Friday, June 14, 2013

Industrial production lackluster

May industrial production figures show only lackluster growth, and are consistent with the modest-to-moderate economic growth we have seen for the past several years. What the economy is lacking is an improvement in business confidence, and that is not likely to come unless and until we see reforms that reduce regulatory burdens (especially those associated with Obamacare) and corporate income taxes. I think we will see movement in this direction before the end of the year, but for now things look pretty dull and unexciting.


U.S. industrial production has generally fared much better than Eurozone industrial production over the past decade or so. In fact, Eurozone production hasn't experienced any net increase for the past 13 years (since May 2000). Germany stands out as a relative powerhouse, but production there has been stagnant on balance since mid-2011, mostly as a result of the onset of the PIIGS sovereign debt crisis. It is encouraging to see that German production has enjoyed a sizable pickup in recent months, as this may be a leading indicator of a more widespread improvement in the Eurozone economy after more than two years of declining output. U.S. industrial production growth has been lackluster, rising only 1.6% in the past year.


Abstracting from utility output, which has been roughly flat for the past seven years, manufacturing production was up a bit in May but up only 1.7% over the past year.


Production of business equipment has been doing a little better, posting 3.2% growth in the past year, but growing at only a 1.8% annualized rate in the past six months.

7 comments:

William McKibbin said...
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Benjamin said...

This is pathetic.

Cut taxes by a trillion or two, and the Fed should print money to the moon (that is, monetize federal debt by a couple trillion dollars).

We are not going to get any help from Europe or Japan; there are suffocating under tight money.

China may pull a little.

But boys, basically we are on our own.

Make our economy as large as possible. Think growth in macroeconomics policies.

Scott Grannis said...

Benjamin: it would be helpful if you could explain exactly how the monetization of a couple trillion dollars of federal debt would create jobs and expand the economy. Especially since there is no obvious evidence that there is currently a scarcity of dollars in the world.

William McKibbin said...

Regressing real wages to global norms would create competitive advantage in manufacturing for the US -- likewise, cutting government spending by at least 40% immediately would be good for the economy -- all that is going to happen regardess sometime during the 21st century -- we can either fast forward to that outcome and enjoy the benefits, or we can take the slow agonizing path -- the US is too big for its own good at this point -- evidence of scale implosion is rampant within Federalism and its sponsors from the military-industrial complex, the medical establishment, Wall Street, and Federal employment -- scale implosion explains the past, present, and future of Federalism, and provides keen guidance as to how to invest in the future -- as always, we investors should accept the world as it is and go the facts -- watch and learn -- I weep for those lacking world-class skills or means today...

theyenguy said...

The Reuters report Japan machine orders down ... http://tinyurl.com/lwnz2t3 ... suggests that the world central banks’ monetary policies have failed to provide stimulus to global growth and trade. Japan's core machinery orders fell in April from the previous month, down for the first time in three months as companies remain hesitant to boost capital spending despite Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's sweeping stimulus policies. Cabinet Office data showed core machinery orders, a highly volatile series regarded as a leading indicator of capital spending, fell 8.8 percent, compared with a 8.5 percent decline in a Reuters poll of analysts.

The failure of Bank of Japan’s Kuroda Abenomics monetary policies sent World Stocks, VT, plummenting on Tuesday, June 11, 2013.

Nation Investment, EFA, and Small Cap Nation Investment, IFSM, traded lower, on Friday June 14, 2013, as well as for the week, as the Emerging Markets, EEM, and their Infrastructure, EMIF, their Financials, EMFN, such as CIB, BCH, BAP, BSMX, and their Bonds, EMB, have traded lower. Mike Mish Shedlock writes Fierce selloff in emerging market currencies The economies of the emerging countries, such as Vietnam, VNM, Malaysia, EWM, Philippines, EPHE, Indonesia, IDX, Chile, ECH, Peru, EPU, and developing countries, such as Thailand, THD, Mexico, EWW, Brazil, EWZ, Russia, RSX, India, INP, and China, YAO, have abruptly disintegrated on debt deflation, that is on falling currency values associated with higher interest rates, on the collapse of credit, AGG, as the debt monetization policies of the World Central Banks have failed to stimulate global growth and trade and have turned “money good” investments bad. The Milton Friedman Free To Choose scheme of floating currencies has failed. God, through Jesus Christ, Ephesians 1:10, is sending a new scheme of diktat and diktat money to establish regional security, stability, and sustainability, through regional governance and totalitarian collectivism, enforcing debt servitude.

Mark said...

Thank you, eurozone industrisl production improvement would be s worthy indicator
Regards,
Mark

William McKibbin said...
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