Wednesday, February 18, 2009
We haven't yet hit the bottom, but we must be getting close, if only because starts aren't too far from zero. As I've mentioned before, the level of starts is now so low that further declines have only a negligible impact on GDP. So the big decline in January housing starts is really not significant news, and I post this mainly because the decline has been so impressive from an historical perspective that it warrants attention—this has been the mother of all housing recessions. As Brian Wesbury notes, the current decline in housing starts is clearly not sustainable for much longer, and when it reverses, as it most definitely will, that will be big news.
Posted by Scott Grannis at 7:12 PM