I'm seeing signs that the huge collapse in commodity prices may be coming to an end. It's not too easy to see in this chart, but the JOC Metals index (steel, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, tin, nickel) has been slowly rising for the past four weeks. This index is a key indicator of industrial activity, so any firming in prices is an excellent sign that the sharp slowdown in economic activity we've seen all over the world in recent months may prove to be an "air pocket;" a temporary drop in demand brought on by a sudden crisis of confidence.
Other encouraging signs in the past few weeks: a bottoming in the Baltic Freight Index, downturn in the dollar coupled with an upturn in gold, and a firming in some scrap metal prices. This is too tentative to take to the bank, but if we see more such signs it would be strong evidence that we will avoid the deflation and depression that the market is obsessed with, and that in turn would be a huge boost to confidence.