draw the percentage decline from peak initial claims. During this episode claims are down about 16% from the late March, early April peak. Are you up for the '73 and '81 recessions, Jake?