Tuesday, July 31, 2018

Housing market update: slowing but not collapsing

I'm seeing a significant increase of late in stories which suggest that the housing market has peaked and could be in trouble. Not everything is rosy, to be sure, but from what I can see, the worst that can be said about the housing market is that it is cooling off. The following charts tell the story:

Chart #1

As Chart #1 shows, an index of the prices of homebuilders' stocks is down about 25% since last January. That's a big correction that could easily be the start of a major decline, much as we saw happen in 2006-2009. So: is housing history likely to repeat? It's tempting to say we've seen a major top in this market, but I would note that we have seen corrections such as the current one quite a few times in the past. If anything, it might just be the case that prices got a little too exuberant towards the end of last year and have now come back down to a more reasonable. level.

Chart #2
Chart #2 shows an index of housing affordability, which has dropped considerably in the past 5 years. But if you read the fine print at the bottom of the chart, you find that it is still the case that the average family has an income that is more than sufficient to qualify for mortgage big enough to buy a median-priced home using conventional financing. Prices are up and mortgage rates are up, but so are incomes, and the economy is in pretty good shape. All things considered, homes are still "affordable," only much less so than they were a few years ago.

Chart #3

Chart #3 shows that 30-yr fixed mortgage rates have been roughly flat at very low levels for the past six years. For most of my lifetime, today's 4 ½% mortgage rate would have been unthinkably low. Mortgage rates are not a problem in today's market.

Chart #4

Chart #4 compares the level of housing starts with an index of homebuilders' sentiment. Here we see that starts are still substantially lower than they have been in the past, while sentiment is about as healthy as it has ever been. This further suggests that there is plenty of upside to housing construction. On the other hand, starts have been relatively flat for the past year or so, so new construction appears to have run out of steam, at least for now. A pause that refreshes?

Chart #5

Chart #5 shows that building permits still appear to be in an upward trend. By past standards, we have yet to see a frenzy of home building. If anything, new housing construction has been relatively weak and continues to be so. 

Chart #6

Existing home sales also appear to have flat-lined in recent years, as we see in Chart #6.

Chart #7

Chart #7 shows the long-term history of housing starts. As with Chart #4 above, we see that starts are still quite low from an historical perspective.

Chart #8

Chart #8 shows that the inventory of unsold homes is still quite low. 

Chart #9

Chart #9 compares residential fixed investment (i.e., home building and related activity) to GDP. Here we see that residential construction spending is still very low compared to the rest of the economy. Activity has rarely been this low, in fact. Note the surge in activity that preceded the bursting of the housing bubble in 2005. We are nowhere near that today.

Chart #10

Chart #10 shows an index of the volume of new mortgage applications (i.e., mortgages originated for the purchase of a home, as distinct from mortgages originated to refinance an existing home). Here again we see that activity is still far below the bubble levels of 2005. Today, new mortgages are being originated at less than half the rate they were in 2005. Recall that a big factor behind the housing market collapse that started in 2005 was the wild and crazy way that banks were lending: inverse floaters, zero down payments, stated income, etc. Nothing like that is happening today. 

Chart #11

Chart #11 shows the real and nominal level of housing prices nationwide, according to the folks at Case Shiller. Here we see that prices have been rising in line with historical trends. Over the long haul, this chart suggests that housing prices in inflation adjusted terms tend to rise by a little less than 2% per year. This can be explained by the fact that houses today are bigger and better-appointed than they were in the past. Prices today are still well below their bubble highs when adjusted for trend growth and inflation.

One caveat to Chart #11: the Case Shiller methodology uses a three-month moving average of prices, reported with a 2-month delay. Thus, the prices reported today were the average of prices in the March-April-May period, and they were up some 5-6% from the previous year. It is likely that price increases have slowed considerably in recent months, if we are to believe the anecdotal evidence.

Taking all this into consideration, it looks to me like rising prices are the logical result of a scarcity of supply coupled with relatively strong demand. This can't go on forever, though. Prospective home buyers are being gradually squeezed by rising prices, a scarcity of supply, and a decline in affordability. Higher prices signal a relative scarcity of housing (with local zoning codes to blame in many areas, unfortunately), and higher prices are slowing housing activity in general by making it harder to afford a house. But there is no reason to think that prices are going to collapse, unless of course the whole economy collapses. The housing market is cooling off, but not about to collapse.

Wednesday, July 25, 2018

Winning at trade requires zero

Here is some excellent news that just recently hit the tape:

President Trump on Wednesday declared a “new phase” in the relationship between the U.S. and the European Union, agreeing to hold off on proposed car tariffs and work with the EU to resolve their dispute over metals duties, while also promoting bilateral trade. 
Speaking in the Rose Garden of the White House alongside European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, Mr. Trump said the U.S. and the EU had agreed to “work together toward zero tariffs, zero non-tariff barriers and zero subsidies on non auto-industrial goods.” 
“This was a very big day for free and fair trade,” Mr. Trump said. He said the U.S. and EU would “resolve” the steel and aluminum tariffs he imposed earlier this year and the retaliatory tariffs the EU imposed in response.

