Wednesday, August 19, 2009


Went for a walk this morning and did the Kapalua Coastal Trail, which goes past Kapalua Bay (supposedly America's favorite beach, and it is really gorgeous plus it has pretty good snorkeling) and then around the point to Fleming's Beach. The first photo here (taken with my iPhone) is a view to the North Northwest, from just north of Kapalua Bay. The island in the background is Molokai.

The second photo is from the gardens surrounding the pool at the Ritz Carlton, which was our first stop after reaching Fleming's Beach. From there we continued up the hill to Pineapple Hill, then down to Napili Bay. Should have taken a shot of the golf course, the bay, the ocean and Lanai in the background. Maybe tomorrow. The views to be found in the Kapalua area (in the northwest part of Maui) are about the best I've seen anywhere on the island.

Meanwhile, it looks to me, from my relaxed vantage point, like the market is just going through another bout of doubt (or maybe just a summer vacation breather). Lots of people worry that the economy can't improve because a) consumers are tapped out, b) jobs are still shrinking, c) the federal budget is absorbing the world's savings, and/or d) Obama's policies are capital-antagonistic. I'm not saying these facts are erroneous, just that they don't preclude a recovery from a very low base that was caused by a sudden decline in money velocity (the counterpart to a panic-induced rise in money demand). Confidence is clearly returning, and money velocity should be on the rise, and that is going to fuel a virtuous cycle that lifts the economy.


Cabodog said...

Thanks for the post Scott. Yesterday, filled with the very doubt you mentioned. Nice to see the market open on the downside today and then recover nicely and post positive gains.

Tommy Byrne's Blog said...

I love to read your blog from time to time to get an intelligent straight forward opinion on the state of the economy.I discovered this blog after Larry Kudlow made mention of it a couple of years ago on his show. Im a news junkie so when I see a credible source I appeciate it very much. So thanks for being out there. Tom Byrne TBYRNE8875@AOL.COM

Scott Grannis said...

Tom: actually, this blog is not yet one year old. I started it on Labor Day weekend last year. Larry has mentioned it a few times however. Thanks for the good words.