Monday, April 18, 2011
Markets get jittery at times, and when they do it's helpful to review the fundamentals. As the top chart shows, swap spreads haven't budged at all in recent weeks, and are only slightly higher today, despite the headline news to the effect that the official outlook for the U.S. economy has been downgraded by S&P, and Greece is on the cusp of a default (which I anticipated a few months ago, based on the behavior of swap spreads and sovereign debt spreads). Low and relatively stable swap spreads mean that systemic risk is also low. Whatever is going on does not pose a serious threat to the health of the economy, or to the financial markets. Europe is going to have to digest a Greek default, but it shouldn't prove to be the end of the world.
As the second chart shows, the Vix index has moved up of late, but it's a pretty minor case of the jitters when looked at in the context of the past few years.
As the third chart shows, equity prices have been recovering to their long-term trends (choose whichever trend growth line you want, the result is the same), but still have a ways to go before raising valuation questions. The equity market has not overshot, and is not overpriced, as I've been arguing for quite some time.
We're still climbing walls of worry, and today's worries should not be too difficult to overcome.
Posted by Scott Grannis at 11:07 AM