Monday, June 28, 2010

Chicago Fed Activity Index still strong

This is the 3-month moving average of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index. With so many double-dippers out there, I thought it important to highlight an otherwise-obscure index such as this to show that there is very little, if any, data on which to base a recession call. Indeed, as of April this index "suggests that growth in national economic activity was above its historical trend."

HT: Calculated Risk, where you can find a long-term chart of the series as well as more detailed commentary.

1 comment:

Jeff said...

I love your analysis and thoughts that things are getting better. But I have to tell you, with all of the double dip in housing, economies, low yields in the bond/treasury markets, spreads widening in the corporate debt market, IPO market at a standstill, etc. etc....I am having a harder and harder time staying optimistic. I appreciate your grounding as I believe you are looking at the data closer than I am.......