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Beautiful day in Buenos Aires. We're staying in the trendy and quaint Palermo Soho district just a few miles from the heart of the city. Lots of boutiques and restaurants. Time to go out for lunch.
Thursday, April 19, 2012
Buenos Aires
Beautiful day in Buenos Aires. We're staying in the trendy and quaint Palermo Soho district just a few miles from the heart of the city. Lots of boutiques and restaurants. Time to go out for lunch.
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Though it's still early in the month, JD Power just released its forecast for April auto sales at 13.8 million SAAR, down from 14.4 million in March and 15 million in February - though they raised their full-year outlook. Somewhat discouraging.
Looks like lots of weak data coming in today. Just evidence of slow growth or negative growth?
We know the economy is not strong. The question is wether it is entering another recession. Recent data have been on the weak side, but hardly weak enough to be a recession. The market is priced to a recession, so anything short of a recession is effectively positive.
Housing is weaker than Tiny Tim's right hook.
QE3 to the max.
Who is the hot chick?
I just checked JD Power's auto sales forecasts for the past 3 months.
In January they under-guessed by 600K SAAR.
In February they under-guessed by 1 million SAAR.
In March they under-guessed by 200K SAAR.
This month they even made their guess a few days earlier in the month than they did the past 3 months. So I suspect we'll hit 14 million anyway.
Hans: The "hot chick" would be my wife, of course
The "hot chick" is certainly Mrs. Grannis, a lovely lady from Argentina. She's the one who keeps Scott under control and enables him to have time to provide us readers with an excellent blog. Here's hoping you have a rewarding visit to Argenina, Mr. and Mrs. Grannis. Scott, I hope you are able to give us something encouraging from Argentina, something better than we heard earlier in the week.
You luckily man, Mr Grannis, but please make sure she is not nationalized before your departure...
Hope you're enjoying your trip Scott.
BTW, Argentina has been coming out with some decent wines these days.
In contrast to JD Power, Edmunds is guessing April auto sales will come in at around 14.7 million SAAR. That would be much better.
Is there any indication the Argentine public will look for more "liberal"--that is, the classic liberal, free market--leadership in coming years ?
I doubt there will be much good news for SG to report on the economic front. I look forward to more pictures and tales of beef and Malbec.
I note an article over at RigZone.com that Argentina is now looking for partners to invest $10B to help YPF drill for oil. There might be the odd petro-dictatorship that might step up but I doubt it, the likeliest partner, if any, would be China. If the Chicoms ponied up, it'd be on their terms, quite favorable to them. So aside from trashing Argentina as a destination for global capital, Christina may have positioned the country to become far to beholden to the Chinese. We'll see.
Here are some interesting facts about Gentina...
http://www.prosperity.com/country.aspx?id=AR
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