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Car sales in June were a bit weaker than expected, but they were nevertheless up 14% from year-ago levels. This series is notoriously volatile from month to month, so looking at the trend is the only way to make sense of it, and to me the trend is clearly up, and at a fairly rapid pace. That's not surprising given the depths to which sales fell—the rebound should be impressive. Nothing here to suggest the economy is "rolling over." I keep searching, but I can't find the signs that point to the double-dip recession that everyone seems to be expecting.
4 comments:
Scott,
Do you think it's still possible for the market to finish 2010 up from 2009? I've read that if it does not, it would be the first time since 1932 that a market did not have a positive year after coming out of deep bear market. On that note, even if this is a "first" and we have a negtative 2010, does it necessarily mean that we're doomed for 2011?
If the economy fails to "double-dip" as everyone seems to expect, and instead grows at the 3-4% pace that I expect, then I have to believe the market would end up with a gain for the year.
I've read that if it does not, it would be the first time since 1932 that a market did not have a positive year after coming out of deep bear market.
Didn't the market come out of a deep bear market in 2009? It recorded a 19% gain for the year.
Total US light vehicle sales in July 2009 were 998,000 because of cash for clunkers. That figure is higher than the June 2010 number of 983,000. Do you really think that there will be over 1 million light vehicles sold this month? I don't. The seasonally adjusted annual sales estimate fell by 6%. Automotive News cites dealers who are preparing for less than a 10 million unit sales year in 2010.
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