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The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index, "based on real-time diesel fuel consumption data for over the road trucking," jumped significantly in March, erasing what was looking like a very soft patch or even the beginnings of a downturn since mid-2010. The softness earlier this year probably reflected the awful weather back East. This index is consistent with moderate growth of about 3%, which is what most people seem to be expecting these days. I'm seeing more growth downgrades than upgrades, but I remain optimistic that the economy is going to be picking up strength as the year progresses. There is no reason for concern here.
2 comments:
Yeah, it seems like air is going out of balloon here and there.
Some good news is that diesel demand may be reduced due to higher mpg diesels hitting the road. I don't know if the Ceridian-UCLA folks factor that in.
Bernanke needs to err to the side of growth. Still a lot of feebleness out there, and no one is talking boom times.
"Morgan Stanley's researchers have dropped expected real GDP growth in the first quarter to 1.5%, from 1.9%. And Macroeconomic Advisers also cut their projection to 1.5%, down from 2.1%. In January, Macroeconomic Advisers were anticipating growth of 4.1%. But that was before rising oil prices, disaster in Japan, and austerity fever. Real output growth of 1.5% is not very good, it should go without saying. It's below the trend growth rate, at a time when the economy should be roaring ahead at substantially more than trend growth. America still has a real output gap of about $800 billion, not to mention 13.5m unemployed workers to worry about...."
From Brad DeLong. He is a big lib, so there is spin, but the numbers are what they are.
Bernanke, please keep the foot on the gas pedal.
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