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Not much news on the unemployment claims front, except that the series continues to show no evidence at all of the economy being on the cusp of, or entering, another recession. On a seasonally adjusted basis (top chart), claims remain near the low end of their range so far this year; on an unadjusted basis (bottom chart), claims actually rose by 66K in the latest week, but that was fully anticipated by the seasonal adjustment factors.
5 comments:
The 52 week moving average of nonseasonally adjusted jobless claims continues to move south....
the 12 week moving average of non seasonally adjusted claims has four
distinct points in a year a recession doesn't start unless one
of these points is higher than the previous year...it hasn't happened yet...
There are 110 million employed in "private payrolls" and there are not too many people employed which would cause people to be laid off and an indicator of economic contraction. There are not too few people employed which would indicate future hiring which would predict economic expansion.
Jobs are now a coincidental gauge with no predictive value. Claims, unemployment are noise.
If claims suddenly went down to an average of 350k it wouldn't change the outlook. It just means the net number of people being laid off and hired have stabilized at the lower level.
This is all because companies are achieved efficiency. Jobs will grow step to step with growth in the economy. And vis a versa.
I see no predictive value in claims, unemployment, or number of people employed.
It is a social issue only. In how much comfort do the employed keep the unemployed?
Squire. With regard to predictive value of jobless claims
Have you ever looked
At a 50 year chart of jobless claims and recessions...
There is a reason why almost all economists whose jobs
Are on the line look at jobless claims
Here is an indicator related to job
openings...look at a 3 month moving
average of y-o-y private sector job
openings....
This is exactly your problem. When the SA series ticks up, you point to the NSA series to support your bullish view. In today's case, the NSA series spikes higher. And you argue it's all due to seasonal adjustment. You always have it both ways. Someone could just as easily make the opposite argument the other way around. There is no consistency and logic in your analysis since you are very biased.
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