Friday, October 3, 2008
The payroll data released this morning suggest the beginnings of a recession. But considering that the 2001 recession was the mildest on record, and so far the economy has lost only a fraction of the jobs that were lost in 2001-2002, it's a bit of a stretch to say the economy is really hurting. Private sector jobs are declining at the rate of about 1% a year, but productivity (the amount produced by those who are working) has been rising by 2-3% a year, so the net result is that the economy is probably still growing at least 1% a year. It might get worse, but I still don't see the seeds of destruction that so many are worried about.
Posted by Scott Grannis at 10:53 AM