These are the key words: work together toward zero tariffs, zero non-tariff barriers and zero subsidies. Free and fair trade requires the absence of government-imposed restrictions and subsidies. Trump gets this; he's not a madman intent on starting another global trade war. He knows tariffs are bad and even stupid. But the route he chose to get to the goal of zero was circuitous and risky, and he has been justly criticized on both sides of the political aisle for unilaterally imposing tariffs on our major trading partners. He had to credibly threaten to raise tariffs in order to lower them. This could be the beginning of a new era in global trade and prosperity.

If Trump can convince China to follow the European example, the future will look bright indeed.

As I said in my last post, I continue to believe that tariffs are so universally understood to be bad and even stupid that eventually our leaders will do the right thing and make trade freer and fairer. Why bet against what would be a win-win for all parties?

As it has for many years, it makes sense to remain optimistic about the future.

Wednesday, July 18, 2018

Why are interest rates so low?

Late last year, in my Predictions for 2018, I thought the main theme for the year would be "waiting for GDP." Policy changes in the previous year had set the stage for much stronger growth, higher interest rates, and a stronger dollar, but I thought the market would be skeptical until clear signs of stronger growth emerged. While there is still every reason to believe economic growth is accelerating, the evidence of a new economic boom is still not yet conclusive. The economy is improving on the margin, but budding tariff wars are dampening enthusiasm and keeping risk aversion alive.

Interest rates have moved higher over the course of this year: 5-yr real yields on TIPS have increased from 0.3% to 0.7%, and 10-yr Treasury yields have risen from 2.3% to almost 2.9%, paced by a 0.5% boost to the Fed's short-term interest rate target. That's small potatoes in the great scheme of things. Both the bond market and the Fed have priced in somewhat stronger growth, but these moves are still modest compared to what one would expect from a solid package of supply-side tax cuts and reduced regulatory burdens such as we saw enacted last year. These things take time, to be sure, and we're still in the early innings. Meanwhile, the risk of tariff wars is driving demand for hedges, and Treasuries are the market's favorite port when economic storms threaten. Consequently, interest rates arguably are still depressed relative to where they should be in a robust growth environment.

Back in December I cautioned that higher interest rates would not be well-received, and a month later the equity market shed over 10% of its value in a few days. More recently, nerves have been tested as US-China trade relations deteriorate and reciprocal tariff hikes are announced. In December I thought that further gains in equity prices would not come from higher earnings multiples but rather from rising earnings; so far, the PE ratio of the S&P 500 has fallen from 21.7 to 21.3, and earnings per share (based on trailing 12-month reported earnings) have increased only modestly, from 123.2 to 132.1. Earnings are going to have to continue improving if equities are to march still higher, and that is all part and parcel of a ratcheting up of economic growth that is likely underway but still not yet obvious.

In the meantime, as we await news of unusually strong economic activity, a stronger dollar has accompanied weaker commodity and gold prices, and all have conspired to squeeze emerging market economies, much as I feared. But the dollar is only moderately strong, commodity prices are still quite strong, and the Fed has yet to tighten monetary policy, so the pressure on emerging market economies is nowhere near what it was in the late 1990s and earl 2000s. I think we'll see emerging markets begin to recover, especially as—and if—evidence of a stronger US economy emerges.

Chart #1

The point of Chart #1 is to demonstrate that real yields tend to track the real growth rate of the economy. Currently, real yields on 5-yr TIPS (the best market-based proxy for short-term real yields I know of) are consistent with economic growth of about 2.5% per year. This happens to be only slightly higher than the 2.2% annualized growth the economy has registered since mid-2009, when the current business cycle expansion began. If the market (and the Fed) were convinced that real growth would be 4% or better, we would very likely see real yields on TIPS trading in the range of 3% or so.

Chart #2

Chart #2 demonstrates the link between market-based real yields on 5-yr TIPS, and the ex-post real yield on the Fed's target funds rate. The real funds rate is the Fed's true target, since that is the best measure of borrowing costs. Note that the real funds rate has been zero or less for the past decade, and it hasn't increased much, if any, for almost a year. The red line, the real yield on 5-yr TIPS, is essentially the market's expectation for what the blue line will average over the next 5 years. The market is not expecting the Fed to do much in the way of tightening, but it is definitely pricing in somewhat tighter policy for the foreseeable future.

