Wednesday, November 14, 2012

Retail sales update

After a surprisingly strong September report, October retail sales came in a bit below expectations (-0.3% vs. -0.2%) and September sales were revised down slightly. The net result is that sales are still in an uptrend, and consistent with an economy that continues to expand, albeit relatively slowly.



The top chart shows the level of nominal retail sales, which have risen at a 6.2% annualized pace since their March 2009 low. The bottom chart shows the inflation-adjusted level of sales, which have yet to break into new high territory.

4 comments:

Joseph Constable said...

Adjusted for population growth and retail sales don't look good at all.

brodero said...

Year over year real retail sales is positive...a non recessionary condition...

Joseph Constable said...

The glass is half empty: S&P down 8% from the peak 9/14/12.

The glass is half full: S&P up 20% from 10/5/11 the end of a dip.

Nobody who is serious says we are in a recession. At least not yet, China, Europe, and fiscal cliff willing.

Benjamin said...

This is a recovery only; it is not true growth yet.

The solution is a smaller federal government---including much smaller defense, VA and homeland security outlays---and an aggressively growth-oriented monetary policy.