Thursday, March 12, 2009

Economy not in free-fall

Here's a quick chart of Retail Sales excluding autos before we leave to ski The Canyons in Park City. The main point is that the economy is not in free-fall. The worst of the contraction happened in the last few months of 2008. Activity has bounced a bit since then. This supports my current thesis that a) we have seen the worst of the economic news, b) the recession is likely to be over by mid-year, c) the recovery will be unusually slow, and d) the problem with the markets so far this year has its roots in Obama's massive lurch to the left, since it raises the burden of government and taxation significantly and is generally capital-unfriendly.

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