Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Service sector activity not collapsing

Conditions in the service sector in January and February were not as bad as they were in December, which increasingly is looking like the worst month of the current recession. So even though this index dropped a bit in February I would put this chart in the "positive" column, since it seems to be telling us that while the recession is not yet over, we have seen the worst of the news.


Rudolph said...

Hi Scott, great stuff. On another subject I'd love to know your thoughts on the TALF now that we have the details.

Scott Grannis said...

I'm looking into it now. My first impression is that this is a positive. It targets the one area of the fixed income market that is genuinely frozen. More comments later.

Scott Grannis said...

The more I look at TALF, the more I like it. It almost seems like a no-brainer for institutional investors. This could be a very big deal. It allows leveraged exposure to assets that could create returns of 20% or so, and the Fed is taking most or all of the downside risk.