Thursday, March 8, 2012

The jobs picture keeps improving



As these two charts show, there is no sign whatsoever that the economy is weakening. Weekly unemployment claims are down very close to levels that one would expect to see during a business cycle expansion. Corporate layoffs are down to a trickle, relatively speaking. If there's anything missing, it's that hiring activity is still relatively subdued, but we'll learn more about that tomorrow. In any event, there is no reason why the economy can't growth at a 3-4% pace given these numbers. While that won't do much to bring down our sky-high unemployment rate (which has been depressed by the staggering number of discouraged workers who have given up looking for a job), and it won't close our 13% output gap, it is better, I think, than what the market has been looking for, and that's why it pays to be optimistic.


The equity market has been priced to bad news from the economy, and so it has been forced to rally as the economic fundamentals gradually improve, as the chart above suggests.

5 comments:

marcusbalbus said...

keeps improving is your mantra

Dr William J McKibbin said...

The article's reporting that "the jobs picture keeps improving" is really misleading. Based on your evidence, a more accurate conclusion would be "the unemployment claims picture keeps improving." The jobs picture in the US is stagnating at best as evidenced by the US employment to population ratio over the past decade. However, I will concede that the number of unemployment claims is declining in recent months -- more at:

http://wjmc.blogspot.com/2011/07/us-employment-to-population-ratio.html

We all must be careful not to overstate our evidence...

Dr William J McKibbin said...

PS: Foxconn, Apple's manufacturing arm, is currently hiring tens of thousands of new high-tech workers right now -- follow the link below to apply:

http://www.foxconn.com.tw/

Also, mining firms are also hiring many thousands of new workers right now -- follow the link below to learn more:

http://www.staffmine.com/jobs/category/africa-mining-jobs.html

Certainly, anyone in need of a job can apply now for the immediate openings advertised above...

William said...

mantra

Noun:
(originally in Hinduism and Buddhism) A word or sound repeated to aid concentration in meditation.
A statement that is frequently repeated; a characteristic formula or refrain.

As it should be!

clinnovo said...

http://www.yohyoh.com/jobsmill