Thursday, July 7, 2011
This chart of nearby copper futures shows how prices have jumped in the past week, confirming that the recent rally in equities and the selloff in Treasuries have been driven by improving growth fundamentals. Dr. Copper (so-called for its ability to detect and reflect the changing dynamics of economic growth and monetary policy) has been on a tear since early 2009, with a few pauses along the way which coincided with periods during which the market had deep concerns about the risks of a double-dip recession.
Markets are feeling better about the prospects for growth even as yields on 2-yr Greek debt and the prices of Greek credit default swaps continue to show a very high likelihood of a significant Greek restructuring/default. So the Greek debt tail is not likely to wag the global economic dog. Economic activity is likely to continue to expand, albeit at a relatively slow pace.
Posted by Scott Grannis at 10:31 AM