Thursday, September 9, 2010
The big unemployment claims scare that developed last month has now proven to have been the result of quirks in the seasonal adjustment factors. Put simply, the economy was not behaving in the manner that the seasonals assumed. This sort of thing happens from time to time, which is why one should never get too excited about sudden moves in seasonally adjusted numbers like this. (Top chart shows seasonally adjusted claims, while the bottom chart shows the raw data.)
As I have been pointing out for several weeks, the non-seasonally-adjusted claims data has been trending down all year, and did so again this week, reaching a 2-year low. There is every reason to believe that on an adjusted basis, claims are slowly declining, or at the very least they haven't rise at all this year. One more nail in the double-dip recession coffin.
Blogging is going to be light this week since we are entertaining some good friends from Argentina.
UPDATE: I now note that 9 states failed to file claims data, so even the raw numbers here are subject to adjustment. I doubt that there is any sinister news lurking here, however.
Posted by Scott Grannis at 8:43 AM