Thursday, August 4, 2011
Interpreting economic data is an art, not a science, unfortunately. Some people can look at the top chart of seasonally adjusted jobless claims and see that claims remain at relatively high levels historically, they haven't fallen below 400K per week for 18 weeks, and this means the economy remains in terrible shape. Others can look at the bottom chart of non-seasonally adjusted claims and see that they remain in a downtrend, the most recent datapoint was the lowest since September, 2008, and this means that the economy continues to slowly improve. I'm in the latter camp, but given today's equity market rout, the bears appear to be in charge.
Posted by Scott Grannis at 8:15 AM