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Wednesday, March 6, 2013
ADP jobs report stronger than expected
ADP released yet another set of revisions to its projection of the change in private sector payrolls that is reported by the BLS. As the chart below shows, ADP's numbers now track the BLS numbers fairly closely. If that track record continues, we are likely to see the BLS change in private payrolls, to be released Friday, come in a bit stronger than the 170K that is currently expected, since ADP's February number was somewhat stronger than expected (198K vs. 170K). Regardless, it is likely that jobs are growing by something like 150-250K per month, nothing to get very excited about, nor anything to worry about.
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Something to consider for Mr. Pink Eyeshades: http://ecri-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/downloads/ECRI_1303_US_Business_Cycle.pdf
I'm reminded of ECRI's mid-2011 forecast of a recession to occur by early 2012. I'm also reminded of my forecast four years ago, repeated frequently since, that this recovery would be sub-par. On that score ECRI now appears to agree with me.
Scott-
I am a long time frequent reader and student of your blog.
Your work is very much appreciated.
Don't worry about Achuthan getting his call right to the exact quarter - worry about your own assumptions.
How about this: half of OECD countries didn't grow in Q4: http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Dwaine-van-Vuuren-130306-World-Recession.php
Since QE3-4 went not effect on Sept. 13, the Dow is up 7.2 percent. Not bad.
Why is QE3-4 different?
It is open-ended. It will last until certain economic metrics are reached.
It is too timid; only $85 billion a month in QE, instead of perhaps double that.
Housing coming back too.
Inflation dead.
Hard to find something not to like about QE3-4.
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