Chart #2 is also a good way to look at the shape of the real yield curve, which is arguably more important than the shape of the nominal curve, which has been flattening for the past several years (the 2-10 spread is now down to about 25 bps). What we see in Chart #2 is that the real yield curve has been steepening over the past year—expectations of future real rates have risen relative to current real rates. Taken together, the shape of the real and nominal yield curves tells us not that the economy is being squeezed, but rather that neither the market nor the Fed are very enthusiastic about the idea of a stronger economy. 

Chart #3

Chart #3 shows that nominal Treasury yields have been unusually low relative to the prevailing rate of inflation for the past seven years. Only in the past year have nominal yields begun to catch back up to inflation—and they're still relatively low. The fact that the bond market has been willing to accept only paltry real yields for so long is a function, I believe, of a relatively strong degree of risk aversion and a lack of enthusiasm for real growth prospects. Markets have been willing to accept minimal returns in exchange for the safety of Treasuries. In a stronger growth environment, this would not be the case. If inflation holds around 2% and the economy picks up convincingly, I would expect 5-yr Treasury yields to rise to 4% or more.

Chart #4

Chart #4 compares the ISM manufacturing survey to quarterly real GDP growth. If there is any one chart that makes the case for a significant pickup in growth, this is it. Based on past experience, the current ISM reading suggests second quarter growth could be well in excess of the 4% that is currently expected. But that tells us nothing about the long-term outlook for growth. The second quarter GDP release is almost certain to be strong, but doubts still linger about later quarters.

Chart #5

Chart #5 shows the growth rate of private sector jobs. Much has been made of recent "strong" jobs reports, but the truth is that the growth of jobs remains rather mild compared to recent years. The best that can be said is that the growth of jobs over the past 6- to 12-months has increased from 1.6% several months ago to now about 2%. With these kinds of numbers, strong-growth skepticism is warranted. In order to get 4% or better GDP growth, we're going to need a big increase in productivity, and that in turn is going to require lots of new investment. I think we'll see it, but we can't find the evidence yet. 

Chart #6

Today's release of June housing starts was disappointing (+1273K vs +1320K), but as Chart #6 shows, starts can be very volatile from month to month. Strong sentiment readings from builders suggests we haven't yet seen the peak in housing construction, but for the time being housing is not going gangbusters.

Chart #7

Architecture billings have been in positive (increasing) territory for quite some time now, and that points to increased construction spending for the next 9-12 months, according to the AIA. But compared to past cycles, it's hard to see anything like a boom underway.

Chart #8



Chart #8 compares industrial production in the U.S. to that of the Eurozone. Production is rising, but not by much compared to prior peaks. 

Chart #9

If conditions in the U.S. were booming, not only would you expect to see much higher interest rates, you would also expect to see a very strong dollar. However, as Chart #9 shows, the dollar today is only modestly higher than its long-term average vis a vis other currencies.

Chart #10

In past cycles, a strong dollar has tended to correspond to weak commodity prices (note that the dollar is plotted on an inverted scale in Chart #10) and vice versa. But: although the dollar today is a lot stronger than it was 5 years ago, commodity prices are roughly unchanged compared to 2013. That's good news for emerging market economies, since they are particularly sensitive to commodity prices. They are also sensitive to competing returns in the U.S. and other developed economies. Despite the relative strong dollar, it remains the case that real returns in developed economies are still unusually low, and commodity prices are still historically high. So recent concerns about emerging market economies are likely overblown. Look for some recovery from recently-depressed levels.

Chart #11

In the final analysis, the biggest concern these days is the potential fallout from escalating tariff wars. To give Trump the benefit of the doubt—which not many are willing to do these days—his ultimate objective is to lower all tariff and non-tariff barriers, and he believes this can be accomplished only by a demonstrated willingness to do the opposite: Trump is playing a game of "tariff chicken." Chart #11 shows facts that he arguably believes bolster his strategy. In the past 12 months, the US has imported about $525 billion of Chinese goods, while at the same time exporting to China only $135 billion. China is selling almost four times more "stuff" to us than we are selling to them. So, the thinking goes, if both countries jack up tariff rates to prohibitive levels, the Chinese have much more to lose than we do, particularly since our economy is still half again as big as China's. At some point the Chinese will wave the white flag, we'll all agree to reduce or eliminate tariffs and intellectual property right theft, and sweetness and light will return to international trade relations.

We can't rule out a successful end to today's tariff wars, but neither can we be confident that they will inexorably lead to a repeat of the Smoot-Hawley tariff wars which in turn led to the Great Depression. I continue to believe that tariffs are so universally understood to be bad and even stupid that eventually our leaders will do the right thing and make trade freer and fairer. Why bet against what would be a win-win for all parties? (Zero tariffs are an economist's dream, since by facilitating free trade they would be a boon to all countries.) So I remain optimistic, but there is ample reason for many to remain cautious and concerned.

And that is another reason why interest rates remain so low and the U.S. economy appears to be reluctant to take off for points north of 4%.