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The big unemployment claims scare that developed last month has now proven to have been the result of quirks in the seasonal adjustment factors. Put simply, the economy was not behaving in the manner that the seasonals assumed. This sort of thing happens from time to time, which is why one should never get too excited about sudden moves in seasonally adjusted numbers like this. (Top chart shows seasonally adjusted claims, while the bottom chart shows the raw data.)
As I have been pointing out for several weeks, the non-seasonally-adjusted claims data has been trending down all year, and did so again this week, reaching a 2-year low. There is every reason to believe that on an adjusted basis, claims are slowly declining, or at the very least they haven't rise at all this year. One more nail in the double-dip recession coffin.
Blogging is going to be light this week since we are entertaining some good friends from Argentina.
UPDATE: I now note that 9 states failed to file claims data, so even the raw numbers here are subject to adjustment. I doubt that there is any sinister news lurking here, however.
7 comments:
Conspiracy theorist are seizimg on the 9 states that were estimated.
Well......
the 9 states are D.C,Illinois,Idaho,Hawaii,Michigan,Washington,Oklahoma
California and Virginia for a total of 109,578 claims ( based on August
28 numbers)....a 10% error makes the non seasonally adjusted number
387,495 .....seasonal factor was .835.....387,495 divided by .835 =
464,065....still better than expectations of 470,000
On a nonseasonally adjusted basis
California has shown improvement (slow though)
over the last 8 weeks...when California starts to improve...national numbers could show some definitive improvement
Well JOLT me.
Yes, the conspiratorial nut jobs are currently moaning the still better than expectations of 470,000.
Until the preponderance of evidence asserts itself as an upward revision next week.
JOLT...
You do not have a recession when
private sector job openings are increasing year over year....
2010 07 2723.
2010 06 2537.
2010 05 2597.
2010 04 2675.
2010 03 2363.
2010 02 2266.
2010 01 2471.
2009 12 2130.
2009 11 2113.
2009 10 2164.
2009 09 2333.
2009 08 2098.
2009 07 2046.
JOLT...
You do not have a recession when
private sector job openings are increasing year over year....
2010 07 2723.
2010 06 2537.
2010 05 2597.
2010 04 2675.
2010 03 2363.
2010 02 2266.
2010 01 2471.
2009 12 2130.
2009 11 2113.
2009 10 2164.
2009 09 2333.
2009 08 2098.
2009 07 2046.
Very well done! You were one of the very, very few who did not get carried away by the "scare", claiming (and backing it with good economic reasoning) since day one that the spike was just a temporary hiccup. It amazes me how people (and markets) can be so mindlessly jumpy.
Indeed!
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