Thursday, November 15, 2012

Inflation update

Today's October CPI report was unsurprising, showing inflation at the consumer level running at just over 2%. However, from a long-term perspective, inflation is averaging about 2.5% a year. That's not particularly troubling, until you realize that the Fed has been trying as hard as possible to push inflation higher.


The above chart plots the consumer price index on a semi-log scale. As the dotted line shows, the index has been rising at a 2.5% annualized rate over the past 10 years, with occasional periods of above- and below-trend growth. (A similar chart using the core CPI would show that inflation has averaged about 2.1%.) The Fed's inflation target is 1-2% growth in the core Personal Consumption Deflator, and that measure of inflation tends to run about 0.5 percentage points below the CPI. So what the Fed has accomplished in the past decade is to deliver inflation at the upper end of its target range.

There is absolutely no sign here of any deflation, and that is very significant given the prevailing belief at the Fed that weak economic growth poses a risk of deflation. We've had the weakest recovery ever in the past several years, with the economy slipping well below its potential and well below its long-term growth path. The chart below documents this:


In fact, this recovery has effectively shattered three long-cherished beliefs shared by many economists (though not by supply-siders): 1) that increased government spending can stimulate growth; 2) that accommodative monetary policy can stimulate growth, and 3) that weak and below-trend growth is deflationary.

Government is not as all-powerful as statists would have us believe. The Fed can't pull its monetary levels and fine tune growth, and Congress can't borrow and spend and expect that to create jobs. If there's any mystery here, it is that inflation has not proven to be much higher given the degree of monetary stimulus that has been applied already by the Fed. I've explained why that is the case here.

We haven't seen worrisome inflation yet, but that's not to say it won't happen going forward. There is a large degree of monetary uncertainty in the world, and that helps explain why gold is still trading in the stratosphere and the dollar is very close to its weakest level ever. Moreover, it's a testament to the inherent dynamism of the U.S. economy that it has managed to grow 2% a year for the past three years in spite of huge monetary uncertainty and in spite of the threat of a massive hike in future tax burdens (courtesy of four years of trillion-dollar deficits)

These musing beg the question: if fiscal stimulus doesn't work (and it most likely hurts rather than helps the economy), and if monetary stimulus doesn't work (since it only adds to the uncertainties), then why does Congress want to keep the pedal to the metal on fiscal policy, and why does the Fed want to add even more monetary stimulus? I'm reminded of the definition of insanity: doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. Questions such as these are a big reason why economic growth remains lackluster.

A more enlightened fiscal policy would focus on reducing, rather than increasing government spending, and a more enlightened monetary policy would focus on reducing, rather than increasing monetary stimulus.

Until policymakers see the light, it's very slow and steady as she goes, with a chance of higher inflation on the horizon.

This is not necessarily bad for the stock market, however, since I continue to believe that both stocks and bonds are priced to the expectation that growth will be very weak or even negative in the years to come.

7 comments:

steve said...

the reason the fed/fed govt won't do as you suggest can be explained in one simple word: POWER. the fed prints so they can be considered more relevant and obama spends to bribe the electorate.

Gloeschi said...

It's all 'bama's fault

sgt.red.blue.red said...

No matter how you cut it, inflation is stealing from the productive, and giving to the unproductive.

Gloeschi said...

@ sgt.red.blue.red:

Inflation steals from those who cannot protect against it. That includes the elderly living off pensions (I guess you would call them "unproductive") and those unable to invest in real assets. Only the rich are able to invest their assets in a way to benefit from inflation. But, as you said, they are 'unproductive'.

Benjamin said...

There are many who believe that the Fed has not been expansive since 2008, but rather contractionary.

How's that?

Consider Japan, and its yen, and deflation. Yet the Bank of Japan has maintained interest rates at zero, and tried some QE. Still, unless one contends that deflation and a "loose" monetary policy go hand-in-hand, then the BoJ has maintained a tight monetary policy.

The Fed is doing the same thing.

I contend Scott Grannis is in error when he accepts as a premise that the Fed has been stimulative. That is like saying "We have pumped more air into our front left tire than we ever did before Ergo, it may be flat, but we have been appropriately stimulative. Why pump any more air into the tire?"

The Fed Cleveland's inflationary expectations index has never been lower! When inflation expectations set new record lows, I think it is fair to say the Fed is being contractionary.

Fiscal policy is a bad tool, maybe worthless. But there is a great deal of promise for a truly expansionary monetary policy.

Scott Grannis said...

Re the impact of inflation: I would put it this way.

Inflation penalizes savers, the poor, and the unsophisticated; rewards borrowers and speculators; all while transferring wealth from the private sector to the public sector.

Benjamin said...

If you don't like inflation, try Japan.

They have had mild deflation for 20 years. They have also had 75 percent decline sin their stock and property markets and declining real wages, and industrial output has fallen in that same 20 years.

And all that with a disciplined workforce, a strong culture and business-oriented government. (Remember Japan Inc?).

Inflation is the least of our problems, right now.

Inflation is no more theft than deflation or even the mythical zero inflation--however you measure inflation. In every circumstance, there are winners and losers.

The reality is, that in deflation or zero inflation, we are all losers, as economic output is very constrained to reach that sort of price action.