Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Confidence improves, but still very low


Consumer confidence picked up a bit in April, according to the Conference Board's survey, but as this chart reminds us, confidence is still quite low from an historical perspective. Consumer confidence is not a leading, but rather a lagging indicator, so the value of this information is rather limited. But it does underscore the points I've been making for a long time, namely that there is no shortage of pessimism out there, no shortage of things to worry about, and it's difficult to find any signs of "irrational exuberance" in market pricing. The market, like the public in general, is still climbing walls of worry. This gives the edge to bulls, as long as the economy avoids significant deterioration. 

7 comments:

Public Library said...

The Sovereigns sucked all of the exuberance out of the market but that does not mean it magically disappeared...

Public Library said...

Btw great headline on Bloomberg today.

'Geithner Says U.S. Won’t Pursue Strategy to Weaken Dollar'

“Our policy has been and will always be, as long as at least I’m in this job, that a strong dollar is in our interest as a country,”

I read this to mean the US is pursuing a weak dollar strategy. Classic government propaganda.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-26/geithner-says-u-s-will-never-weaken-dollar-to-gain-an-advantage-in-trade.html

Scott Grannis said...

With the dollar now as weak as it's ever been, ever, you've got to wonder what planet Geithner comes from.

Public Library said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Public Library said...

He is certainly not reading the market tea leaves on this blog.

Probably getting his disinformation from Bernanke ;)

Benjamin said...

Export growth contributed (some say) about 1 percent of our 1Q GDP expansion, in a weak 1Q when growth came in about 1.5 percent.

Why would anybody want a strong dollar?

Oh please, bring unto us a weaker dollar, and some inflation. I keep waiting....

TradingStrategyLetter - Weekly Summary said...

Be careful of what you wish for!