Thursday, September 16, 2010

Unemployment claims could be the next bull story

The top chart shows seasonally-adjusted (reported) claims, while the bottom shows actual claims. The message from both charts is that the big swings in reported claims in recent months was due primarily to faulty seasonal adjustment. Actual claims didn't rise by as much as expected in early July, and they didn't fall by as much as expected in early August.

Meanwhile, actual claims have been falling steadily since early July, and have now reached a two-year low (see third chart). Claims are actually lower now than they were for the same week two years ago. If this keeps up, claims could prove to be a nasty surprise for the bears.


brodero said...

Nonseasonally adjusted wise this
should be the low.The seasonal
factor was .755 this week.The seasonal factors move gradually up from here
peaking on 1/08/2011 with the seasonal factor being 1.73....The first week in January is always the highest jobless claims number
nonseasonally adjusted speaking...
also the 52 week moving average continues to move southward and will likely continue this progress....

John said...


Your call from back in the summer continues to look good.


Thank you for your contributions on this topic. I find them helpful.