Thursday, September 16, 2010
The top chart shows seasonally-adjusted (reported) claims, while the bottom shows actual claims. The message from both charts is that the big swings in reported claims in recent months was due primarily to faulty seasonal adjustment. Actual claims didn't rise by as much as expected in early July, and they didn't fall by as much as expected in early August.
Meanwhile, actual claims have been falling steadily since early July, and have now reached a two-year low (see third chart). Claims are actually lower now than they were for the same week two years ago. If this keeps up, claims could prove to be a nasty surprise for the bears.
Posted by Scott Grannis at 8:16 AM