Monday, March 2, 2009

ISM index suggests an inflection point

Over the many years I've used this chart I am continually impressed at how reliable the ISM manufacturing index is as a gauge of the economy's overall strength or weakness. It's plunge from the end of August last year through December came pretty close to predicting the 6% (annualized) rate of decline in GDP for the fourth quarter. Now, in the past two months it has rebounded a bit, suggesting that Q4/08 may (as other indicators also suggest) have been the worst quarter for growth. Although the economy is still likely shrinking, it is probably shrinking at a slower pace, so with any luck we've passed an important inflection point.

If GDP declines at a 4% rate in the current quarter, as the ISM index is now suggesting, that would mean that for the six months ended March '09 the economy will have shrunk about 5% in absolute terms instead of growing about 1.5% as it would have in normal times. Compare that to the total decline in equity prices that now equals or exceeds 50%, and you get a sense for how the financial crisis is much bigger than the actual economic crisis. Wiping out paper wealth is not the same as wiping out an equal-sized chunk of GDP. The most important thing to remember is that all of the assets (people, machinery, computers, software, roads, energy generation, etc.) that were powering the economy along a 2-3% growth path a year ago are still here today. What's missing is a big stack of paper documents that say how certain cash flows in the future were to have been redistributed. Fewer people are working, but they are still available to go back to work once risk-takers regain the confidence to invest in new companies are expand existing ones.

15 comments:

The Therapist Is In said...

Scott,
Could you explain, "What's missing is a big stack of paper documents that say how certain cash flows in the future were to have been redistributed"

Scott Grannis said...

I was trying to say that the huge wealth losses that we have sustained can be likened to tearing up a stack of promissory notes. Stocks and bonds represent claims on future cash flows. They are generated by businesses, but they are redistributed the stock and bond market. When the value of stocks and corporate bonds declines, it is as if those pieces of paper had been torn up. You thought you had a claim on some future cash flows, but now you don't. That makes you poorer, but it doesn't mean that the assets that were going to generate those cash flows have disappeared.

CDLIC said...

Scott,

In contrast to your take that we've seen the worst of the bad news regarding the economy, I submit the following interview by Glenn Beck of Walt Zimmerman from United I-Cap Analytics. I listened to the interview on the radio yesterday as I was driving to dinner. The interview was so interesting, although starving; I sat in my car for about 30 minutes listening. Zimmerman's logic appeared to be very sound regarding the extent to which the following financial/economic crisis will continue (through 2012-2013) with the erosion of stocks (Dow at 3000), job loss (20%), etc.

I look forward to you thoughts if you find the time.

There are four links to the same interview as listed below:
Part 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W8ha5FhoC... Part 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7w3oPl-iK... Part 3: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sG5dKT5GD... Part 4: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFN_PM2Fg...

Scott Grannis said...

CDLIC: I am deaf except for a bionic ear (cochlear implant) that allows me to hear modestly. It's not good enough to listen to YouTube videos unfortunately. And in any event I think your links were incomplete.

Predicting depression and deflation is hardly daring, however, since that is what the market has been expecting for months.

CDLIC said...

Scott:

Yes, I agree, predicting depression and deflation is not daring, however, the way Zimmerman backed up these events made much sense to me; thus, the post and links.

I have copied the complete links below for anyone interested in Zimmerman's interview (I thought they first ones would be 'clickable' but were not).


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W8ha5FhoChI&eurl=http://video.google.com/videosearch?hl=en&rlz=1B3GGGL_enUS306US306&q=walt%20zimmerman%20icap&cts=123592025&feature=player_embedded

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7w3oPl-iKVY&eurl=http://video.google.com/videosearch?hl=en&rlz=1B3GGGL_enUS306US306&q=walt%20zimmerman%20icap&cts=123592025&feature=player_embedded

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sG5dKT5GDSc&eurl=http://video.google.com/videosearch?hl=en&rlz=1B3GGGL_enUS306US306&q=walt%20zimmerman%20icap&cts=123592025&feature=player_embedded

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFN_PM2FgxQ&eurl=http://video.google.com/videosearch?hl=en&rlz=1B3GGGL_enUS306US306&q=walt%20zimmerman%20icap&cts=123592025&feature=player_embedded

Scott Grannis said...

If someone has the time and the inclination they might summarize the key points of this argument for me. Bear in mind I am aware of the arguments that others are making for deflation and depression.

bob wright said...

cdlic,

you can use this html instruction in future comments if you want a "clickable" link:

html code tutorial

Scott Grannis said...

bob: I've always thought there was an easy way to do that, but it doesn't seem very easy if you have to type all those characters.

Eldon Mast said...

Scott,

The Beck links are about 10 mins each of him blathering on and on about how wonderful he his for telling folks to get out of the market at 14,000 and much hearsay about why current events will turn from R to D.

Not much facts and data which is what you consistently post here instead.

Should Beck happen to look at your site and care to even look at current data, he would understand your point about the assets still available to generate those cash flows...

The ISM Manufacturing data is quite compelling and I'd guess this month's non-manufacturing data is going to be even stronger... a three month uptick...

My gut is starting to tell me this thing could turn around a lot faster than I expected just 3-4 weeks ago.

Eldon Mast said...

Scott,

I am also not quite sure how you got to the -4% annualized GDP calculation from the current ISM PMI... doesn't the PMI for February (35.8 percent) correspond to a 1.7 percent decline in GDP on an annual basis?

e/

Scott Grannis said...

Eldon: thanks for the summary. The -4% I referred is just me looking at the chart. The latest PMI number corresponds roughly to -4% growth for the first quarter.

Eldon Mast said...

Scott,

What is the source of the underlying data for the two lines on the chart?

I am still confused by their correlation to GDP in their report to -1.7 annualized and yours of -4

Thanks,
e/

Scott Grannis said...

My data sources are listed on the chart: the Inst. for Supply Management and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. I don't know what the ISM says about the implications of their number for current GDP growth. I've lined up the two y-axes in the way I think best matches the data, so my saying that the ISM data suggests current growth of -4% for GDP is subjective.

Eldon Mast said...

Got it. Thanks Scott.

bob wright said...

Scott,

I keep the html code in a text file and just copy and paste it when I want to use it. I agree, typing it over and over would become tiresome very quickly.