Thursday, July 15, 2010


Here's a shot of a granite statue of the Egyptian god Horus, found at the Temple of Edfu which we visited this morning. It can be found inside the Temple of Edfu, which is the largest and most perfectly preserved Egyptian temple in Egypt. So big, in fact, that I couldn't get a shot of the whole thing. The next photo is a shot of part of the interior. This structure was completed about 85 years BC. Now I know where the European cathedrals got the idea for big columns.


Bill said...

Great pictures. Looks like a wonderful trip. Can you comment on the "poor" showings from the Empire State and Philly Fed manufacturing indexes? It looks like they have dipped below zero in the past without a recession but it seems to confirm the slowing trend in the economy. Perhaps growth this year will be in the 2-3% range rather than 3-4%?

Public Library said...


Scott Grannis said...

Bill: the Philly Fed and Empire State indices are notoriously volatile. I have never put too much weight on either. In any event, I don't see anything in these indices today that would make a case for a double-dip, especially when the weakness they are reporting is not confirmed by a variety of other indicators (e.g., swap spreads, the steep yield curve). I'm sticking with my 3-4% growth forecast, which is already pretty modest given how deep the recovery was.

pcpb participant said...

Scott, I am a big believer in the woman behind the man. Where is your wonderful traveling companion? I posed the same question the last time you traveled, to Argentina.

-pcpb particpant

Mark Gerber said...

Thanks for sharing your travels! I'm vicariously enjoying the trip!
Be well, Mark

Mark Gerber said...

Looking back at the couple of weeks:
1) Geitner went on Kudlow to whisper to the markets they were just kidding about letting cap gains/divident taxes go back to pre-Bush levels and would cap them at 20/20;
2) Obama used a recess appointment to send a targeted message to markets: don't worry about the $30T in unfunded medicare entitlements, our health care reform law really does let us pull the plug on granny;
3) Obama let Goldman off the hook in a feeble effort to say, "we don't hate business, really we don't";
4) to mitigate possible damage to the morale of his political base, Obama sent Axlerod to kick off their warning that they could lose their majority in congress.
5) Lastly, Bernanke told the markets that he's warming up the helicopter by announcing that the fed has not only concluded that economic growth is slowing, but it won't be much better for at least five years.

Now that the rally is fading, it looks like the markets are going to test these guys to see if all they have is talk. Since it's an election year, I don't see what the administration can really do to change market sentiment. However, Bernanke's helicopter doesn't have to worry about the elections, and is free to fly whenever and whereever the Fed wants.

So, my question is where and when is the helicopter likely to distribute its payload?

Mark Gerber said...

Doesn't Bill Gross at Pimco provide an convincing argument in why the usual measures of the economy (such as those that Scott so wonderfully follows, explains, and posts here) just don't tell the story any more?