This wasn't a monster employment number

This morning the market was apparently surprised by a stronger-than-expected jobs number. Private payrolls rose by 223K in September, vs. an expected gain of 125K. Some called it a "monster" number. From my perspective, however, nothing changed at all. Private sector jobs are growing by about 1.3 to 1.4% per year, as they have been for the past several months. This is moderate growth, probably enough to deliver overall economic growth of 2% per year or so. A nothing-burger.

Chart #1

Chart #1 shows the year over year change in private sector jobs, the only ones that really count. The big story, really, is the huge deceleration in growth over the past few years, followed by relatively moderate and steady growth in recent months. Even if we looked at jobs growth over a 6-month period, the story would be the same. Jobs numbers are very volatile on a monthly basis, so you have to look at growth over a multiple-month basis. And when you do that you see that nothing much has changed of late. 

There is nothing in today's report that should influence the Fed to change course. Inflation is yesterday's problem, and jobs growth is moderate. Lower interest rates are appropriate.