Wednesday, September 30, 2009

The employment outlook is improving (2)

Here's another update of the chart I first showed last month, comparing monthly changes in jobs according to both the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the folks at ADP. The ADP data for September were released today, and although they were not quite as good as expected, the numbers for the prior two months were revised upwards (to show fewer losses). The picture we get is the same, however: the economy is still losing jobs, but at a declining pace. At the current pace, the economy isn't like to actually start adding jobs on net until late this year or early next year.

While this sounds like painful progress, it is nevertheless a recovery, and of the V-shaped variety, as the chart shows. Earlier this year we were losing about 750K jobs a month, and now only about 250K.


Bill said...


Does the poor showing by the Chicago PMI indicate this is more of a U recovery than V? Do you expect the ISM index to also drop?

Scott Grannis said...

After many years of following the PMI and its city constituents, I have concluded that it if futile to give any importance to any of the city numbers.

MW said...

"and its city constituents"

Technically they are not constituents, but separate surveys.