Friday, March 30, 2012
Both of these measures of consumer confidence (Conference Board on top, Michigan on the bottom) are saying the same thing: confidence has improved from the abysmally low levels of the past recession, but confidence is still very low from an historical perspective. I think the same can be said for the equity market, where flows into domestic equity funds remain decidedly negative.
So I continue to believe that the rally in equity prices is not being driven by optimism. It is being driven by a reduction in pessimism. It's not that the economy is doing great, it's that the economy is not doing as badly as the market has been expecting.
Posted by Scott Grannis at 10:47 AM