Friday, February 13, 2009

Signs of global recovery (3)

All sorts of things were trashed in the September-November time frame last year, especially commodities and emerging market equities and bonds. I've noted before how commodities appear to be bouncing, and suggested that the bounce is becoming contagious. Brazilian equities, valued in dollars, are now up 44% from their low of last November 21st. That's a nice bounce, and if the global economy continues to improve on the margin, emerging market securities have a lot of upside potential left. Continued strength in gold prices, as I noted yesterday, bode well for commodity prices in general, as gold tends to be the leader.

Full disclosure: I am long EMD and SLAFX as of the time of this writing.

7 comments:

CDLIC said...

Scott,

Below is a link to an excellent graphic video overview by Glenn Beck titled 'An Inconvenient Debt: A Detailed Look at the Latest Monetary Base Figures' (4 minutes in length)

The video overview may be of assistance to those will less knowledge regarding economics by graphically putting into perspective the mounting problem and the disaster the Democratic controlled Congress and Obama administration hath wrought.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=FgJYCpRr5yI

CDLIC said...

Scott,

Excellent article titled 'Obama's Wealth Destruction' from the von Mises Institute.

http://mises.org/story/3331

Slingblade9119 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Slingblade9119 said...

I'm concerned that until we find out who engineered the Cloward/Piven style run on the banks on 9-11-2008 - we will always be exposed to more crazy seismic shocks to the market...probably when it appears to be improving.

some in Washington beleive that a serious crisis presents an opportunity that should not be wasted

Bob said...

Do you read John Mauldin? His current Frontline Thoughts is downright frightening and your opinion would be enlightening.

www.frontlinethoughts.com

Scott Grannis said...

The Glenn Beck graph is somewhat misleading since he uses a linear y-axis and nominal dollars, both of which work to effectively overstate the rise in the base. Nevertheless this is a big deal and something that bears close attention. I've posted an updated chart of the base today.

Scott Grannis said...

I read John Mauldin from time to time. He has been bearish almost for as long as I can remember and he finally got right. I think he is generally good, if a bit long-winded, and I suspect he is probably better at being bearish when others are bullish than he is being bullish now that most are bearish.